moonslav59

Key word: much.

I think we not only get something good from the Mets, but by including $2.8M to KC, we’ll get something promising from them, too.

I think Ottavino is the default closer.

Money spent this winter (2021 cost listed only): $10M Garrett Richards FA $8M Adam Ottavino Trade $7M Enrique Hernandez FA $5M Martin Perez FA $3.1M Hunter Renfroe FA $3.0M Marwin Gonzalez FA $2.1M Matt Andriese FA $1.2M Hirokazu Sawamura $800K Franchy Cordero Trade +$2.8M Beni -$6.6M Andrew Benintendi ($5M lux tax) Net cost: about $40M. Added 9 players- lost 1 (Beni)

No doubt, 2019 was the beginning of cutting back in some areas. (We also let Kelly go.) Some felt having Eovaldi and Pearce back for a full season would make up the difference. Nobody expected a 24 loss swing.

Here are some recent numbers by current Sox hitters: OPS 1.031 JD in 2018 (.939 in 2019) .959 Dalbec in 2020 (just 92 PAs) .939 Bogey in 2019 (.883 in 2018) .916 Devers in 2019 (.830 career) .907 Marwin G in 2017 (.771 since 2017) .857 Plawecki in 2020 (.708 since 2017- 658 PAs) .844 Verdugo in 2020 (.827 combining 2019 & 2020) .836 EHern in 2015 (.806 in 2018) .805 Renfroe in 2018 (.778 in 2019: 67 HRS in last 965 ABs) .801 Vazquez in 2020 (.798 last 2 years combined- 30 HRs in 655 ABs) .766 Chavis in 2019 (.719 since 2018) .754 Cordero '18-'20 (216 PAs) .736 Arroyo in 2020 Lots of players, here, that have already put up some good numbers.

Seems like he fits right in.

Yes, I stand corrected.

Hey, I tried.

No. I'm saying if this was the Yankee rotation....

So much for "I am giving him a chance. "

Agreed. Only in hindsight does HRam look bad. Had we signed Scherzer & a lesser 3Bman (Headley), we wouldn't have signed Price and might still be "in the window."

LOL! Good stuff and fairly accurate. Can I ask you to one more thing? What would be Jacko's take on this 2021 fictional "Yankee rotation": Sale Richards Eovaldi ERod Pivetta Perez Houck Whitlock Mata

Yes, I agree. 2016 and 2017 were pretty close to "all in" as well. One might argue 2015, but they just spent the money on the wrong guys.

The Bloom adherents are having to make excuses or blame others for the mess . Their loyalty to their guy is commendable . But how long can it last ? Is the mess we're in really Blooms fault? Mostly his fault? It's not excuses or blame. It's reality. Yes, over time, we expects results to improve.

Neither did I.

Some of Blooms words... Before the trade: https://www.wcvb.com/article/red-sox-chief-baseball-officer-chaim-bloom-expects-to-keep-star-mookie-betts-in-boston-for-2020-season/30446891 After the trade: Read where Bloom says he expected to be "applauded" for trading Betts... https://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/28675624/chaim-bloom-says-red-sox-prioritized-big-picture-fan-reaction-trading-mookie-betts

It actually does, in terms of 2 decent SP'ers and rest scrubs, especially on teams with limited spending budgets.

It's a big part of our culture.

I, for one, don't blame Henry or Bloom. I just said it makes more sense to blame Henry (and Dave) than Bloom. How can I blame Henry for bringing us 4 rings and then wanting to reset and walk things back a bit before the next splurge?

I'd have to agree on both Eovaldi and Verdugo with more faith in Verdugo. I like ERod, but his health condition is so wildly unknown, at this time. My sleeper picks- not for all star picks but for surprisingly good years are Pivetta & Cordero. I'm also thinking we might see a mammoth year from Devers. Who knows, maybe even Bogey could have a Betts-like season.

For sure. My point about signing Betts for 10-12 years was that the first 5-7 years would more than make up for the back end, but I'm really over losing Betts, but certainly a deal like that takes a heavy toll on a team. Verdugo looks like a nice pick-up and still has 4 years of team control (ages 25-28). Downs and Wong are still unknowns, but both show promise. We've added a lot of depth to the farm and short term ML contracts to the 26 man roster. Once we decide to spend big again, we'll have a big winter budget to work with. Verdugo was a nice get, but under Bloom's watch we've also added these players to the farm: Downs Seabold Rosario Potts Wong Wallace Arauz German Whitlock Winckowski Koss and draftees Yorke, Jordan & Drohan plus IFA Bleis That's better than I expected.

