moonslav59

There is so much proof out there that winning a ring does NOT follow some rigid set of guidelines. One could argue the set of guidelines pretty loose. We can point to the Royals and some other anomalies, but nobody ever argues we should emulate those "surprise" team philosophies and strategies. GMs are always trying to improve their roster and system. Most are keenly aware of the weak areas and strengths. Their goal may be to eliminate or lessen their weaknesses, but sometime available players are just too costly within the framework they have to work with, so they look to improve other slots to make up for the weak area they could not fix. I see that type of situation with Brez's choice to not overbid for Bregman and to choose the Durbin trade and Suarez signing instead. He fixed the 3B defense and added a dose of hope that Durbin could hit well enough to not be a minus. The loss of overall value between Bregman and Durbin might also lessen or even flip over years 3-4-5, if Bregman declined and or Durbin improved by enough. The kicker was using the Bregman money to sign Suarez- a fine pitcher with proven playoff, positive achievements. At the time, the loss of Harrison & Drohan was at most viewed as losing some possible but sketchy rotation depth, but again, adding Suarez, pushed almost everyone else down a peg and easily negated that perceived loss. Losing DHam was viewed as an addition by subtraction by some on this site, and clearly Seigler & Monasterio made up for his loss. We went into this season with a super rotation and 5 pitcher depth that perhaps no other team could match. Our pen looked nice for 3-4 guys, but the rest looked highly questionable. There was some hope that a starter could be used in the pen, and not many expected that guy to be Bello, but we did get some help, despite the large number of SP'ers missing all or nearly all of the season due to injuries. Brez had a pretty good record building pretty good bottom of the pens with no-name pitchers. I think most of us would say we outperformed expectation with this pen. (There was also doubts that 80 year old Chapman could come close to his 2025 season.) Much of the focus was on the offense, but did anyone really think on opening day, we'd be bottom 15 in MLB? By mid-June many did, and some key injuries hurt. Many felt Contreras was not the Alonso or Schwarber addition, but he could make up for losing Bregman (who only played about 2/3 of 2025.) Many felt Anthony was poised to break out. Others pointed to how many decent batters we had that were nearing prime and could/should improve on 2025. Others pointed to the loss of bad offense along with the loss of Bregman, Refsnyder and Nate Lowe as reason to not fret about big losses. By mid-June the offense sucks crowd was boisterous and adamant, then the weren't (except for Fred.) To be fair, the full season numbers place us 20th in runs scored (21 behind #14.) We are days away from the end of the season, so these rankings should not change much, but as of now, we are... 3rd in Pitching fWAR 10th in everyday fWAR as a team (very close to #8 or 9.) 20th in Runs scored but 11th in OPS (.001 from 10th and .002 from 9th) Our wRC+ is 100. I think it's safe to say our offense has been near average over the whole season but with a recency effect that places us top 10 or better depending on the sample size you choose to use. (We are 5th in runs scored in the last 81 games (a half season.) 2nd in team ERA- (to NYY) We are first in FIP at 3.67. One could argue we are tied for the best pitching staff in the AL and maybe even MLB- by the numbers. We are 3rd in MLB in ERs allowed and far enough behind the Yanks to say we finished 2nd in pitching to the NYY and maybe tied with MIL for 2nd best in MLB. 3rd in DRS. Defense is always the hardest to quantify. We rank 7th in OAA and fangraph's defense index, so I think it's safe to say we are about top 5. With the ranking on offense up for debate, I'd still say we are a top 10 offense (top 5 in last 81 games) top 5 pitching staff and top 5 on defense. Sounds like a winning formula.

Can't help but think of Tony C. I wish Bregman a full recovery.

A look at some impressive K:BB numbers from the farm 2026: 82:8 Paez (71 IP) 130:19 Futrell (115 IP) 143:37 Brown (107 IP) 129:25 Ziehl (122 IP) He also had a 1.71 G/F ratio (Best of this group) 96: 18 Carlson (82 IP) 132:36 Holobetz (119 IP)

Dalbec is a good comp, and even Bobby D lost the ability to get on base- or rather pitchers figured out how to get him to strike out without walking him too much. I fully recognize the likely path both these guys end up on, but occasionally, someone from this mold comes through. The odds may be long. I'm not projecting they even make the 26 one day. Hell, they may never make our 40, and their Rule 5 status might force a trade or loss from our system. I won't get upset, but there is still a sliver of hope in me that one or both of these guys can make it and be a plus on the 26. I doubt either makes the Sox 26 in 2027, but maybe they get a look-see on another team.

