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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. How about three years with opt outs after years one and two, but in each case the Sox have a “no, you’re opting back in” clause?
  2. I’ve been saying something close to a Chourio deal(8 years $82mill) makes sense for Anthony. Same age, same position, same ranking (or close enough). I think Campbell probably gets priced similarly. He’s a little older and slightly lower ranked, but neither difference is substantial enough to make a big difference…
  3. Sportrac has it as the 17th highest AAV in the game, between Mookie Betts and Tyler Glasnow. https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/contracts/ Glasnow, who received a 4 yr $111 mill extension recently, might be a reasonable comp. He has a longer performance history, but nothing as good as Crochet’s 2024. He also carries similar injury history and risks…
  4. Despite the bulk of the posts that want Crochet to be among the 20 highest paid players (by AAV) in the game already, “more evidence” translates into more dollars for Crochet, which is the opposite of the Soxgoal here…
  5. Tanner Scott is, but he’s a fit for everyone. I still think Bregman will happen…
  6. It is insane. You want Crochet to delay his free agency, but that didn’t mean you give a pitcher with 220 IP and one TJ in his history a larger and longer deal than you gave Chris Sale, where the Sox bought out one year of arbitration but he had a much, much bigger and better track record that included more years as a Cy Young runner up than Crochet had as a starting pitcher. Pitchers like Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene both extended for much, much, much less. Their extensions were less combined than $170mill. The Sox leverage here - which Crochet is well aware of - is that Garret is one torn ligament away from his career ending prematurely and not making anything. His AAV isn’t going to be greater than what Max Fried got in free agency with multiple teams bidding for his services. We know Crochet is aware because he wanted an extension done on any trade made last July. He’s eager, likely because he knows the risks. And Crochet has already agreed to $3.8mill. His 2025 salary is established. Now the Sox need to buy out that one last year plus the first few in free agency. I don’t think they need to go to six years here. And I doubt they do. A shorter 3-4 year deal (starting after 2025) is more likely and removes some of the risk for both sides…
  7. Best stuff in the game, but only 219 career IP and one TJ surgery in his past. A contract in the neighborhood of 4 years $80-90 mill is better than extensions given to Spencer Strider and Hunter Greene. (Is Greene a fair comp for Crochet? He signed a 6 yr $53mill deal two years ago.) And any extension Crochet gets will be closer to those pitchers than to what Max Fried got in free agency…
  8. Free agency is getting to the point where a 7 year $200mill contract doesn’t look outlandish anymore. I think the versatility is to ensure they have SOMEPLACE to play and the Sox don’t have to limit their key acquisitions to players that won’t block a top prospect…
  9. I think part of the reason Casas is so available right now is the Sox want to clear the way at 1b for another player already on the Red Sox. I don’t think they want to go get another 1b. It will be Casas or Devers in 2025 (barring injuries)..
  10. Seems insane. Why are people throwing around free agent deals for arb-eligible pitchers? And why do others prefer to wait? The whole point for Boston is to get the best deal for themselves. Right now, with him only having one season as a starter, Thats not much date to know how good he is. But that also applies to Crochet’s agent. Wait another year, and if he excels, he gets more expensive and more confident he can reach free agency without getting hurt. The Sox might be able to sign him for Rick Porcello money right now. But 12 months from now? If Crochet is still willing to accept it, the Sox should probably pass. But going 6 years $170 when this already has potential to go further south than the Sale contract? Fewer years and maybe half that money at this stage…
  11. Vlad is younger, but they’re closer as hitters than I realized…
  12. Pedro? You mean Vlad Guerrero? Not to be confused or related to former Dodger Error Machine Pedro Guerrero. I’m starting to wonder if Bregman isn’t the right guy. Vlad is already asking for $450mill, and I’m guessing he won’t want $15mill per for 30 years. If Bregman is looking at $200 over seven, it’s probably an easier deal for the Sox to live with…
  13. After 10 years of a 123 OPS+, two years of 104 is a massive reduction in hitting. And he’s not likely to get better from ages 34-36. Now Bregman might make more sense. Sure you’ll need to sign him for 3 years at the end of his deal when he goes into declined. But at least you get the 4 years upfront when he contributes. With Arenado, you’re just skipping to those last few unproductive years…
  14. Freddy Peralta? Not so sure the $15mill contract is going to do it…
  15. The Sox need a catcher, a 3b, and another bullpen arm wouldn’t hurt. Unless it’s Chase Anderson…
  16. f*** Arenado. He stopped hitting 2 years ago and has 3 years left. For the last 2 years, his OPS+ is 104 and his remaining contract is $65mill. Why would anyone trade $10mill more for league average production? Just bench Yoshida and play Grissom at 3b, and it’s close enough while being much, much easier to undo.. And if the Sox are going to (hopefully) upgrade the 3b defense and not trade Casas, then just bench Yoshida. We’re long past the point where his $18mill salary isn’t even considered expensive. Teams are benching players with similar salaries around the league. It’s not even a big deal anymore…
  17. It seems like fans fixate on weaknesses they don’t like or weaknesses on players they don’t like. I will admit when it comes to Casas, but I don’t like his defense or his durability. But yes, he can hit…
  18. Vlad Guerrero Jr. has one year left on his deal and has set his contract price in the $450mill range. Also, if Vlad was an option at 3b, Toronto would have kept him there. They didn’t move Guerrero to 1b to accommodate Ernie Clement…
  19. I think it’s funny that the only way the Blue Jays can attract free agents is to pay full price for players not healthy enough for Baltimore, a team that some 72 hours earlier signed Andrew Kittredge, who himself has had his share of recent injury problems. (But not in 2024.)
  20. Seattle turned that deal down because Boston was including Yoshida and his $55.6 mill remaining on his deal…
  21. Lumping injured guys (Slaten, Campbell) in with the TJS crowd feels like piling on. Every team has pitchers that got injured last years, and plenty of them. But not all of those teams have as many rebuilt elbow ligaments as Boston does…
  22. I don’t see how trading Casas, yet to reach his arb years, constitutes cheapness. Unless the counter argument is the Sox should just release Yoshida. As for the stupidity of it, I’d at least want to see what he gets dealt for. But on this thread, Casas is a vital cog to the offense? There’s another one where he’s an unreliable klutz who can’t swing a bat without ending up on the injured list…
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