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If the Sox trade Dalbec, I could see it for the following players that makes sense (and work per baseballtradevalues.com): To the Angels for OF Brandon Marsh (.811 OPS in AA last year). The Angels could move La Stella back to 2b and Marsh is blocked by Trout, Upton and Jo Adell in the Anaheim OF. To the Braves for RHP Bryse Wilson (3.42 ERA in AAA). This would mean the Braves prefer Austin Riley in the OF, which may or may not be likely. To the Brewers for OF Trent Gresham and RHP Freddy Peralta. Assuming the Brewers let Moustakas walk. Gresham is a bit of a post-season goat, but 2 prospects for 1 prospect seems like a stretch here. I would make this deal, but it's not my top choice. To the Twins for RHP Jhoan Duran. Sano can go replace Cron at 1b, who will be non-tendered. Duran probably doesn't start the season in Boston. But it's fun to think of Sox announces having to differentiate between Jhoan Duran and Jarren Duran (no relation). To the Cubs for Kyle Schwarber: Bryant can play LF. Schwarber is basically Dalbec without the defense, so no idea where he fits in Boston unless JD opts out and is not re-signed. Hard pass. To the Guardians for RHP Aaron Civale. The Guardians are reportedly looking for offense at 2b or 3b, with Jose Ramriez taking the other position. Civale is a Northeastern alum who gave the Guardians a 2.34 ERA (3.40 FIP) in 57 IP last year. This one is my top choice, and not remarkably unlikely. But please, no Ockimey or Travis in Boston. Every time you write that, it makes me cry...

We can do it with Microsoft AI, according to Common...

And got taken out by Bruce Kison and the Pirates in the World Series for the first time...

FTFY I don't thnk the Sox can afford to "give up" on seasons with the money they have tied up in Price, Sale, and Eovaldi. Price's days are numbered and he is rapidly approaching the declining years in his deal. I think that alone means that if they want to win again, they need to strike before he becomes a huge contractual deadweight...

I remember when Yanees' fans said that about Kevin Maas.

Exactly, and even then. it's not like this guy has missed multiple seasons and rarely shown up for work or seen diminished ability. He's not Dylan Bundy...

The names are obviously right, but I do not agree with the roles. No way is Montgomery in the rotation while Happ is in the bullpen. I know you were impressed with Montgomery's 2.6 fWAR in his last year, but he gained that value as an innings-eater. But once an innings-eater has TJ surgery, you cannot count on that same value going forward. It's not like he was that great of a pitcher. I think at some point Deivi Garcia will work his way into the bullpen, probably in a role created by moving Cessa, Heller, or (my choice) Loasigia...

Strasburg has had an excellent career all around. But as he came out of college with all kinds of hype and isn't in among the handful of best pitchers in MLB, he gets viewed as a disappointment and, possibly by some, a bust. I wish the Sox had disappointing prospects like Strasburg...

While stupidity happens, it's even stupider to count on it. baseballtradevalues.com gives Bradley a surplus trade value of $1.2 milllion. That same site gives Mancini a surplus trade value of $19.7million. With Bradley having one year left at $10-12mill and Mancini reaching arbitration for the first time this offseason, this deal could not make less sense for the bottom-feeding Orioles. Unless the Red Sox did something equally stupid, like included Dalbec...

... which is in complete agreement with your previous statement...

No. If you collect or analyze an incomplete sample, that is a form of Selection Bias done by the collector/analyst. Not the data...

I think we were all hoping that, but there may have been a reason it never happened. I would think that JD had some back issues might have been a factor. JD was brought in to hit. They left him in a role that emphasized that. And it's not like the Sox had some other bat only/no glove player waiting in the wings to fill a vacated DH role. And, the Sox did have Moreland and Pearce. As for this coming year, I am hoping the Sox just slide Devers over to 1b and put Dalbec in at third. Although they will probably leave Devers at third and try Dalbec at first...

What else was DD supposed to give him? Owings was in the middle of a season that had him among the worst players in MLB, nd coming off a 2018 that didn't inspire much confidence, but he had something in his history that at least made him look like a serviceable MLB player. He was actually useful in 2016 and 2017, where he combined for a .736 OPS and played all over the diamond. Cora batting him leadoff was just flat out stupid.

It's actually a good idea to bring in some of these fringle MLB players over relying on the farm because, despite their very low likelihood of making an impact, they are still MLB talent, even at the bottom of the barrel, which is something that doesn't necessarily apply to players on the farm. Gorkys Hernandez in particular made a lot of sense despite his complete lack of exciting ability, because the Sox farm system is all but bereft of outfield talent. We as fans might think "Why not just bring up Jarren Duran? He can't be any worse than Gorkys." The problem with that logic is, he absolutely can be worse that Gorkys, and potentially by a lot. If, say, Bradley got hurt for a prolonged period, was that the time to find out that Jarren Duran cannot even make contact with an MLB fastball? Especially if it happened in May?

I doubt JD opts out, but even if he does, I still think the Sox bring him back at a lower AAV but for more years...

If they tender him a contract, I do think you will be very pleased. I don't see him getting traded for one year at his estimated salary...

Oh ok. I could have looked that up. But when I see Palmer and McNally, I always think of him as being there. Along with Pat Dobson, who was also missing from that list...

Agreed. Which is why raw data is not biased. The biases I an talking about are cognitive biases inherent to human thought processes...

No. There is a difference between a cognitive bias related to human processing of information and data simply collected in different sets. But you are correct in tht these are factors that get ignored in comparing stats from different players. However, even with all this, the sets will never be equal because hitters cannot face pitchers from their own team (and vice versa) which gives advantages to the teammates of the best players....

They are raw data, but arguably subject to a sample selection bias, inasmuch as they ignore all data from previous games. But they are done for the purpose of showing a hot streak or short term improvement. The question is, how representative are they?

Nothing. Betts is a serious trade candidate. Bradley is a non-tender or trade candidate. And the Sox have one outfield prospect who might be able to play next year if they rush him. They might need to hold on to at least one outfielder....

No Mike Cuellar?

I think I would listen to either of them about Puig over anyone on this board. They KNOW the guy...

Not always true. Historically the Yankees and Cubs have dominated betting action from the get go, and the oddsmakers took it into account. In the case of the Cubs, there were literally thousands betting “this is the year” every season with small bets on high odds. So there were plenty of years where the Cubs were the worst team in the league, but the opening line didn’t reflect it...

Correct. Momentum describes history. But then again, so does “win”..,