moonslav59

Let's assume Story, Houck and Casas are on the opening day 40 man roster with Houck going on the 60 Day IL, shortly afterwards, I still maintain we have no major roster crunch. I'll assume Sandlin gets added but not Mullins or others. Depending on how many players we add vs subtract, here is the starting point: 18 Pitchers: Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Houck, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts, Early, Tolle, Perales/ Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Bernardino, Sandlin & Hicks (could be bubble) 6 Bubble Pitchers (options): Murphy (1) Winckowski (0) Moran (0) Criswell (0) Kelly (1) Guerrero (2) My guess is we keep 1 from Murphy & Moran but not 3- 4 zero option pitchers. We may keep 1 from Kelly & Guerrero or two from the zero option guys, We keep 3 of the 3 bubble pitchers making it 20 total pitchers. 14 Everyday players (We will have at least 17 on opening day.) 2 Catchers: Narvaez & Wong 2 1B: Casas & Campbell (LF) 2 2B: Romy (1B/3B) & DHam 1 SS: Story 1 3B: Mayer 2 LF: Duran & Anthony 1 CF: Rafaela 2 RF: Abreu & Jh Garcia 1 DH: Yoshida 4 Bubble: Sogard, Eaton, Grissom, N Lowe (non tender?) I think we keep Sogard and maybe Eaton, and that would make 16 everyday players. 20 Pitchers + 16 everyday players leaves room for 4 net additions. SP2 1B 2B/3B ??? (maybe someone on the 40, now) Then, we add someone when Houck goes on the 60. If we can pull off a 2 or 3 for one trade, we'll have even less of a roster crunch. (I'm thinking Duran & Sandlin for Lodolo) Some bad depth teams might like guys like Murphy, DHam, Kelly and Guerrero enough to make a 2 or 3 for 1 type trade, where we obtain just a slight upgrade player.

"not counting on Casas" as the FT 1Bman does not mean writing him off. Of course, if they tender him, they think he might play a key role, someday. I think he can easily beat out Yoshida as the DH, if he gets back to health and previous form. My point was we need to plan on another FT 1BMan for 2025- not a Toro type add. Not a Casas-Romy-Campbell dice roll, although I do think they may like that "mix" enough to go one more year running the same crew out there again. I hope we add a 1Bman PLUS a 3B/2Bman with Mayer/Romy covering the "other" slot. Casas can be viewed as possible 1B depth or DH full-timer status, if healthy. Again, we'll run up against the what to do with Yoshida issue, and even if we trade Duran, I doubt he'll be viewed as having LF opportunities. We'd have to tarde Abreu, too, and even then, we have Garcia & Campbell as LF competition for Masa, even if we see him as a possible OF'er. (I hope not.) I don't trade Casas. I would not non-tender him. He has .800+ and 30+ HR potential, which is just what we need most. He might be a long shot, but how many other players do we have with that potential? Abreu? Anthony by 2027 or 2028? Not Story. Not Mayer. Not Yoshida or even a Yoshida/Romy platoon. Not Narvaez & Rafaela. Maybe Jh Garcia is a long shot, but that would most likely be 2-3 years away as with Anthony. Campbell? I doubt it. I guess one could argue we don't need an .800 and 30+ HR guys, if we can have 9 guys batting .750-.790 with 20-25 HRs, but how likely is that?

Duran does have 3 years of control, so it's not like a team needs to totally be in win now mode, but your point is well taken. Yes, CIN and KC might be the best match-ups, and MN is rarely in total tear down mode. (My guess is they keep Buxton, so that kinda shows they want to stay somewhat relevant all the time.) We can also include enough prospect or young player value to entice a team to give us a good, young pitcher with some team control. (They could also flip Duran, later, like at the deadline.) Another obvious solution would be a 3 way trade, where we send Duran to a contender, they send team C prospects, and we get a guy like Ryan or better. I think a Duran & Sandlin/Mullins for Lodolo makes a lot of sense to both teams. That trade would then allow us to make up for the loss of Bregman and Duran via free agency. The hope that Anthony more than makes up for the loss of Duran is central to this idea, but in reality, we also have to make up for the loss of Devers, too. Devers, Bregman and Duran were our top 3 offensive players going into 2025. Replacing them will not be easy, even if some kids step it up, bigtime. IMO, signing Alonso or Schwarber would not be enough. I'm not sure Bichette & Hoskins would be either. Maybe Suarez and Hoskins or Alonso & Suarez, but how realistic is that? We'd be over the tax line.

