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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. notin
    And while refresh time between exertions can be a factor in injuries, we’re not talking about enormous samples here. If we limit it to UCL injuries, we see how many per year in MLB? 10? 20? Out of the maybe 609-700 pitchers who will appear in MLB each year? Not every pitcher had to change their pace for the pitch click. Are these 10-20 affected pitchers ones that had to change? And by how much? Were they starters throwing 150 IP? Or relievers just throwing 50-60IP? How much refresh time is safe? Was 20 seconds ok and 15 unsafe? Does it vary from pitcher to pitcher? Did just a couple of seasons of using the pitch clock provide enough time for damage? Especially considering the numbers really haven’t spiked that much? Maybe 5-10 years down the road, more will be known. Right now it’s just looking at correlation and calling it causation. Might as well observe pitcher injuries increasing since Russia invaded the Ukraine and blame Putin for the rise…
  2. notin
    Do me a favor. Don’t repeatedly tell me about always having to be right when I’m not the one floating unsupported theories and getting angry when they’re openly questioned by people supplying actual data (which was ripe for questioning). And while I agree data can be manipulated and misinterpreted, that doesn’t mean the floor is open to any and all crackpot theories being accepted as facts. Just because you hate the pitch clock doesn’t mean it’s actually causing any issues…
  3. notin
    At a minimum, I’d say it’s too early in the pitch clock era to see if it’s a contributing factor. These injuries are largely ergonomic and don’t happen in a few starts. The tendon gets stretched like a rubber band with each pitch and tears happen over numerous cycles. Knocking off a couple seconds for 1-2 seasons worth of starts is a complete unknown as a contributor….
  4. notin
    Because I’ve looked into this and seen the data. The worst year for TJ surgeries was 2021, which was before the pitch clock was implemented in MiLB (2022) and in MLB (2023). https://www.leanblog.org/2024/04/theres-no-special-cause-of-common-cause-variation-tommy-john-surgeries/ This has been pointed out to you before, but somehow you keep indsisting you’re right and the rest of the world is stubborn. If you have any data that suggests otherwise, please share. If you have reasons to doubt the claims made by this blogger with medically-questionable credentials (besides those reasons, I mean), again, like to hear it. But if you’re just going to repeat some unsupported hypothesis as truth because it meets your definition of common sense and label everyone else as obstinate for not seeing this, then you should accept all criticisms because you’re clearly inviting them…
  5. notin
    Plenty of pitchers have seen their routine unchanged by the pitch clock and gotten injured anyway…
  6. notin
    Pitchers throw harder than they did 10 years ago. And this all starts at younger ages. You have kids in high school throwing 98mph (yes, you do). You don’t need to throw 98 mph to get high school hitters out. But throwing that hard at that age does get you noticed by Division I college coaches as well as by MLB scouts. It’s all about scholarships and signing bonuses. But by the time these kids get to MLB - a big if in itself - they’ve been straining their tendons with 98mph fastballs for 7-10 years. Injuries become more likely with every pitch, and at some point, that tendon just snaps from shear overwork…
  7. notin
    So are you arguing Cora shouldn’t move Devers down in the order because Abreu hits differently in those spots? Why not use Devers’ numbers? Other than that they show no such disparity and ruin your argument, I mean?
  8. notin
    The rise in bullpen dependency was a bigger factor…
  9. notin
    Well, they do award Wins to hitters now; they just award them in comparison to replacement level players…
  10. notin
    So you’re saying you doubt that a hitter with a .385 OBP will be on base more than a hitter with a .287 OBP? What do you think OBP stands for? You wanted proof Devers would have more RBI chances. OBP alone puts Bregman on base one more time FOR EVERY 10 PLATE APPEARANCES than Rafaela. How is that NOT proof?
