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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    BTV does say it would take more than Duran to get Skubal. With Skubal’s value at $60.6mill ( higher than Duran’s $49.5mill), a BTV Fair package is more like Early, Campbell and Sandlin or Early, Arias and Romero. Both of those do seem fair as well, although who knows what Detroit wants. Now a deal sending Duran to Detroit that makes sense is going to get the Sox prospects only - possibly 2 from Rainer, Jobe and Liranzo. And probably not Jobe…
  2. notin
    There are reports about Murakami’s struggles vs fastballs greater than 93mph. Since I don’t know offhand, what are typical numbers against those same fastballs?
  3. notin
    What BTV doesn’t say is DURAN WILL NOT BE IN THAT DEAL AT ALL. Why would Detroit want him if they are running up the white flag by dealing Skubal? Campbell makes more sense than Duran at that point, and we don’t even know if Detroit likes Campbell. Skubal has one year left. That is a huge factor. Especially since he has reportedly been reluctant with extension talks….
  4. notin
    If the Sox aren’t going to spend, Yandy Diaz is a great plan. The Sox and Rays have made numerous trades over the years. The Rays clearly realize that trading within the division has benefits that trading outside of it doesn’t have. I think for most teams, the philosophy of putting limitations on trading within the division is limited to elite star players, and it’s far from a universal practice that appears on forums…
  5. notin
    Their focus on improved defense is situational. Mayer will not play SS and move Story to 2b or 3b. But not for defensive reasons. Story will play SS so that Mayer can be platooned with Romy and Romy is not much for SS…
  6. notin
    I wouldn’t be surprised if we had just spent more time on Hamilton vs Sogard than Breslow spends all off-season. As for igniting the off-season, the real fun doesn’t even get going for a month and doesn’t peak for another month. And with free agents, the onus is on the player in many (most?) cases, so it’s harder to control the outcome…
  7. notin
    Absolutely an option. But why would that package be built Duran, 3 years from free agency himself?
  8. notin
    Yes, Hamilton was injured. He had a chronic cases of BatsLefthandeditis, which gets particularly inflamed against lefty starters like Fried and Rodon. Abreu suffers from the same ailment, which is why Eaton got the starts. No one is saying Sogard is worthless. But even the Sox clearly think Hamilton is better. Both players had options, but Hamilton got much more PT. And even when Sogard saw action, they put him at 1b more than anywhere else, and when Cora needed an emergency shortstop, neither of these two were nigh on Cora’s radar. But Sogard was even further, playing the position for only 5 innings to Hamilton’s 70. I don’t think they go all Sox themselves are as on board with this evaluation as you are. But hopefully the goal is to push both of them out of the lineup…
  9. notin
    I doubt they go all in and spend the $350-400mill to get Alonso and Schwarber. Henry didn’t spend that much on contracts back when he could have gotten Manny and A-Rod for that money. Doubtful it happens now. The Sox most likely focus is one SP and two infielders. And it’s far more likely to be Alonso OR Bregman than Alonso AND Bregman…
  10. notin
    Based on what? Gausman/Bassett/Berrios/Lauer/Scherzer/Francis - 8.8 bWAR Crochet/Bello/Sandoval/Dobbins/Crawford - 9.2 bWAR. And that includes the 0 bWAR from Sandoval and Crawford’s, neither of whom even pitched…
  11. notin
    Fairly certain Detroit can’t envision the trade, period. It makes zero sense for them to trade for Duran to compete while trading away the pitcher that makes them competitive…
  12. notin
    I could see them revisiting Arenado at 3b if they can move Yoshida for him. Alec Bohm is another reportedly available candidate I could see happening. This does assume Alonso at 1b. I’ve been thinking Bregman is more likely than Alonso, but Alonso is probably the cheaper of the two, which does certainly work in his favor…
  13. notin
    Did you see the rotation that got to the World Series from the American League?
  14. notin
    I have my doubts about Henry committing over $500 to 3 infielders this off-season. And where does Mayer play? Worcester?
  15. notin
    If all 3 are on the 26, it only happens if there is a Hamilton/Gonzalez platoon at 2b. At least that Yos the best case scenario for all three being there, but it’s still not a desirable outcome…
  16. notin
    The Sox are not keeping all 3 on the 26 man roster, unless Hamilton is part of a platoon at 2b again. There are only going to be 3 non-catcher bench spots, and Romy owns one of them. Of course, Grissom was far and away the best MiLB hitter of this bunch. I’m sure Boston would like nothing more than to see him bounce back, even if it’s just a utility INF role. (And if that happens, cue the stupid commentary that the Sox only kept him to save face after the Sale trade.)
  17. notin
    Based on what? Other than a desire to promote Sogard baselessly? StatCast had Hamilton in the 73rd percentile for range. Sogard didn’t have enough data for a ranking, but reports on him indicate his arm and range are average and he is playable at SS short term. Now an average arm is better than Hamilton (37th percentile) has, but that might be Sogard’s only defensive advantage. I’m not quite ready to compare Sogard to Ripken after 56 innings at SS over a two year period, including all of 5 innings last year. Offensively, MLB playing time is heavily skewed towards Hamilton. But both players’ career minor league OPS’s were exactly .770, and nearly identical OPS and OPS+ in MLB. Switch hitter or not, offense is probably where these two are closer to equal…
  18. notin
    Spend? Yes. As much as fans want? Different story…
  19. notin
    Sign Polar Pete Alonso Trade LHP Brandon Clarke (BA #81) and INF Mikey Romero to St. Louis for 2b Brendan Donovan. (Fair trade on BTV) Trade Boston gets: RHSP Joe Ryan, C Ryan Jeffers Minn gets: RHP Andrew Painter, CF Justin Crawford Philly gets: CF Jarren Duran (BTV calls this Major Overpay by Boston) Thoughts?
  20. notin
    Reportedly Joe Ryan is still on the Real Life Radar. Whereas Hunter Greene exists only in clickbait articles…
  21. notin
    I’m assuming Duran nets a prospect (or two) in a trade, so that prospect (or two) is flipped far the “#2 starter” or replaces a prospect pitcher that dealt. My inner child is contemplating referring to #2 starting pitchers as Laxative Pitchers. Maybe I need to grow up a little…
  22. notin
    Bloom avoids that deal because of the attached QO. Think Breslow follows suit?
  23. notin
    The rotation has one hole in it. The Sox have 11 SPs on the 40 man roster already, and reportedly want to add one more. Assuming everyone is healthy, they would add one SP to Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, and Crawford. Meanwhile Early, Dobbins, Harrison, Tolle, Fitts, Perales, and Houck sit on the 40 man roster. (Houck cannot be moved to the 60 Day IL until March.) They might bump a couple (Fitts? Perales?) to the bullpen, and maybe make a trade involving one or more. But until that happens, 12 SPs on the 40 man is a lot…
  24. notin
    I like the idea of Bregman/Bichette because cheap 1b production is easier than other positions. But someone like Alonso will get a cheaper contract than Bregman/Bichette, so maybe he’s more likely? We shall see. I also figure 4-5 years from now, I will be happier with Alonso than with Bregman…
  25. notin
    But you seemingly focus primarily players who excelled in Arizona and nowhere else recently…
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