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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. No. Will any teams even be shopping for 1b/DH types? Besides maybe Boston?
  2. As Mets fans in the 80’s used to say before disembarking for home games - “touché”
  3. You need to write nasty emails about this to the folks at Baseball-Reference, Fangraphs, and StatsInc. I mean, you’ve been speculating for months about what Devers would be doing if he was still in Boston. You need to tell them what you know that they don’t…
  4. He’s probably traded away as many pitchers doing nothing, and most of them were pitchers he’s traded for at some point. I think the only homegrown pitcher Hes traded away are Hunter Dobbins and Luis Perales. Others like Harrison, Priester and Fitts just briefly passed through the Sox system, and only Harrison cost any quality to get. He did give away Sale, but at the time Sale there was no reason to believe he was going to return to Elite Chris Sale…
  5. Am I correct in assuming they’re dictating the responses to you as well?
  6. Well thanks for telling us you’re clearly the smartest person out there and your pure speculation is superior to the entire industry’s mathematical work that you don’t even understand…
  7. In layman’s terms, Devers .706 ops In Oracle is more impressive than Freeman’s .725 OPS in Coors. I wanted a Fenway comp, but the closest I had was Connor Wong’s OPS+ of 103 at .713. That seemed a similar scale to Devers in Oracle…
  8. Just as well as this is not an audible medium…
  9. OPS+ does scale to the ballpark and schedule. Devers OPS+ of 101 (1% above league average) translates to a .706 OPS in Oracle. Tyler Freeman has an OPS of .725, but in Coors that translates to an OPS+ of 95, or 5% below league average…
  10. I don’t disagree with their evaluations on minor leaguers. So few of them carry much trade value. And theyre not the site projecting future performance. That said, still not giving up Eyanson (or Witherspoon) for Paredes…
  11. Agreed. But who for Paredes? Not sure what Houston wants here or what Breslow is offering…
  12. Well, it does. But only the folks on base when they hit one. Alonso has 44 RBI, but 15 of them were himself who was not “on base” to be driven in. He’s driven in himself more than any of his individual teammates, although he has driven in Taylor Ward 14 times. Ward, as mentioned earlier, is having a freakishly good OBP this year. Contreras has driven in himself 13 times, but hasn’t driven in any teammate more than 8 times. Sluggers with 20 HR or more often drive in themselves more than any individual teammates. The fairest comp I use is % of baserunners driven in, which clearly favors Contreras here, 17.6% to 13.6%. For some reference, most RBI leaders drive in roughly 16-18% of all runners on base. And folks say OBP isn’t important….
  13. Paredes continues to be pull-happy with his Fenway swing. BTV gives him a surplus value of $29.2 mill, roughly the same as Anthony Eyanson. I’m not pulling that trigger just yet…
  14. Not fair to compare RBI straight up when Contreras is coming up with fewer runners on base. Alonso has come up with 214 runners on base and driven on 29 of them. Contreras has come up with 147 runners on base and driven in 26. Contreras is coming up with 1 less runner on base every game. And has just 5 fewer RBI…
  15. I hope Braiden Ward makes the 2027 team as a 4th OF / PR. Especially in ghost runner situations…
  16. Maybe. Will Skubal be traded in 4 weeks?
  17. They’re 0.5 games ahead of Boston. But they’re back in the mix and Boston isn’t? Plus thisdeal could happen in the off-season. I first mentioned Torkelson when UtahSox asked about free agent targets, and I pivoted to trade targets
  18. Why the f*** would the Sox want to add another inexperienced player into the mix?! And a left-handed one? Are we getting dazzled by 34 PA stretches from other teams now? All this and more on the next episode of “The Monster is Always Greener”…
  19. I can see reasons why and why not. Torkelson is 26, makes $4mill and has two more years until free agency. His career OPS+ is 101, making him a league average hitter. But his StatCast page is surprisingly red, and this quite often carries greater future implications than past stats. And if I know it, certainly Detroit does too. But his last two years could cost Detroit $10-15mill. Are they willing to see if he plays up to his skill in that time? If they lose Skubal, what is their plan for 2027 and beyond? BTV gives him a surplus value of $2.4mill, similar to that of Tyler Samaniego. I doubt they make that trade, BTW. But I think Boston could get their attention. I’d deal Bello here yesterday, but not sure about Detroit...
  20. Ive argued his AAV is not bad for him as a pitcher, but he’s not anywhere close to the Sox top 5 starters. That Early hasn’t caught him yet in fWAR or bWAR yet is not the pro-Bello argument you’re posting it as since Early still has barely more than half the IP. I wanted to trade Bello last off-season along with Duran. And that was before he was demoted. And even this year Ive wanted him to move to the bullpen and be the RP Breslow should have acquired last November. While Bello insists he is a starter, I don’t know how obstinate he really is, so I’m not going to yet claim he’s being difficult. But I’d move him. Murphy was a close BTV matchup, and I think his hitting since 2023 is a product of injuries and losing playing time to Drake Baldwin. The actual BTV matchup was Murphy (whose surplus value is a couple mill lower than Duran’s) plus AJ Smith-Shaw er for Bello, which I do if AJSS is healthy or close to it. Id also move Bello to Detroit for Spencer Torkelson yesterday. And I’d move him to the pitching-depleted Cubs if there was a march, and I don’t think they give up Shaw in that trade. Bello is outside the Sox top 5?starterscwhen everyone is healthy. If he wants to try relieving, great. But he is absolutely movable and the biggest obstacle is probably his contract…
  21. No Taylor Ward. His .410 OBP looks great, but it’s not only a career high, it’s 50 points above his previous best that was 5 years ago I hope our CBO learns to avoid players in their mid-30s having sudden resurgent years right before free agency…
  22. I figured most would hate Torkelson and his .717 OPS and SLG only slightly better than Andruw Monasterio. But is red StatCast page indicates there is more beneath the surface…
  23. Possible if they keep Duran. No idea if that’s the plan…
  24. As I said, I’m looking to maintain the D behind the plate while improving the O. No catcher plays full time, and Narvaez shouldn’t be relegated to 40-50 games, either. But if you like Connor Wong… I did mention another DH/1b name I thought were get more negative attention…
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