Regardless of division winners: Best two teams by record get byes. Team 3 picks playoff opponent for first round. Team 4 plays the other team. Team 3 series winner plays team 2. Team 4 series winner plays team 1. Divisions only matter to help a team make the playoffs, when they might be a top 6 team by record.

The Rays are 37-27 in 1 or 2 run games. They've been shut out 8 times. The Sox have been shut out 7 times. They are 33-37 in 1 or 2 run games.

Consider this: TBR +83 Run Differential and 95-60 DET +75 Run Differential and 74-83 (22 GB TBR)

Top prospects by ETA: 2026 (25) Rivera (57) Gamboa Paez (18) 2027 (1) Arias (9) Holobetz (13) Wehunt (16) Bastardo (21) Ziehl 2028 (2) Gonzales (5) Godbout (10) Cespedes (14) Gutierrez (15) Phillips (19) Winnay (27) Ma White 2029 (3) Primera (4) Valera (7) Hull (7) Schaffner (20) Brown (30) LaFavor 2030 (11) Mataczynski (12) Selar (17) Soto

Some interesting stats from this year's Sox farm: SBs: 61 Braiden Ward (9CS) in 109 games. He only had 66 singles and 39 BBs. (DHam broke the Sox record with 70 in 2022.) Opata was second with 54 in 103 games. Here's a doozie: Jhorman Bravo had 37 SBs in just 46 games! He had 87 singles + BBs. (I know players can steal 3B and even home, but still...) Edwin Darville had 34 SBs in 35 games (45 singles + BBs) BBs: Will Turner led the team with 84 (103 Ks) and KC was second with 73 (126 Ks,) but Jack Winnay has 72 BBs and 87 Ks. His .405 OBP led the farm among prospects with 350+ PAs. Primera had an eye-opening stat line for a guy with over 300 PAs: 48 BB but just 36 Ks! Others with more BB than Ks: Gasper 42/39, Ro. Hernandez 40/40 & C Alvarado 35/32. XBHs: 54 Arias, 52 Brannon, 51 Azocar, 48 Cespedes & 45 YRod 300+ PAs SLG: Primera .581, Brannon .560 & Arias .557 OBP: Primera .499, Winnay .405, Arias .400 RBI+Runs-HRs 144 Arias 132 Justin G 128 Capra 126 Opata 125 Ma White 124 Cespedes 122 Castro 121 Azocar Notables: 118 Jackson 117 Salazar & McDonough 103 Primera (just 78 games) 100 Heyman 98 Brannon

There was obviously zero effort to try and add any sort of uniqueness to the place. Nothing to add any character or flair. I guess maybe that is all there is unique about it: it's plainness.

I saw a season opener there many years ago. It was the "closer by committee" season. I think it was Chad Fox who blew the opener. I didn't think the stadium was as bad as I expected. I guess the A/C felt nice on a warm humid April day.

Agreed, but not Romy v RHPs. OPS v R .903 Gasper .878 Contreras .875 White .784 Seigler .774 AR .763 Anthony .747 Abreu .746 Rafaela .724 Durbin .717 Sogard .714 IKF .673 Eaton .667 Jones .625 Story .623 Wong .622 Duran _____________ .617 Monasterio .517 Romy There are 15 batters better than Duran v R. Okay, Gasper is 2 for his last 14, but Duran is 2 for his last 16.

The Yanks would choose the CWS. Texas would be left with the Sox for round 1.

