notin

I could make that happen by cutting him off my fantasy team…

Many take shorter offers or have opt outs because they do want to try free agency. That’s why I’m thinking he goes 3-5 years tops. Hit free agency at 31 and he could still get PAID.

Foxx at 18?!?! Behind Parnell, Nomar and Lester?!?! Jimmie Foxx is so underrated in baseball history. Second player to hit 500 HRs, and retired as #2 all time on that list. He joined the Sox later in his career, but still played 887 games for Boston and had a 1.034 OPS in them. Oh and he once hit 50HRs on a team that didn’t hit 100 hrs. (1938 Red Sox) Pretty sure he’s the only name on that list in MLB history…

I’m sticking with Alcantara as a good comp. Same age. Similar careers to date. Same salary for the age 26 season. I do think 5 yrs $55mill is light, but it’s probably a closer starting point than many think. I’m thinking a 4 yr $80 mill extension. Crochet gets security and had a chance to test free agency before it’s too late…

How many for Yamamoto? I don’t see Yamamoto as a comparison at all. Glasnow was 2 years older when he extended, but that was too different. Crochet will be two years older than Yamamoto but he’s the benchmark? I think too many are hoping the Sox avoid Lester 2.0 by overbidding massively…

But 27yo free agents, while far from common, are not unheard of. It does seem like many pitchers on track to reach free agency that young do extend beforehand, but also sign extensions short enough to still enter the free agent market at an age commensurate with their peers…

Vlad’s reported contract demand of $450mill will be a much bigger obstacle than the 2 years $36mill left on Yoshida’s deal when Vlad hits the market…

For performance, MLB certainly should have more weight than Japan. But what about for durability?

It definitely seems that way with the years…

Especially since they made the postseason that year and Strasburg didn’t pitch in their one series…

I can’t find anyone, and it’s also difficult to find pitcher extensions greater than 5 years. Maybe a good parallel is Sandy Alcantara. After his age 25 season, he had 4 years of service time and only 486 IP, and was coming off a 4 bWAR season. He had some injury issues the first few years but no TJ. (He has had one since.) His extension was 5 years $55mill. Certainly inflation and baseball economics would dictate Crochet top that AAV, but double it? And for longer? The only pitcher my limited research has found to get a contract extension longer than 5 years was Jose Berrios. That’s the list…

Potential payday of $250million? Where did that number come from? Only 4 pitchers in history have received contracts that large. Shohei Ohtani (an obvious unique case), Yamamoto (who was 25; Crochet will not be a free agent at age 25 and has less experience and an arm surgery), Gerrit Cole, and Stephen Straburg (it was actually $245mill, but close enough. Also a strong contender for the worst contract in MLB history, as Strasburg only pitched 31 innings on it before injuries ended his career. Washington still owes him $70mill over the next two seasons.) Ohtani will very likely see his pitching career end before that contract does, but he can clearly contribute other ways…

The difference is the bidding war for Yamamoto actually happened and isn’t some conditional future possibility like it is with Crochet…

No, he bundled it with his home and auto…

Yamamoto had about 900 IP in Japan and had his salary determined by a multi-team bidding war. I stand by my Tyler Glasnow comp as the closest so far…

I think Hanley did actually get hurt. Once he banged up his shoulder, he went from early MVP candidate to long term Manchurian Candidate…

Contractually bound? And gagged?

Throws hard. Works cheap. His problem is he couldn’t find the strike zone if he bought a house in it and moved there..

Hopefully one or both are locked up long before then…

To get Casas?

I don’t think they will be including any top pitching prospects. Casas himself is the motivating acquisition for them. And Herrera is the big get for the Sox…

And how much guaranteed?

Yes because the Red Sox love waiting 4-5 years for pitchers with 8 figure AAVs to return to form. Just ask Chris Sale…

It’s a much higher risk for pitchers. And even greater for pitchers who have already had one TJ surgery…

I don’t think it’s a matter of seeing more of him. I think it’s a matter of mitigating risk in terms of years. I think 6 years is the absolute maximum, and a 3-5 year extension is more likely. (I’m assuming 2025 is already taken care of, so everything starts in 2026.) I don’t see how what he would earn in free agency is relevant; the entire point is to pay him less and Crochet’s goal is to get earlier security. And as Crochet has openly stated he wants an extension, I would guess these free agent prices won’t ever come up beyond this thread. The Sox aren’t desperate here because of what they traded to get him; it was fair compensation for 2 years of an elite talent. Crochet likely isn’t desperate either, but again, has expressed willingness, which could mean he knows he won’t be getting paid like a free agent. I think they get him extended before opening day, and it will be in the 3-5 year range. Money is tough to determine; I don’t know what Crochet will settle for. But I would throw out a range in the $22-25mill AAV, presumably with the AAV going down as the years went up. I am not going to speculate on team options, but they are more likely than opt outs, because it’s the Sox looking for protection whereas Crochet should be looking for security. If the Sox added one or two very high AAV team options, it might make sense for both sides. I’m talking $26-30mill AAV team option(s).