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notin

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Everything posted by notin

  1. The only real disadvantage for the Sox in resetting after 2020 and then re-signing Betts is the free agent market beyond Mookie right now actually looks fairly weak. This has pluses and minuses. The big minus is that any team looking to drop some serious coin won;t find anything in the way of alternatives. The flip side to that is, those same teams obviously won't have a $20mill player coming off the books, so we won't know who has available budget, and a lot of them have their own internal star players to worry about, such as the Dodgers. (Sign Mookie or extend Bellinger?) That is, unless Giancarlo Stanton opts out of his Yankee contract, which would be a move his agent will be screaming at him not to do. Much like Price, I don't think Stanton is going to find a comparable offer from the non-Yankee teams out there. I doubt anyone else will top the 7 year / $218mill he will still have left on that deal (which could also turn onto an 8 year / $233mill deal if his option gets exercised). The remianing years for Stanton are the higher paid ones on thta contract. Now I do expect JD Martinez to be more likely to opt out, a his last 2 years are the lower paid ones on his deal. But he might find staying to be the better move, since his last bout with free agency didn't play out the way it was supposed to in the public story (which might have been nothing but a marketing ploy by Boras). So that leaves only George Springer as a consolation prize, and likely a considerably cheaper one than Betts as Springer is 3 years older and not nearly as good. Or the Sox and the other suitors will have to wait another year for Kris Bryant...
  2. I see no reason to walk assume Betts isn’t coming back. The Sox will have the need and the budget space, and while there are certainly other large market teams, many of them either lack the budget room or have their own elite players to worry about. Certainly there’s still a really good chance Mookie leaves, but this is a situation where the Sox should do everything possible. This could mean Bradley. While Dombrowski’s commitment to defense isn’t so historically accurate, he also isn’t going to simply leave CF vacant. Possibly a glove-first type, as most of them are cheaper. But maybe the Sox slide a current corner over, which can be great (Betts) for defense fans, or not so great (that non-Betts guy). The good news for fans of defense is, if the Sox go this budget-conscious way, the cheapest way to fill the outfield is a no-hit/good field CF...
  3. Add Dalbec to another roster and get a pitcher (and not a belly-itcher) back...
  4. Mata is 20 and not exactly dominating AA. I hope he doesn’t make the team in 2020, for multiple reasons. Ditto Duran. I could see Chatham in the 2b mix with Marco. And maybe Houck on the 40 man The Sox might have to resort to a minor league contract or two to keep payroll down, but that’s no reason to ruin any promise on the farm in the process...
  5. Laureano can do all that and throw himself out at the plate. And he does it by throwing it the wrong way so it circles the globe and comes back to him covered with stickers of all the countries it passed through...
  6. I don’t think you get to speak for John Henry here. But if you do, at least remember he is a strong metrics guy and was one of the first owners in MLB to add metrics people to the front office. Unless he only hired Bill James to play Santa at the office Christmas party, which would also have been a good idea. It’s not whether JBJ is the best or not. It’s whether he’s worth $10-12 mil. It’s easy to say yes when he’s your favorite player and you’re not actually paying the bills, and if no serious decisions have to be made about the finances of this team. Having Bradley back would be great, but he won’t be cheap. He didn’t hire Scott Boras so he could take a paycut. Now bear in mind, a reset is just a board theory. It makes sense in a lot of ways, it’s not like we’re working with insider info here. But right now, this team is Betts-Bogaerts-Devers as the core. And a reset might be the only way to keep that core...
  7. Yes, especially Buxton, Cain, Hamilton and, for some reason, Engel. I live in Chicago, so I see plenty of AL and NL Central teams. (FYI some of them also love Harrison Bader.) Last year I saw Kiermeier and Buxton at Comiskey/US Cellular/Guaranteed Rate Field in person. As for Laureano, go to YouTube and make the call for yourself. Like this one And bear in mind that throw had no cutoff man and I don’t think it even bounced. And there are other clips. The dude is amazing. But the big question is - why are you doubting this? Do you think Bradley is the only CF anyone raves about?
  8. This year he’d cost a pro-rated league minimum. Next year is another matter....
  9. Maybe Laureano comes from another planet. It actually makes sense. Humans can’t throw like that...
  10. Maybe, since he is not a pitcher, Dombrowski will make a move for the recently-released Scooter Gennett. Scooter is having a horrible season after missing the first 3 months, but in 2017-18, he did have an .859OPS with 50 HRs. He is a free agent after 2019, but whoever signs him for the remainder of the season would get an inside track to re-signing him. He might even want a one year value rebuilder...