I don't think any gain on defense makes up for Duran's black hole bat. Duran should not play vs a LH'd SP'er (Fried & Rodon.) Jones should. Since Anthony can DH and Gasper/Jones can platoon as DH- the comp is really Duran vs Gasper vs RHP. Assuming Rafaela is playing all 3 games in NY, I'd go... vs R LF Anthony DH Gasper vs L LF Anthony DH Jones

Sale didn't have a handful of recent outings before pitching well with the Braves. Do you really not get the point I made? I'm fine with disagreeing, but Sale and Houck have had very different preparation timeframes to work with, which was my point. I really like Houck. At one time, I proclaimed he had the "nastiest stuff on the team." I hope he can come close to what he once had. I hopes the same for Sandoval. For Crawford, I hoped the same for Hendriks. For Crochet. I hoped the same for Buehler. For Oviedo. For Kluber. For Richards. For Paxton. For _____....

Maybe allow the #1 seed to choose who to play. The #2 gets 2nd pick...

What happens when the magic number is a negative number?

On the old BDC site, I once started a thread called "The Rays Won't Go Away" as a reply to ole softlaw's claim that they'd "fade away in the dog days of summer." It turned out to be one of the longer threads on the site, as the Rays just kept exceeding expectations year-after-year. Here they are again. While they are 11th in runs scored and 6th in runs allowed, they just recently passed the sox in run differential. They always seem to win with smoke and mirrors. (One can argue they win by playing good defense and always having a top manager at the helm.) Pythagorean never works for the Rays. They defy the math. They have 9 more wins than projected. Imagine Sox fans looking at their top 10 batters by PAs and seeing these OPS numbers for 7 of them!!!! .592, .622, .633, .688, .696, .700 and .707 They only have one batter over .807. That's like 5 black holes and 2 gray ones. With all the complaining about the Sox offense, here is a comp to what I just presented for the Rays: Only on batter over .785 is pretty close, but check out the lowest OPS among the top 10 batters by PAs in 2026: .624 Duran (stunningly still second in PAs) .646 Story (8th in PAs and on the rise) .656 Wong (10th in PAs with the .721 Anthony about to pass him) .683 Monasterio (6th but not playing much anymore) The rest are over .727.... .727 Durbin .729 Sogard .746 Yoshida .760 Rafaela The Sox have 5 guys over .727: the Rays have 3 over .707.

Not if fly balls can reach catwalks.

I had him listed, then went back to edit (move him to DH with Story at 2B,) but forgot to add him. I went back and adjusted. Thanks.

Two interesting Rule 5 players: Brannon & Garcia... Brooks Brannon (22) 1B/DH/C3: The guy had a very nice season at the plate and was pretty highly regarded for a 9th round pick in 2022. (soxprospects.com ranked him 30th shortly after he was drafted, but he not been top 30 since then. He was second on the farm in HRs (22) and second in OPS (.915) among all farm hands with 300+ PAs. His .280 BA & .355 OBP would be hard to duplicate in the bigs, since he swings and misses too much. (115 Ks in 350 ABs) He has not hit all that well, until this year. Soxprospects.com ranks him 38th and calls him a "high variance with issues on defense. Like Garcia, he's been injured a lot and has a high chase rate. His best chance would be as a catcher, but sadly, he seems like his only position can be DH or 1B. Johanfran Garcia (21) DH/C3/1B? The younger brother of the PASSWORD has always intrigued me, but has suffered from injuries almost every season. He tied for 8th on the farm with HRs (18) and his .833 OPS was 5th among prospects with 300+ PAs. The .284 BA & 339 OBP are nice, but he's not likely to duplicate that at higher levels. He K's about as much as Brannon (103 in 320 ABs) He had some decent hitting sprees at lower levels. Soxprospects is not very high on him (37th) but says his potential is "fluid." He shown the same "loud tools" at bat since returning from major knee surgery. He was ranked #14 in fall of '23 and hung around in the top 20 for 2024, but the knee injury dropped him down a lot. They both kinda seem like Mickey Gasper types- failed catchers trying to hold on with the strength of their bats, but maybe not meeting DH/1B hitting expectations. While Gasper is a switch hitter, he sucks vs LHPs. Garcia & Brannon both bat RH'd. It's highly unlikely we try some sort of DH platoon with 2 of these three, with both being back up 1Bmen and third catcher depth, so maybe one can beat out Gasper, if they can show they don't need to be platooned.

