For all we know Mayer may out fWAR lindor from 2027 to 2031. I doubt it, but giving back prospects or players is or can be very costly.
We've been throwing money numbers out there, but we have no idea what the NYM will include. They may seek the most money relief with little player returns over the opposite.
Assuming they pay $50M ($10M per year,) is AAV would be $22M.
Alonso's is $31M x 4 (one less year and he's a year youinger)
Bregman is $31M x 4 (someone I did not want at even what we offered for him.)
Schwarber is $30M x 4 (I hesitate to count him, but many of us wanted him at that money.)
All these deals end a year earlier, which limits the "down years" by one and changes the proportions of good vs dent vs bad year significantly. Enough to offset $30-31M vs $22M? Probably not, but then add the players we give up and it's not such a clear choice anymore.
TBH, I'd rather have Lindor than Bragman & Mayer. That's mainly because I thought Breggie would have been a mistake. It's closer on Alonso & Mayer v Lindor, but because we have 4 DHs already and not that I think Lindor will outhit them.. Same with Schwarber.
We need a SS not a DH, so that's big plus for Lindor over any of these three mentioned.