  11. notin
    And the reality of it is that W-L records for pitchers are almost meaningless and certainly not reflective of the pitcher’s talent…
  12. notin
    I don’t get this argument. Devers has driven in Ceddane Rafaela 16 times. Rafaela has a .287 OBP. Devers has driven in Duran 15 times. Duran has a .322 OBP. But somehow someone is trying to argue that the .287 OBP and the .322 OBP hitters would be on base for Devers more than, say Abreu (.336 OBP) and Bregman (.385 OBP). Really? This isn’t Rocket Science or Nerd Math. This is “Are You Smarter Than A Fifth Grader Being Asked Questions In A Language He Doesn’t Speak?” type stuff. The only possible argument here is “Bregman would clear the bases more often and leave Raffy with no one on.” But thsts really not a good defense unless you cheer for Devers’ stats more than team wins…
  13. notin
    Judge might not be the best example to prove your point. Judge has 19 HRs and 48 RBI. That means he has driven in 29 baserunners this year who are not himself. For some perspective, Jarren Duran has driven in 30 (4 HRs, 34 RBI). Thats not science. It’s math and it actually happened…
  14. notin
    Channeling your inner Dan Quayle? It’s been a long time since anyone has busted out a good Quayle reference. (For those of you may have never heard or forgotten about the former Vice President of the United States because you’re too young, too old, or too Canadian, Mr. Quayle actually thought folks in Latin America spoke Latin. And this man was one plate of bad clams away from being the Leader of the Free World.)
  15. notin
    Mookie was going to be a free agent after 2020 anyway. I wouldn’t pin that on Cora. Mookie should have been extended long before 2019 even started…
  16. notin
    As the decades-old baseball adage goes “if your starting pitcher for the third game off the season is Ryan Weber, the first two games were already a waste of time”…
  17. notin
    Whats weird is when you answered about two DHs and a rover, I read that and immediately attributed it to 5Gold…
  18. notin
    My question if the Sox want to improve the offense - maybe buy some torpedo bats? Especially for players like Wong, Gonzalez, Toro (who has a .976 OPS since his May 9!! WTF!?), and Hamilton. You know, players with something at stake here….
  19. notin
    So you think the Sox should ignore cheap, easy, FREE proposals that could be done today until after the trade deadline? If the Sox had some Roman Anthony-equivalent pitching prospect (or even a Jhostnyxon Garcia-equivalent) I could see prioritizing their promotion. But the Sox don’t. All pitching upgrades are likely to come from other teams, many of whom are not ready to make deals yet. So what’s the advantage of waiting on promoting Anthony here?
  20. notin
    If you’re equating changing up the Sox offense to “re-arranging deck chairs ON THE TITANIC”, can you at least acknowledge it’s a problem? Even if it isn’t the biggest problem, that doesn’t mean it should get ignored, especially for proposed internal solutions that can happen long before any team cares to trade with Boston. I mean, I wasn’t there, but I would bet anything that, while the ship was sinking, not a single crew member said “Hey!! Who’s been f***ing with the chairs?!??” …
  21. notin
    Isnt that what happened to John Denver?
  22. notin
    Agreed, but I’d feel better about them if they had a healthy and much less hittable Houck…
  23. notin
    Just because Devers isnt the problem doesn’t mean he can’t be part of the solution. Devers has come up with 168 runners on base this year and driven in 38 of them (plus himself 12 times), making for an insane 22% of runners driven in. I can’t get exact numbers on how many men have been on base for Sox cleanup hitters this year, but it’s definitely higher than that, given thats a shade above league average of 159 and Devers himself has been on for following hitters 95 times. If he can continue driving on 22% of all runners, certainly he could top his current 50 RBIs. Granted Devers and his .400 OBP wouldn’t be there, but pushing him further behind the guys batting 8th and 9th should help enough. Id be surprised if Cora moved him down, but the idea isnt without merit. But I think Cora is happy begetting 38 more PAs from Devers…
  24. notin
    Will the Sox be calling up the entire Worcester team?
  25. notin
    Devers soured Cora on the whole idea…
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