moonslav59

Wow. Has any season ever seen the three top teams in a league from one division and all +4 games ahead of everyone else?

Heard today HOU is 29th in runs scored in the last 100 days (or games?)

I'm not even sure we can count on Houck, Crochet and Oviedo for opening day 2027. For what it's worth, here is MLB.com's injury report: 14 Players! Rafaela: Season is over after doctors found degenerative changes in his right flexor mass. Will receive a PRP injection and rehab the injury. White: Banged into a grate in center field on Sept. 8 and suffered ligament damage. Currently on crutches and in a walking boot. Set to get second opinion during week of Sept. 13. Seigler: Removed from Sept. 12 game after feeling pain in his right wrist during fourth-inning at-bat. Initial fluoroscan negative, issue described as inflammation due to bony abscess in wrist. Will be reassessed in a week. Guerrrero: Threw a live batting practice session on Sept. 12. Experienced lower back muscle cramping on Sept. 15, delaying activation. Feeling better as of Sept. 16, but activation date is unclear. Crochet: Threw a 30-pitch bullpen session at Fenway Park on Sept. 15 that went well. Will continue throwing program this week before being re-evaluated weekend of Sept. 25-27. Houck: Pitched a scoreless inning in his third rehab appearance on Sept. 15 with Triple-A Worcester. Expected to pitch again Sept. 18 trying to reach 45-, 50-pitch range. Oviedo: Scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Sept. 14 and then begin a rehab assignment with Triple-A Worcester, where he will pitch in a game on Sept. 17. Crawford: Has resumed throwing bullpen sessions and could throw to hitters at some point soon. (Last updated: Sept. 9) Mead: Continued defensive work after playing catch for first time on Sept. 7. Scheduled to begin hitting off a tee with an underload (light) bat on Sept. 16 and will progress from there Yoshida: Is walking on a treadmill and not close to a return. (Last updated: Sept. 9) Kelly: Has progressed to throwing live batting practice in Fort Myers, Fla. (Last updated: Sept. 9) Slaten: Season is over after doctors found degenerative changes in his right flexor mass. Will receive a PRP injection and rehab the injury. Rivera: Had been on 7-day IL in Minors since Aug. 13. Was recalled on Sept. 1 and placed on 60-day IL to open a 40-man roster spot. (Last updated: Sept. 1) Casas: Underwent arthroscopic surgery on his left wrist and is likely out for the season.

Scary stuff. Selecting 22 games was for making a point, but the point has merit. We can't win without some improved hitting. Period. We have some capable players. I'm sure Fred, will agree, once Ceddanne returns our offense should be fine.

These guys starting rehabs in September are just prepping for 2027. Houck has had a few outings, so maybe he gets a look-see, but time is running out.

I'm still done with all Castro and Bleis hopes. Cespedes regained a sliver of hope, this year.

The September 1 Cutoff: Any player on a team's 40-man roster or 60-day IL at noon ET on September 1 qualifies for the postseason

1. It's better than the one game play-in. 2. You can't make the bye teams wait 6-7 days.

is 1% a good chance?

I'd bet Rafaela catched that GR 2B by Burger, but nevertheless, it was hit hard.

Aprox HRs per 650 PAs 36 Jones 30 Contreras & Gasper 24 Abreu 22 Duran 18 Rafaela 15 Durbin 14 Sogard

Good stuff here, but I'm actually burnt out talking about Duran. I'll save what I have left for the off season hot stove talk.

One more thing, if the ball is juiced, as it certainly must be, how about these AA pitching numbers? Should we view them as being better than they look? OPS Against / AA Pitcher/ ERA .597 Mullins 3.98 .678 Wehunt 3.52 .681 Paez 4.41 .690 Holobetz 4.33 .639 Halligan 4.29 Can we shave off 0.50 to 1.00 from their ERA's?

No doubt, the power numbers are all in doubt. I'm not really all tat concerned about Arias having power. He's a better defender than Story and anybody under control into 2027 and ML ready. He should have a higher BA and OBP than Story and just about any other ML ready SS on the Sox. He may or may not hit more XBHs than Story or a Monasterio/Story mix, but the rest outweighs this.

I can understand Sandoval, but Bennett is just plain silly.

Those 5 game numbers are brought down by his last start: 6 ERs in 5.1 IP with 9 hits and a BB. Only 2 Ks was scary. That's not to say his previous starts have been great. He had let up 3 or more runs in 7 of his last 8 starts before the meltdown game. Granted, all were 3 or 4 runs, but per 4.0 to 7.0 IP, that is not good. 4.50 ERA (3.58 FIP) in the 8 games before his last start. However.... 3.91 ERA (3.36 FIP) in the previous 4 games before that game. 2.84/3.20 last 3 2.25/2.93 last 2 could have been a sin he was getting his act back together before having one really bad game. He's averaged just 73 pitches his last 2 starts, and he had an extra day off before his last start and 2 extra days before tonight's game. Let's hope the rest and lower pitch counts can help him get strong for the home stretch and playoffs.

I think 17-21 year 1 and 2 might be about right, but I could see him getting to 25 by prime. I doubt he ever hits 30 in MLB, but maybe as he ages he might.

I almost mentioned Houck. There is going to be a 12 man staff for the playoffs, so there is plenty of room for Bennett, Bello, Sandoval and Houck. (I guess we could go 11 for the first series.) 3 starters listed 5 RP'ers: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Guerrero (assuming he's back) and Weissert Adding the 4 I mentioned kicks Moran, Gamboa, Olds & Burgos off the current active roster. I doubt we see Slaten or Crochet, but either could easily take Weissert's place, and nobody would cry.