  11. They also rave about Kevin Pillar, Kevin Kiermeier, Byron Buxton, Billy Hamilton, Lorenzo Cain, and most of all, Ramon Laureano. In fact, I don't think any CF gets or deserves more raves than Laureano, who is a game changer out there. I've even heard broadcasters rave about Adam Engel on defense, though I'm not sure why. He looks kind of meh to me. I mean, he's OK out there. But not rave-worthy...
  12. Would you trade Price straight up for Jason Heyward? Heyward has a lower AAV ($23mill) than Price ($31mill) and could take over CF or allow for Betts to move to CF, allowing the Sox to non-tender Bradley. Price would be reunited with Madden in Chicago. That's a savings of $18-20mill towards the luxury tax, minus what it takes to replace Price. baseballtradevalues.com gives both players roughly the same surplus trade value. Heyward has a $(-50.2) million with Price having a $(-44.8)million...
  13. Are they playing the Yankees?
  14. He's still on my team. That's not good news for him. It is for me...
  15. I think all 4 get non-tendered. Hembree might be offered arbitration. Might. And like last year, Leon might be re-signed anyway...
  16. My steps for reset? 1. Non-tender JBJ. Possibly bring him back if he takes a lower salary. Otherwise move on. 2. Deal Barnes for pitching or an outfielder. 3. Deal Dalbec for whatever Barnes doesn't get. Some trades that work out and actually make sense on baseballtradevalues.com include deals like Barnes to the Cubs for Ian Happ (where he is blocked an an OF, but CHC could move him back to 2B), or to Colorado for Raimel Tapia (who is blocked on all fronts). Dalbec to Miami for Jose Urena also works out and actually makes sense for both teams. I'm sure other deals for Barnes could be found that are even better. Everyone needs cheaper bullpen help...
  17. I'd rather keep Betts for that reason. Having pitchers like Johnson is how you finish last, not how you prevent it...
  18. The Notin Plan is very simple 1. Reset 2. Extend Mookie after 2020 one way or another. No idea what the Dombrowski/Romero/Whoever Plan is...
  19. Starting Brian Johnson has turned into handing the other team an early 3-0 lead...
  20. You can't expect them to put up gaudy numbers every day. Even the 1927 Yankees lost 2-1 games. The problem with this Sox staff is they can't win those 2-1 games every now and then...
  21. Brasier had a horrific tendency to give up key home runs to guys at the bottom of the order...
  22. The Mariners haven't seen the post-season in 18 years. Who does fit into their window of contention? Edgar Martinez' grandsons?
  23. You could have wished they bring back Tom House. Or sign Brian Shouse...
  24. I have him on my fantasy team. That's generally not good news for a player. I made a post about releasing a struggling Benintendi at one point, and that day he went on a crazy hot streak. I'm not releasing Torres. I don't want him to go to the IL. But this is my curse. Worse yet - Torres is in my keeper league. The one I have Severino and Hicks in...
  25. He spent about $87mill on the 5 pitchers in the rotation and about $9mill on the bullpen, and that bullpen money includes some deadweight like Thornburg and Wright. While he didn't verbalize "This team is built on the rotation!" he did spend money on the rotation and extended Sale and did absolutely nothing about the bullpen. I hate how he ignored the bullpen, but the bullpen has not really been the same level of problem the rotation is. And "Blown Saves" are sort of a misleading stat. First off, they're not all loses. And while they do represent a lead that went unheld, that doesn't even mean a relief pitcher had a bad outing. Workman had at least one blown save this year when he didn't even give up a hit (against Texas). I bet other Sox relievers did as well. Sometimes blown saves are the fault of the SP or another RP because an inherited runner scored. Heck an error by an infielder and an unearned run can cause a blown save (which is what happened to Workman in Texas). Think about it. If a reliever comes in with the bases loaded and none out and is trying to protect a one run lead, he can induce a 4-6-3 double play, and be charged with..... a blown save. Sure that instance doesn't happen often, but that's a really weird outcome. The relief pitcher came up with the best possible outcome for that hitter, and statistically he gets nailed with a Blown Save. It's another stat with uses that can be misleading. A lot of blown saves are not from pitching poorly, just from really tough situations. Except the blown saves from Ryan Brasier. Those were all from pitching poorly...
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