notin
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Everything posted by notin
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No, it’s only pitching matchups, since that’s all Cora mentioned. If the pitching matchups dictate that David Hamilton start over Connor Wong, then Hamilton is going to gear up between at bats… -
You specifically added the part about NOT trying to make the defense better? That’s a really big assumption on your part. Just because he uses pitching matchups doesn’t mean it ends the. He can still consider defense. And it’s a dumb assumption on your part. Cora could use pitching matchups to determine who plays, and THEN put those players in his best defensive arrangement. Like O’Neill in RF when necessary. The “quote” also seems like BS. Cora plans days off for players sometimes before opposing pitchers are announced…
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Actually thats not true. I looked into it a bit and last year, in several games started by LHP, Cora played Refsnyder in LF and O’Neill in RF. But against RHP, he played O’Neill in LF and Abreu in RF. While i initially thought it unlikely Cora would move Duran and Rafaela to accommodate Ref’s weak OF play, I’m starting to think it’s quite possible he does just that…
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I’m still hoping they add an actual fourth OF, preferably one capable of LHP and not completely embarrassing himself in RF. Most of these experienced MLB back up types seem to be in a holding pattern, probably until players can be added to the 60 day IL. It’s one thing to DFA a player to accommodate Flaherty, Alonso, Bregman, etc. But teams might be less keen on doing so for Grichuk or Manny Margot or Tommy Pham…
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I’ve always suspected he wanted to find ways to keep Arroyo involved…
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Given that Cora once saw fit to put Arroyo and his 0 IP of outfield experience in RF, I struggle to believe he will be overly concerned with Refsnyder. And it’s very possible Cora has investigated some metrics that show how the occasional weak fielder in RF has a negligible overall impact on the outcome of the game…
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His HR totals were heavily skewed by giving up 12 HRs in a 15 inning stretch against the Dodgers, Yankees, and Rangers. In the other 168 IP, he surrendered 22 HRs, which actually is not an outrageous total. Not sure if that bad stretch was fatigue, injury, tougher lineups, or some combination of the above…
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Yeah thats the problem. The guy who used to say it was probably immune from any HR issues, but that didn’t make it less NSFW. I gave him that Bill Gates thing instead and I heard he did use it. It helped emphasize the inaccuracies of relying on averages…
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He might be, but last April/May when I wanted the Sox to extend him, he looked like a Cy Young candidate they were foolish to leave unextended…
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I think most of Refsnyder’s time in LF was because Duran was covering CF while Rafaela played SS…
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I was hoping for Crawford and Houck extensions last year. But worth noting, one year ago we hadn’t extended anyone. Crochet will be top priority, but the Sox do have to meet his numbers. After him, I suspect Anthony and/or Campbell…
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Anyone else? Refsnyder isn’t a good outfielder, but he certainly isn’t the worst one in MLB. And he’s probably better out there than Romy would be. Romy is at best an emergency outfielder, best only deployed when the only other remaining options are pitchers, catchers, or just leaving it empty…
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Great. Two men in their 70’s ought to help this team. The modern version is Kristian and Roman. No lions…
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So far, Bello and Rafaela…
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Ive said it before - sign your own players before free agency and before arbitration when possible. If you believe every $8,000,000 is worth one win, will Juan Soto be worth 95 WAR in the next 15 years? It only averages out to a very beatable 6.3 WAR per year. Of course he will spend one third of that contract between 35 and 40 years old. And only 22 players in MLB history have been worth 95 WAR, yet at that rate, Soto should have that much LEFT. It would also give Soto 131 WAR for his career, enough for 6th all time. Ahead of Ted Williams and Tris Speaker and just behind Hank Aaron. And I know I’m talking about just one player, but Soto also has to be one of the surest things in free agency since ARod…
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I’m not worried about any of the hitters’ injuries from last year. I worry much more about Crochet, Whitlock, Hendriks, Giolito, etc. as the comeback road for pitchers always seems much more difficult…
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That’s absolutely not a nonsensical argument; it’s an inherent problem with the statistic in general. Anyone who has ever done any data analysis has been told repeatedly to not rely on average as a statistic. I used to work with a quality manager who would say (and he probably shouldn’t have) “the average person has one ball and one tit, but you don’t see many of them walking around.” There are numerous other options, but they’re not as easy…
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Didn’t he come back from that last year?
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Hamilton is a lock for the 26 man roster if healthy. He’s a lousy SS but he’s a good 2b and a great pinch runner, especially useful in the ghost runner era. Gonzalez isn’t a lock for anything… -
Didn’t Devin Williams give up a postseason losing walkoff home run LAST YEAR? And the answer, of course, is no. When Williams gave up a ninth inning, two out, 3 run home run to Pete Alonso in the last game of the NLWC series, allowing the Mets to come back from a 2-0 deficit to a 4-2 winning margin and take the series, it was during a home game. In front of his own fans…
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The diagnosis was “shoulder inflammation.” Kind of vague, but if you or I had such a diagnosis, the doctor would tell us “take some Advil and quit whining.” (Maybe your doctor is less of an a-hole than mine.). There are a range of inflammations and treatments. The most “severe” treatment is probably an injection of corticosteroids. For many players, those injections are part of their balanced breakfast…
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Steamer couldn’t predict yesterday’s weather. When it comes to projections I rely on the time-honored adage “if it’s not WAPM, it’s CRAPM”…
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A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
So when last year’s 80 at bats aren’t a convincing sample size, we go to the 75 at bats from the previous year? Here’s what we need to know about Grissom. The Sox thought enough about him to ask for him in the Sale trade. The Braves thought enough of Grissom to make the Sox pay salary if Grissom was involved, and the Sox paid it. And considering the Sox had at least one offer to take Sale’s entire contract, this is significant. Add to that Grissom dominated in the minors and made MLB within the first two years of his MiLB career. He’s very likely getting first shot at 2b over Hamilton and certainly over Romy Gonzalez, who is likely very high on the DFA list (unlike Grissom). Certainly Kristian Campbell can derail Grissom, but i wouldn’t count on Romy/Hamilton, both of whom took a lot longer to achieve a small modicum of success and did so at an older age than Grissom… -
A Realistic View of the 2025 Red Sox: Part I
notin replied to moonslav59's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Are fans calling a 24 yo who missed spring training and had injuries a lemon because he struggled for 80 at bats? -
But the life of these deals makes nearly all of them detrimental long term. To the $8mill/WAR; does that calculation reflect only free agent money? Or are players on extensions included? There is a vast difference in those situations that easily get lumped together. Even that $8mill/WAR is an average - an often used an often misleading stat. It can be skewed heavily by a small number of successes. For example, it is completely true that the average net worth of me, you, and Bill Gates is over $50 billion each. Does it accurately reflect your savings account? Per free agency, too often the players are aging and ready for, if not already in decline. Filling gaps is a good use, but the heavy spending more often than not leads to an unavoidable and inescapable decline. Most if not all fans say they are ok with free agents dragging the team down if they have successful years upfront. But almost none keep that attitude once the lean years set in…
