Billy Beane’s ethics are irrelevant here. And sure the film absolutely Hollywooded stuff up. I didn’t read the book c but I had my doubts Beane drove to Scott Hatteburg’s house and handed him a contract; Hatteburg did have an agent. (The whole Art Howe story was very likely pure fiction in an attempt to create a movie villain.)
Let’s break down spending/winning. It absolutely can help, but the mere act of spending doesn’t help. And I don’t just mean “spend on good players. Duh!” If you do spend on good players, teams like the ones Bellhorn highlighted often have a steady stream of minimum wage talent in play to keep the team good and within even the craziest budget. The Dodgers do this. The Astros do this. The Angels? Not so much.
Also, spending on extending your younger stars is much, much better than free agency. Free agency is often for players over 30 on the downside of their careers.
And lastly, don’t go too many years. You wind up with heavily paid non-contributing broken down players that detract from the team. It’s one thing if they won early in those contracts. But if they didn’t, they just prolong the bad streaks.
And players getting worse over time is inevitable. The Verlander Exceptions do not disprove this. As much as we all miss Mookie, he’s not been anywhere near the player he was in Boston (42.4 bWAR in 6 years) since going to LA (27.5 bWAR in years)…
Although to be fair to Mookie, it’s really more like 4.4 years. 2020, etc. So he’s down from being a 7 win player to a 6 win player, but he still has 7 years to go…