Agreed, and with the days off schedule, the #2 and #3 starters will get 2 extra days rest before their next start. I'd say Gray needs the least rest of the 3.

Game 3, there might not be a "rest of the playoffs." There is a concern about who starts game 1 of the next series, as there is just 1 day off- assuming the series is won in 3 games. SEP 29, 30, OCT 1 (Gray>Tolle>Suarez) Day Off (10/2) OCT 3 Bello/Sandoval? But check this out... Day Off (Oct 4) OCT 5 Gray (+1 day rest) Day Off (10/6) OCT 7 Tolle (+2 days rest) OCT 8 Suarez (+2) Day Off (10/9) OCT 10 (if needed) Gray on normal rest There is no need for a 4th starter, except for maybe game 1 of round 2.

5 HRs and 16 XBHs in under 150 ABs still shows decent power, but I agree. I think POR nearly doubled their HRs from the previous season.

I think May 1st is about the line. If I were a betting man, I'd take the under on May 15th, Practice games will likely be underway before May 1st.

Adding Bennett to the pen could be all the pen needs to outshine any other team's pen. Chapman Whitlock & Miller Bennett & Bello (Guerrero, Moran & maybe 1 from Crochet/Houck/Slaten) You don't usually need 11-13 pitchers in the playoffs. If we do, they won't be the reason we lose. I like our top 7-8 pitchers as much as anyone else, or at least it's very close. I like our defense. (11th in last 81 games according to fangraphs. TBR is slightly better. CLE is 5th. No other AL contender is top 14.) Our offense has been top 10 over half season (81 games.) #3 in Runs scored (#1 in AL) #8 in OPS (#2 in AL behind TBR) Last 81 games: 53-28 BOS (#1 Pitching fWAR/#2 ERA-) 50-30 TBR (#9 Pitching fWAR/#4 ERA-) 50-31 MIL 46-32 CHC 45-32 LAD 44-36 NYY (#3 Pitching fWAR/#1 ERA-) Yanks are 25th in Runs scored and 28th in OPS over last 81 games, and posters are crying about the Sox offense. Sure, they got Judge back, but our offense should improve with Anthony, AR and Story added over the last few weeks. We have a well balanced team with a playoff roster that looks very tough.

Nope. There will be no shutdown, and if there is, no longer than April missed.

I'm not one to think looking ahead at 2027 is doin a disservice to the 2026 team or jinxing us in any way. I like our chances this year, based on our top 6-8 pitchers when the playoffs often see much less IP from the #9-13 pitchers. That being said, I'm stoked about our 2027 chances, but knowing full well, injuries are a certainty, and who gets injured can easily shift my positions of extreme optimism to something less or much less. There are three major reasons for my high level of optimism: 1. The players we lose or may lose to free agency are significant, but not as bad as other teams and recent Sox off seasons. The biggie is Gray, but he may return. IKF is a decent role player but easily replaceable, even from within the system. Sandoval appears to be addition by subtraction, but our minor league SP'er depth took a big hit over the last year. Our everyday player core of 9-12 players all return. One could conclude that Crochet might replace Gray seamlessly- leaving no urgent need to replace anyone we lose. One could also think Crochet, Houck, Crawford + Oviedo (Bello?) can improve on Gray + Sandoval. _________________________ 2. The quality of our starting 9, rotation and top 4-5 RP'ers already on the roster: C Rutschman 1B Contreras 2B Mead 3B Durbin SS Arias (Story) LF Anthony CF Rafaela RF Abreu DH Yoshida SP: Crochet, Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten (Houck/Crawford) That's a very solid 18 players. _________________________ 3. The bench and AAA/AA depth: Our bench carried us for much of 2026, especially the middle IF, rotation and pen depth. Despite losing IKF, Gray and Sandoval, I think the bench will be as strong or stronger next year, but that depends on how many are needed to start due to injuries to the solid 18 posted above. Here is how I see our 2027 depth chart, assuming the 18 listed above are the major slots filled: C: Wong, Gasper (Jo Garcia, Baez, H White, GRod, Rosario) This is not a strength area, but maybe a minor leaguer steps it up in '27) 1B: Mead, Casas, Romy, Gasper, Sogard (Brannon/Gonzales) looks about as deep as any MLB team has. 2B: Story, Sogard, Romy, Seigler, Monasterio, Cheng (Rodgers, McDonough, Romero, Cespedes M White) is again among the top depth in MLB at 2B. 3B: Story, Monasterio, Cheng, Sogard, Seigler (Romero, Winnay) is pretty good, but probably not if needed for 80+ games) SS: Story, Monasterio, Cheng, Sogard is pretty good. OF: Duran, Yoshida, Jones, White & maybe Mead. (Campbell, Eaton, Gonzales, Ward) Pretty good. DH: Duran, Romy, Gasper, Jones, Sogard.... (Brannon, Jo Garcia, Cespedes) Pretty good SP: Houck, Crawford, Oviedo is not deep but could be very good. (Paez, Wehunt, Holobetz, Ziehl, Burgos is not great nor 11-12 deep) RP: Guerrero, Weissert, Moran, Kelly (Mullins, Bastardo, Gamboa, Samaniego, Rivera, Olds, Futrell, Monegor) looks decent but will probably be bolstered by a signing or trade. Health will be a major factor, of course, and we will go into the season with significant questions about some major pieces: Crochet, Houck, Crawford and to some extent Anthony, AR, Slaten and lesser pieces like Oviedo & Casas and high salaried guys like Story & Yoshida and even Duran. I think our 2027 roster has an overall great foundation and depth.