notin
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Everything posted by notin
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And has played in MLB in parts of 10 different seasons…
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There’s a difference in losing power and declining. The problem with OPS and OPS+ here is Bogaerts has seen rises in OBP, due to a slight increase in BB% but also, this year especially, a huge bump in BABIP (.375!!). Some of this is likely due to the fact that his last two seasons are his two highest for LD% per Fangraphs. (It’s hard to quantify that without knowing exactly what Fangraphs considers a line drive.)
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Bogaerts’ ISO went from .246 to .202 to .198 to .156. That’s a drop in power…
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Think of that viral Javier Baez/Will Craig scenario from a couple years ago. At any point, Craig could have touched Baez or 1b and nullified that run…
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Fair enough. But I will add the caveat that if they do, it won’t work out as expected…
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To be fair, his BA is up a bit and his SLG is down a bit. But I’m not so sure that’s the demise some think it is…
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Why? The Yankees are going to pay $15mill to a pitcher with 104 IP in the last 4 seasons after giving him roughly $36million to injure himself while signing the contract. Severino might not be the same guy they gave that contract to. Even for one year, they’d be prudent to decline the option and negotiate. Severino will NOT be in demand after his lack of action and will certainly not be getting a multi-year deal…
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Two free agent stats that surprised me. OPS+ since 2020 Bogaerts 132 Nimmo 129 And I bet Nimmo signs for roughly half the AAV wOBA since 2020 Betts .377 (14th in MLB) Brandon Belt .375 (15th in MLB) That really shocked me about Belt, although his injury history (which is very substantial) and his poor 2021 season probably put him in the back of even the DH picture…
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Of course. All runs count if it’s only the second out…
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JD has been declining since 2018. Devers came back off the IL and went into an immediate funk. Bogaerts’ RBIs are more likely due to a lost focus on OBP…
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Dalbec was a massive disappointment to me too. I posted something somewhere to that effect on this forum…
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The run would not have counted. The play was still a force out scenario regardless of whether the base is tagged or the runner…
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The box score looked horrible, but he was actually hitting 97-98 regularly and at least keeping it around the zone. The arm has life, and not every debut is representative. The last real flamethrower like this the Sox brought up was Darwinzon Hernandez, and German certainly appeared to have better control than him…
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Very few rookies make an immediate impact. The Sox put a good number of rookies on display this year, but the only one who had 100 PA or 80 IP was Jarren Duran.
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September 17 Royals at Red Sox
notin replied to vegasbob's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
Oh good. Not sarcastic at all… -
September 17 Royals at Red Sox
notin replied to vegasbob's topic in Mike Grace Memorial Game Thread Forum
And it took exactly 4 batters for folks to give up on German!! -
Probably true, but with only 18 games left, he won’t give us a much larger sample size…
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To me the biggest disappointment was Dalbec. I didn’t expect him to be the monster he was last August and September, but I certainly thought he should have improved somewhat over his slow start to 2021…
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JD had a subpar year, but this was looking obvious. X had one in some ways but excelled in others. Devers was having a great year until his injury. The biggest flaw this team had (and had last year) is they drifted away from getting players who get in base. They haven’t had a good leadoff hitter for 3 years now, and that’s the guy who gets the most PAs…
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JD Martinez has been declining for 3 years now. Even he knows this. If he thought he still had any pop, he’d have declined his player options to get a better or longer deal by now…
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Bloom makes at least one trade every year I just don’t expect. Benintendi in 2020. Renfroe after 2021. Houck just feels like this year’s guy. He’s a good relief pitcher, but he didn’t excel in any role this past year, and his vaccination status makes him a liability…
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If healthy, it’s a good team. With normal injuries, it’s a competitive team. But they really just had too many. At one point, Sale, Eovaldi, Wacha, Whitlock and Hill were all out. Losing 5 SPs derails any team…&
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Whitlock, Schreiber can be counted one. Taylor, too, if healthy. I think Houck gets traded…
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But at least only Story is signed long term. Not like anyone added a lot of deals hamstringing 2023…
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I do. Although I know there’s a good chance he doesn’t hit the ground running….