I don't disagree, but it's not a very exciting rollercoaster, as it barely goes up very high. He barely got over .800 in a short time at FCL in 2022, and again at GRE in '23 and '24, but .812 is as high as the coaster climbed. It fell sharply when he was promoted to POR in 2024 (.504,) but that's not the kind of thrill I want from a ride. .753 in 2025 (AA) was not all that great and then .722 in AAA this year was also meh. He is just 23, so there is time for a boost, but I just can't feel it with this guy. That being said, I said the same thing about Cespedes, and he kinda had a boost this season. (I also linked these two with Bleis as the "better do something this season of I'm done with you" group.) I'm not sure Cespedes at .731 is all that inspiring either, and he's a level lower than Castro, although he's almost 2 years younger. The 20 homers have to be taken with a grain of salt, too, since the balls are juiced.

Last winter, we had several players that ended the season on the IL, or who barely returned to some action near the end of the season. We knew Houck would miss all or almost all of 2026, but others were expected back. Sandoval was known to be out for a few months and a couple others were big question marks. Crawford even managed to get a new injury before the other one was heeled. Here is a look at this year's IL crew, in terms of 2027 expectations. Casas: all bets should be off with a total write off likely the best odds bet. Slaten always seems hurt or about to get hurt. He's got some scary stuff going on in his right elbow with "flexor mass degeneration." Maybe count him out for some or much of 2027. Kelly was throwing, and Rivera hasn't pitched since mid August. No biggies on these two- make it or not. Oviedo is apparently healthy. He's had some upside potential for a while, and Brez hoped he'd come through this year, but the flexor strain had other ideas. He should be ready for ST'ing. Crawford was all set to start Woo's finale, but the game was cancelled. I suppose we should think he's healthy, and he has the whole summer to prepare for ST'ing. Guessing his expectations is just that- a guess. Here is a guy who led the staff in IP a couple years ago and showed some serious promise. Now, he's like a coin toss, but with perhaps that same serious upside. Crochet might be the most important returnee or replapsee. He's been throwing and may actually be ML ready, soon, so his return depends on no setbacks or mess-ups. Houck might be one of the most likely to succeed, but maybe as a RP'er would improve those odds. Mead is second to Crochet in potential to make a major impact, IMO. Like Crawford, he was supposed to start with Woo, today, so he should be ready for ST'ing. Rafaela, Contreras, Seigler, White and Yoshida should be healthy by Spring. We kinda know what they bring to the table, assuming no injury affects. Not counting Chapman, Rafaela and Contreras, this list is 12 men long. Maybe don't count Casas, Kelly and Rivera and it's 9. I've spoken about my opinion that there should not really be a 40 man roster crunch, but with some out of options players the 26 man cut off could get problematic. I'm going to assume Gray is a FA. He might come back, but for now, I'll count him out. Sandoval and IKF will be FAs. With all the 60 Day IL players coming back, it seems like a crunch is looming, but here is my breakdown: Solid Roster Players: SP: Tolle, Suarez, Bennett, Bello, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Paez RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Slaten, Weissert, Guerrero, Moran, Gamboa, Olds C: Rutschman, Wong 1B: Contreras, Gasper, Romy 2B: Story, Seigler SS: Arias, Monasterio 3B: Durbin, Seigler LF: Anthony, White CF: Rafaela, Eaton RF: Abreu, Campbell DH: Mead, Yoshida, Jones That's 37. We probably add a SP (Gray?,) a RP'er and a LHB. My guess is Duran might be back at #40 as that LHB. Bubble/Trade: Duran, Samaniego, Cheng, Rivera, Burgos, Kelly, Casas Rule 5 might be: Brannon (1B/DH/C3) and/or Jo Garcia (DH/1B/C3) but we already have Gasper. Maybe we trade 2 of the 3. I think we'll add Wehunt, but not Ward, Romero or Rodgers. Keeping Wehunt means Duran or someone else is traded.

So, we've reached the halfway point between worst and best. Has there ever been such a stark turn-around?

Record since June 25th: 52-26 BOS (+99 run differential) 51-28 TBR (+77) 48-29 MIL 43-31 LAD 44-32 CHC & SDP 44-34 ATL 42-34 PHI