IMO, we need to plan on Casas never coming back, and if he does, he could DH and maybe be an emergency back-up 1Bman. We have Yoshida at $18M x 2, so that throws a wrench into the idea, and both are LHBs. I do not think we non tender Casas, as his potential to return to form is too valuable to throw away, and I do not see a 40 man roster crunch that others seem to think we have. Sure, it makes it tough to have the right depth, when we have to start the season with Houck taking a 40 man slot, and then Casas, too. Someone like Dobbins, Crawford, Fitts and perales might need to be on the 10 Day IL to start the season as well. That's a lot of unknown health issues to carry over the winter, but guys like Grissom, Eaton, Sogard, DHam, de Leon, Wink, Kelly, Guerrero and maybe others are near replacement level value or waiver wire similar. It's not ideal, but we should keep Casas, at least until ST'ing. This is also a reason I would like to see us add just 3-4 HIGHER QUALITY players this winter (maybe even just 2 top quality) over 4-6 semi-high quality guys. Stay away from adding more highly questionable players. We are already maxed out.

Agreed. His value on another team as an OF'er is much higher than to us as a 1Bman. I was just showing a way we could keep his plus offense on the team without spending or trading for a 1Bman. I am not for this idea. I think we should trade Duran as part of a package for a solid SP'er. My second choice would be to trade Abreu or Rafaela. Duran to 1B is not even my 10th idea.

I was really pulling for an Alabama loss. They needed a late score and 2 pt conversion to pull off the win. I'd love to see Vandy make the playoffs.

He's not all that streaky. He was off to a horrible start in 2025, and has had slow starts in other seasons, but over his small sample size career, he seems more consistent than many others. By month: .766 in 27 games in 2022 (Rookie) 2023: .576 APR>.766>.851>1,199>.918>.858 (one of the few who stayed hot to the end) 2024: .857 APR> Injured> .749 AUG>.790 SEP 2025: .590 in 29 games He's basically had 2 months under .749 out of 11. (I counted 2022 and 2025 as one month samples, as he played in 27 & 29 games..) To me, this guy is a proven hitter. The doubts about his future are almost all tied to his unique injury that can be career ending.

I'm very hesitant on trading young pitching, too, but it is a strength we have and others want. We have great rotation depth, but in the form of 8-11 number 4/5 slot levels. Then, we have 3-4 ML ready very promising pitchers followed by groups of 3-4 promising prospects at 1-2, 2-3 and 3-4 years away. I know the risk of trading the next Priester is very concerning, and that trade puts into doubt the ability of Brez and Co. to judge who are the right young pitchers to include in trades. This was one of the few times I suggested trading young pitchers as part of packages for everyday players. My main plan would be to only trade young pitchers when we get an established, young & controlled pitcher in return. Sign FA everyday player.

How about Casas, Kelly & Crawford for Peralta and Duran, Dobbins, Sandlin & Perales for K Marte. Sign Alonso, Ref & Matz. 1. L Anthony LF 2. S K Marte 2B 3. L Abreu RF/R Ref RF 4. R Alonso 1B 5. L Yoshida DH/ R Romy DH 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF

How about trading for Peralta ($8M/1 remaining.) They could use a 1Bman to replace Hoskins. I'm not sure they want to take a big flyer on Casas, but Romy might be someone the want. They'd probably like some pen help or one of our younger SP'ers, but no way they get Early, Tolle or other top pitching prospects for 1 year of Peralta. Would MIL accept: Casas & Crawford or Dobbins? Romy & Harrison or Perales? Maybe we'd need to add Dandlin or Mullins. Maybe offering Harrison, Perales or Dobbins is too much. Casas or Romy plus Crawford? Could we do this with a Duran for Lodolo deal? Crochet, Lodolo, Peralta, Bello and _____ (Sandoval/Harrison/Dobbins/Early/Tolle/Perales) Spend the winter budget on a couple big bats.

No bid losses, today. Alabama almost lost. Next week: Penn St at 1 Ohio St 2 Indiana at MD Florida at 5 GA 7 GA Tech at NC St. So Car at 8 Ole Miss 9 MIA at SMU 10 Vandy at 22 TX (only 1 of two games among top 20's) 12 ND at BC 13 OKL at 17 TN (second game between top 20's) 14 TX Tech at K St 16 VA at CA

Hendriks was a RP'er. I only listed starters, and brace yourself: it will be $10M for Hendriks, not $8M. It's not that Brez has done awful with pen additions. Our pen has done very well under Brez. 2024-2025: 10.3 pen fWAR placed 6th in MLB. Brez Pen Adds: Chapman: the best season by a Sox closer EVAH! Slaten: 4.24 (34 IP '25) & 2.93 (55 IP in '24) Weissert: 2.28 (67 IP '25) & 3.13 (63 IP in '24) Wilson: 3.35 (48 IP '25) Matz: 2.08 (22 IP '25) Newcomb: 3.38 (19 IP '25) Alcara: 3.31 (16 IP '25) Burdi: 0.00 (5 IP '25) Meh: Chase Anderson: 4.11 (50 IP '24) Shugart 4.15 in 9 IP ('24) BUST: Hicks, I Campbell, B Keller, Joely, Horn & Hendricks

Pytho said we shoulda won 92.