The 2021 Red Sox Line-Up 1. Cordero CF (The biggest non pitcher question mark. Lot's of raw talent and IL stints) 2. Verdugo RF (Could be poised for a break-out season) 3. Devers 3B (Yes, he can get even better than 2019's season! Will 2021 be "that year?") 4. Bogaerts SS (Steady Bogey!) 5. Martinez DH (Need a bounce back. We don't need 2018 or 2019, but a .850+ OPs would be great) 6. Renfroe LF (He's not as bad vs RHPs as many think - .717 OPS) Marwin? Chavis? Kiki in CF & Cordero platoon?) 7. Dalbec 1B (Next to Cordero, largely an unknown over a full season in the bigs) 8. Vazquez C (Has been somewhat up and down on offense.) 9. E Hernandez 2B (We could end up really loving this guy! Bench: Plawecki (capable back up), Marwin Gonzalez (can play almost anywhere- worst at 2B & CF, though), Arroyo (can play 2B, SS & 3B) & Chavis (Time to prove you belong) 2019 vs 2020 PAs and OPS: 248 Devers .793 (came on at the end. I expect .875+) 237 JD M .680 (hoping for .800+) 225 Bogey .867 (just more of the same, please) 221 .Verdugo 844 (can get better at age 25) 217 JBJ .814 (hard to replace.814 & plus D) 189 Vaz .801 (repeat,please) 158 Chavis .636 (won't play much staying at .636) 126 Pillar .795 (played well for us) 120 Peraza .617 (easy to replace) 92 Dalbec .959 (just give us .800 + with 500 + PAs) 89 Plawecki .857 (not likely to hit like this again) 80 Arauz .644 (may not play at ML level in 2021) 79 Moreland 1.177 (tough to replace, even if we sign him) 57 Lin .355 54 Arroyo .736 52 Beni .442 45 Munoz .844 11 Puello .875 I doubt Chavis gets 7% of our PAs in 2021, so we will likely replace some of his playing time as well as JBJ's 9%, Peraza + Arauz's 9% combined, Pillar's 5% and a combined 6% Moreland+ Beni. (3% Lin, Puello & others). All total, we lost over 33% of our 2020 PA's. They will most likely be replaced by E Hernandez, Renfroe, Cordero and more from Dalbec and Arroyo.

I'm not crying about Betts. I'm optimistic about our future. My point was that we should not blame Bloom for losing Betts and not spending like the Dodgers or the Sox of old. Had we kept Betts and went all austerity like we have, we'd be no better off, now.

The 2021 Pitching Staff I can't help but think we could see a major improvement over 2020 and even 2019, in some cases. Chris Sale: He's the big question mark. Some think it's foolish to think he can ever come close to what he used to be, but he was so great that coming fairly close would be a huge boost, even if for just 2-3 months. Garrett Richards: Another question mark based mostly on health history. The guy can pitch, when healthy, and his upside is so much greater than guys we threw out there last year. Nathan Eovaldi: He stayed pretty healthy in the short 2020 season, and the big if has always been, does he have a full season in him? Eduardo Rodriguez: He was just reaching prime when COVID struck. Now, he's another health questioned starter. Martin Perez and Nick Pivetta: They could both be capable 5th starter types, with Pivetta having some upside to be even better. Both could get 32 starts based on the sketchiness of our top 4 starters. Garrett Whitlock, Bryan Mata, Connor Seabold: If these guys get a lot of starts, we may be doomed for a bad year, but there is also a lot to be excited about, here- maybe not for 2020, but who knows? Adam Ottavino: He has the potential to be a big plus for us. He's a proven RP'er. Matt Barnes: He's got a bad rap for not becoming the closer we needed, but he's still a good set up man. Ryan Brasier: Here's where our pen takes a big step down from most other good teams, but there is hope he can return to 2018 form. Darwinzon Hernandez: He has the most upside potential in our pen. The guy has a near record breaking K/9 rate, but his BB/9 rate has been almost equally amazing in the wrong direction. Maybe, this is the year he reduces his BB rate significantly. Josh Taylor: He showed some pretty good stuff not too long ago. Hirokazu Sawamura: I won't even try to project what he might do, but adding him gives us one more shot at having a meaningful pen arm. Matt Andriese: Who knows? Out of options Austin Brice: No love here. Valdez, Brewer, Bazardo, Weber, Walden, Springs: Not any better than most team's scrubs. Tanner Houck: It's hard not to get optimistic over his 3 starts in 2020, but we really should not expect greatness based on such a tiny sample size. That being said, it's not unlikely he could do very well. A look at the IP and ERAs of last year's SP'ers and you have to sake your head and think, it's almost impossible not to see a vast improvement in this important area, even if guys like Sale & ERod hardly pitch at all. IP and ERA as SP'er ONLY 62 Perez 4.50 48 Eovaldi 3.72 25 Godley 9.49 23 Mazza 5.01 19 Weber 7.11 17 Houck 0.53 14 Brewer 6.91 10 Pivetta 1.80 9.0 Hart 13.00 6.2 Kickham 10.80 4.0 Triggs 2.25 2.2 M Hall 10.13 2.0 Osich 9.00 1.0 Brice, Brasier & Leyer 0.00 Perez, Eovaldi, Houck and Pivetta only pitched 137 out of the 246 IP all of our starters gave us in 2020. That's 55%. Sale, ERod, Richards could eat up a big chunk of those other 45%. If not, I still like more from Houck, Pivetta and anything from Whitlock, Mata and Seabold better than what we saw, last year. The pen should also be better. They gave us more IP than out starters, last year (278 IP). Here were the IP leaders in 2020: 30 Valdez 3.26 24 Weber 2.25 24 Brasier 4.13 23 Barnes 4.30 20 Springs 7.08 19 Brice 6.27 14 Covey 7.07 14 Osich 5.27 13 Stock 4.73 13 Walden 9.45 11 Brewer 3.97 10 Hembree 5.59 8.1 DHern 2.16 7.1 Kickham 4.91 7.1 Taylor 9.82 6.2 Workman 4.05 6.2 Mazza 4.05 6.0 Hall 22.50 20 IP from 8 others (25 ERs) Ottavino should eat up a lot of these scrub's IP. Barnes and DHern should have a higher % of IP. Taylor could help, if he pitches like 2019 not 2020. Brasier could help. Sawamura should not be any worse than most of the departed from this list. Valdez will likely do worse, if he even pitches much.