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I think K% works and more important is the K/BB ratio

1) I did work "Somehow" into my statement about Downs. 2) So who replaces Story? Will he be playing both 2B and SS? 3) Unlike Fitzy, Downs in already on the 40 man. And if (a very unlikely if) they deal Bogaerts and give his 40 man spot to Fitzy, what do they do with whatever they got for Bogaert? E-Bay?

Yes, K/9 and BB/9 are kind of usel;ess since no one goes 9. At some point, ERA might face a familiar fate..

Bogaerts won’t command an elite return at the deadline because of his limited control, but unless the Sox are out of it, he’d be more valuable to Boston. Unless Jeter Downs somehow becomes someone who just forced his way into the lineup…

Very true. The save has gone through several alterations. The quality start might need to as well. But right now the I’m not even sure the QS is recognized as an official stat (or what that even means), so redefining it could be simple. And like WAR, it might even vary depending on who’s counting. OBP, for example, was around forever and was never recognized officially until recently, and sac flies have gone through stages of being recognized and not. It’s all very variable…

There’s always a bigger market for team players. A lot of teams already have shortstops, and no one will be signing Bogaerts for his glove. The Sox offered Story more than the reported offer to X. Team player aspect matter? Maybe…

The same ones who were all over Correa for even less?

And there is a big reason. For all of these extensions (especially Beckett’s first but not his second), these pitchers were a lot younger. Most FA pitchers are on the wrong side of 30 and (obviously) have six years minimum of wear and tear. Despite how unpopular it was, history does tell you that Henry’s decision to not extend/sign pitchers over 30 to long term deals did make sense…

What in baseball isn’t arbitrary? They need some quickie guidelines to make everything official. 6 IP and 3 ER. Why not? Why 502 plate appearances? Why 162 IP for an ERA title? I know where the math comes from both (3.1 PA/game and 1 IP/game), but that doesn’t tell me why? And in all of these, the reasons are the same - had to choose something…

With DHern , I usually expect that colon to move one place to the left…

I agree. Even the Sox free agent success stories at pitcher like Lackey and Eovaldi both started off with multiple terrible seasons with the team…

The early returns on the Sox bullpen are definitely an overall positive…

And what I said is just my opinion. Aren’t others allowed them?

Right. You’ve already written this whole narrative about how Bogaerts felt disrespected and didn’t even see the point in making a counteroffer, but really, really wants Boston as his top choice, but the Evil Management won’t let it happen…

Ok if you don’t think the Sox sound serious. But what has Bogaerts done to tell you he is? Negotiations are not a one-sided affair…

Of course it was worth countering. If X has a price that would keep him in Boston, why would he NOT let Boston know? Making them play his guessing game doesn’t make him sound very serious…

Ok but it still covered 4 years. In terms of AAV, it was probably in range. But I have to think a team needs to offer 6 years minimum for X…

Since he didn’t counter, we don’t know what he wanted. But I would imagine the 4 years was the bigger disappointment than the $22.5 mill AAV. That AAV is probably in the range he should be expecting….

I’ve been predicting it all winter. If Groome can stay healthy, he should debut (probably from the pen) this summer. He has a huge advantage over other system pitchers in that he’s already on the 40 man…

First of all, in your own post you admit that Boston isn’t his top priority and money is. I agree and hey, it’s his career. I’ve left jobs for more money, too, and I don’t consider it trailblazing. But Bogaerts isn’t “vastly” underpaid. He is a bit underpaid, but his $20mill AAV is not far behind the only two shortstops within his fWAR neighborhood - Semien ($25mill) and Story ($23mill). It looked to me like X’s only goal right now is to see if the Sox blow him away. Maybe that’s why he never made a counteroffer - he didn’t have a number in mind for what it would take. Even Devers - a full year further away - made an informal counter (“about $100 million short.”). It’s a bit vague but it gives Bloom something to work with. This is a business transaction that fans want to make personal so they can blame someone. Each side has a goal of getting the highes or lowest extreme. The Sox, with Story on board, have all the leverage right now. When X opts out, he will gain more leverage by having other teams to talk to. And if he doesn’t talk to Boston, sure his agent might say the offer was “insulting” or whatever. But really it will be because Boston didn’t make other offers or didn’t increase the years. And really, it is the years that are the problem. Xander might be able to get a better AAV than $22.5mill, but not by much. His ceiling as I’ve said all along is probably closer to $25mill. But I also would be surprised if X wanted to be a free agent again at 33….

Maybe they put a lot of faith in the team after 2021? Sale was a non-factor and the team went pretty far. The big problem with investing in pitching is the massive risks. While people mistakenly claim Barnes hasn’t been the same since signing a contract, they often overlook is pretty much true for Sale. It’s easy to say “get more pitching”, but unless you already have it, there’s too much that can and often does go wrong. And sure, fans want the team to take the few bad years to go along with the fewer good years a free agent pitcher would bring. And ask any fan, they tell you they don’t mind the off years. You know, until they show up. Like pesky credit card bills.

There are some and very few exceptions. Bernie Williams also spurned a larger deal from the Red Sox to return to NY. But Xander has that option for the next 3 years and is instead choosing to opt out. This may have always been his intention, and I don’t fault him at all for it. But it also says staying in Boston is not most important to him. It’s not his top priority. If it was, he probably never even asks for the opt out. It’s his career and his life and he can manage it how he wants to. But let’s not pretend playing for the Red Sox is his most important thing when most of his actions and inactions indicate otherwise…

Varitek did test free agency but ultimately signed with Boston. I believe that was after 2004…

Exactly. A “hometown discount” is really a contract where the players takes less money to avoid other risks before free agency…

1. Every player always says they want to stay where they are prior to reaching free agency. 2. Per Heyman, there was no counter offer. You either believe the report or not, but picking and choosing what parts you believe is tantamount to making up your own story 3. If Bogaerts wanted to stay and especially if that was his priority, they’d make counter offer. There is no other way to make it happen. It looks like Bogaerts wants Boston as long as Boston meets his price. Which means playing in Boston is not the priority for Xander. And really, that’s how every player is. They don’t hire agents to get them on the teams they want to play for…