VTek expected to sign extension soon to be back as a coach for the Sox. Soteropulos was promoted to assistant hitting coach.

We have some very nice rotation depth but do need a solid #2. Crochet _______ Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Fitts (Houck '27) Early, Tolle, Holobetz, Clarke, Paez, Aita, Wehunt Criswell, Winkowski, Uberstine, Drohan, Monegro Valera, Fajardo, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson Tygart, Neely, Travieso, J Bello, Morgan, Patton, Delzine, Cason

Brez has been all hot or miss on SP'er additions, with very few in the middle. Crochet trade: great Crochet extension: looks great, so far, Sale trade: biggest bust under his tenure. Giolito: started off badly, but worked out okay. (The one middle of the road add.) Sandoval: so far TBD, but he was supposed to give us 1-2 months in 2025. Buehler: Big waste of $21M Priester: great get (N Yorke) but TBD trade (looked bad for 2025, but Holobetz, YRod and J bello TBD.) Fitts: could work out okay. (Weissert had been the prize.) Criswell: good deal for a flyer add. D May: Deadline trade bust. Paxton: near deadline bust Newcomb: shoulda kept him for the pen. That's a lot of moves for 2 seasons, and I did not include drafted SP'ers.

I will not be one bit surprised if we bring back close to the status quo. I will not look to that as something I agree to. I can see 4-5 needs, but to me, we need to concentrate on adding high(er) quality, at the expense of filling all our needs. We have a lot of depth, so I'd rather pin my hopes and prayers one someone filling the 4th and 5th slots from within the system. Our SP'er depth can help cover the pen needs. Players like Casas/Romy (1B) Mayer/Romy/DHam/Sogard (3B) or Mayer/Romy/Sogard/Eaton (3B) can be allowed to fill the other slot. I'd rather add 3 higher quality players than 5, and adding 5 would create a roster crunch we currently don't really have. An argument can be made to add 4 (less) quality players and then making a 3 for 1 trade to fill all 5 needs, but I still like the idea of just adding the 3 best players we can get for the winter budget we will have plus one big trade. Sure, Suarez is a risk. I'm not thrilled with the idea, but I'm thinking he may be one guy JH allows to spend on, due to the lower length of the deal vs Alonso, Schwarber or Bichette. Suarez could be an enormous bust, and there are reasons he's bene traded so often and signed to shorter term deals. If we keep it to 3 high quality players- one being by trade, then maybe we can hope for Alonso and someone like Polanco/Torres/Castro/Rengifo/BLowe for 2B. Something like Alonso, Polanco and Lodolo might do it. If we could get Lodolo for Campbell, Garcia and Crawford and keep Duran and Abreu- all the better. 1. L Anthony LF 2. S Polanco 2B 3. L Duran DH (R Refsnyder/R Romy DH) 4. R Alonso 1B 5. L Abreu RF/ R Refsnyder RF 6. R Story SS 7. L Mayer 3B/ R Romy 3B 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Romy, Ref, Wong, DHam/Sogard/Eaton/Romero SP: Crochet, Lodolo, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford (AAA: Early, Tolle, Harrison, Dobbins, Perales) RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Matz, Weissert, Bernardino, Fitts, Hicks (AAA: Murphy, Wink, Moran, Criswell, Kelly, Guerrero, Sandlin, Mullins, Song.)

I'm not for signing a FA, pitcher this winter, and not just because none jump out at me as sure fire SP'ers. I've mentioned Merrill Kelly on a 2 year deal as an option, but I'd like to see us trade for Greene, Lodolo or maybe Ryan. Spend on big bats. I'm with Drew and others on letting the defense take care of itself, except that I do not think signing a DH only bopper as the best idea. (Better than nothing, though.) If all we have is $40-45M to spend this winter, I'd do this... Alonso (1B/DH) or Suarez (3B/1B) 2B: Torres, B Lowe, Castro, Rengifo (3B?) or Moncada (3B/2B) If no 1Bman from line one, then maybe Hoskins, Naylor, O'Hearn or Bell Matz or the like. I guess I'd be okay with Bichette and Hoskins, but it's no big upgrade on power. I doubt we can get Bichette & Suarez for under $45M AAV, unless we defer a bunch of cash.

