Doesn’t PECOTA make projections by comparing players stats at similar ages and assume they will match up at later ages? So for, say Wilyer Abreu’s age 25 was similar to former journeyman Jon Nunnally, the PECOTA system assumes their age 26 season’s will align as well.
i know every projection system has flaws (except the remarkably accurate WAPM) and anything designed to predict the future is going to be wrong at times,, but the PECOTA system just feels lazy…