He'd be a slight upgrade over Bregman, mostly due to his age. Yes, 29 HRs back in 2021. Big whoop. We'd need a Bregman or Bichette AND a Suarez or Alonso. To me, Bichette will cost way to much for 20-25 Hrs and maybe an .800 season. If all we do is Bichette (not Breggie), Gio and Matz, I'm not expecting any better results than 2025's. Of course, we can with better health and or better seasons from several players, but every team has that hope and prayer.

soxprospects.com has these guys out of options: Winckowski Criswell Grissom Lowe Moran I doubt we wait until ST'ing to see if Grissom can make the 26. He'll be traded or DFA'd, unless we trade DHam, instead. (Even then, maybe...) Lowe will be non tendered, IMO, but we may sign him back, if we pass on all the others. I'd keep Moran around, but no biggie, if we trade him. Same with Wink. I'd keep Criswell around, but the problem is that he kinda sucks out of the pen, and we have 10 SP'ers ahead of him. I think he's good enough to be traded not DFA'd. Just hope he doesn't pull a Priester.

I think it would be dumb to non tender him. We've sign more expensive pitchers on the IL, like Paxton, Sandoval, and even Hendriks cost more than $4M/yr. Houck was our best pitcher in 2024, and he has nasty stuff. We don't really have a 40 man roster crunch, either, so that is not a reason to let him go. Even if he comes back as a RP'er or closer in 2027, he should be worth the $4M for 2026 and $4M for 2027- essentially $8M for 2027.

Casas has 3 options, according to sp.com. I'm sure Cora believes Story is the best defensive SS in MLB, so I'm not sure how Brez gets Story to 2B. He couldn't even get the no brainer Devers to 1B done. I'd be fine with Mayer at SS and Story at 2B, too. I'm not so sure about Story at 3B, but if we traded for KMarte, I'd be okay with Story at 3B, Mayer at SS, K Marte at 2B and someone new at 1B. Hopefully, we get a bid power bat at 1B, but that would require outbidding everyone for Alonso or Suarez.

Then, a resounding NO on trading for him. If we want him that badly, sign him next winter.

All true. I've been saying we need 3 top quality players for a long time- a SP and 2 power bats (1B, 2B/3B.) I have never defended JH & Co. for spending less than other teams, especially since 2020. I've never denied that he CAN spend more but has chosen not to do so, for the most part. I have been known to point out that his past was full of ups and downs in spending. There was some complaining, but as long as the rings kept coming every 3-5 years, we were pretty much okay with it. Now that 7 years have ticked away, and we've watched all our biggest stars walk away or be traded, we have rightfully become angry or frustrated. The lack of spending only multiplies that anger. These are fact, too: we cut over $20M from 2009 (1/7th) and from 2012 to 2013 (1/9th). We made a massive cut from 2019 to 2020, but that wasn't the end of it. What has been overlooked a little is that the Sox also upped spending by $20M+ from 2021 to 2022 and from 2024 to 2025, but since so many other teams had jumped their spending significantly, we have not been a top 10 spender since 2022. (Yes, we were #6 in 2022.) Had we stayed the same as 2022 spending in 2023, we'd have still dropped out of the top 10. That's no excuse, but it does show that a major reason we have dropped in the rankings is more about other teams spending way more than JH spending way less. Another example that emphasizes this is that JH spent $23M more in '24 than '25 but we only went from #13 to #12. He followed that up with a $22M uptick and went from #12 to #11, according to Steve the Ump. Again, I am not defending JH & Co. The team makes a ton of revenue- more than 27 other teams! We should be a top 3-4 spending team, of at least a top 6 team. There is no excuse. I'll never agree that it's okay not to spend top 6. (There is a big drop from #6 to #7.) According to cots, our CB Tax line for 2025 was $246M, which ranks 7th, but with Devers, Bregman, Buehler, Gio and a few smaller deals off the books, this winter, we are right back to square one- wondering what the hell JH is going to do. I have zero expectations that he will spend a lot. I'm hoping he at least agrees to spend up to the tax line, and that might be just enough to barely meet our biggest needs, but I won't be shocked if he doesn't. I'd love to see us spend up to the second line, but that would be at a year two tax rate. Horrors! I agree that we have wasted money trying to go cheap on pitching, although we did spend $40M on Buehler + Sandoval, which is 3-4 times what we've spent on pitching since the Sale & Nate extensions. We need to do better, and I think we have to follow the Crochet, Sale, Schilling and Pedro model- trade for one, then extend him. Use the budget space to sign 2 big bats. Forget the 4-5 mediocre additions: go bold and just add 3 of the highest quality players we can get vis trade and $pending.

He's a big downtick from Alonso, but he did better than the whole Sox team at 1B in 2025 and 2024: 2024: .266 27 71 Vientos (413 PAs) .238 20 75 Boston (640) 2025: .233 17 61 Vientos (463 PAs) .244 16 76 Boston (662)