moonslav59

I think we'd have to force Yoshida or Hicks into the deal as a salary balance or partial balance part of any offer made.

I think Cincy need offense enough that they may trade from pitching depth. Yes, Singer would make the most sense, but for the right offensive player(s) they may part with Lodolo. I don't think they'll offer Greene. I think they'd take Duran and Garcia for Lodolo. Campbell could be subbed for Garcia, but we might want something more from their side, or force then to take Hicks with KC & Duran. I'm not sure I add KC, even with Hicks. Does BTV have KC+ Hicks about equal to Jh Garcia?

That's like a triple negative. I'd be okay trading him, but there is a non-zero chance he doesn't has the same trade vale as last winter.

He should stay above Story going forward and being 5 years younger. Some players gain power as they pass ages 27-28, but even if he stays even, he should be higher than a 33 year old Story. Story is likely a better defensive 2Bman.

I think we add Sandlin and select nobody. Mullins might be worth adding to the 40, especially if we know we have a 2 or 3 for 1 deal in the making. Once we add FAs, we can always DFA a bubble guy or make another trade. I think Wink and Criswell have some minor trade value. Trade one for a non 40 man prospect.

True. He's about even with Story on HRs, but counting age projection might be a slight uptick. We'd still need to add major power at the corner IF position. 2025 ISO: .170 Story (.168 2022-2024) Turns 33 in NOV .172 Bichette (.162 '22-'24) Turns 28 in March SLG .433 Story (.415 '22-'24) .483 Bichette (.453 '22-'24)

If we really like our "fringey" players that much and are looking for a way to keep them, we can trade 2-3 non fringey players for 1 much better player and open up 1-2 slots. Duran, Crawford and DHam (barely a step above fringey.)

We may be able to sneak a couple guys through waivers, but if someone claims out-of-options Grissom, Moran, Wink or Criswell, will we feel crushed? Same with players with options like Kelly, Guerrero, Eaton and maybe Sogard. I would not shed a tear if we DFA Hicks or even Masa, but I think we could trade them by paying 70-90% of their contracts. (That could add a handful of $M of dollars to the winter budget.) I could also see a trade like Duran + Dandlin for Lodolo which would free up one more slot. Maybe Duran, DHam & a 40 man roster pitcher (Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts, Harrison) for a much better pitcher. I agree, not many teams are looking to add 2 to their 40 man crunch. The Crochet trade was just 2 guys from the 40 plus 2 prospects.

That's how I see it. He can't be much worse than Toro, except on D. We've needed 1B depth every season since I can't remember when.

And when you look at the bubble players already on the 40 that could be traded or DFA'd without much worry, IMO there is no major 40 man roster crunch. Kelly or Guerrero Out of options: Grissom, Criswell, Winckowski, Moran Salary dumps: Masa & Hicks Trade? Murphy, DHam, Eaton or Sogard

BINGO! Even if he ends up not playing a single game in 2026, I'd prefer rolling the dice on him than some of the bubble players mentioned beforehand.

It's more than DET offered him when he was a year younger. It won't be $110M/4 and likely under $150M/5. I'd guess between $120M/4 & $140M/5.

We could then afford Bichette (maybe Mayer at SS & Bichette at 2B.)

K Campbell should be listed as 1B depth.

If I had to choose I'd go with Harrison as the #5. (Crawford is second in line.) Fitts should be in the pen. ESPN says Dobbins should be 100% ready for ST'ing, so I doubt he starts the year on the 60, like Houck will after opening day. AAA rotation: Dobbins, Harrison or Crawford, Early, Tolle & Perales (Maybe one of these 5 go to the MLB pen with Fitts (Crawford?) and Uberstine is the 5th man. Criswell is out of options, along with Wink & Moran. I doubt any would pass through waivers, but are also not high trade targets for other teams looking at their own 40 man roster squeezes. We may try to keep them around by fitting them into the opening day ML roster, but we also have Hicks crowding the 8 man pen. Chapman Whitlock Slaten Weissert Bernardino Fitts Hicks _______ One slot for Criswell, Wink or Moran (Fitts and Bernardino have options remaining, so may be they start the season off the 26, just so we keep viable pen choices alive. I'd love to see us find a way to trade Hicks and his $12M x 2 remaining contract. I'd rather have any of these guys I mentioned on the 26 over him, and even Murphy and maybe even Kelly/Guerrero or a converted SP'er.

Houck could likely be a great set-up man in '27, if we choose not to start him. (Hint: Whitlock become a FA after 2026.)

They stuck with KC a very long time, too, but then again they stuck with Toro for a very long time, too, so I'm not sure we can read too much into length of leashes. Campbell had been ripping up pitchers upon every promotion, then started out very well in early April. I doubt they cut him as much slack, next spring, but who knows. I do think they may hand Mayer the 2B or 3B job. I'm not sure how long his leash will be, but at least he's okay on D. That makes it easier to lengthen the leash. We also have Jh Garcia looking ready for a legit shot at some serious MLB playing time, but with a team looking to get to the next level, I'm not sure how many slots we open up for unproven youngsters beyond Mayer & Anthony.

One 3 week streak? I found one over 100 games long. Try 3+ months. I may disagree with you, but you won't get banned from here for posts like these. We don't have much talent that needs Rule 5 protection. One could argue Sandlin is borderline. To me, we can easily get down to 36 players while keeping Casas, Houck and Sandlin. Say good bye to Grissom & N Lowe. Keep one from Kelly and Guerrero. Keep Sogard over Eaton. Keep two from Criswell, Wink, Moran and Murphy (the first 3 have zero options) That's an easy 36. Leave room for 4 FAs. Houck was our ace in '24. Casas is the only guy on our roster who has averaged 30 Hrs per 650 and an .800+ OPS. You wanna keep Sogard and eaton over him?

The Casas injury is very hard to come back from. With Mayer, it's been different injuries, but none career threatening. I'd trade Duran and Sandlin for Lodolo. Sign one of these pairs: Bregman (3B) and Suarez (1B)- Mayer/Romy plays 2B Suarez (3B) and Hoskins (1B)- Mayer/Romy plays 2B Alonso (1B) and Torres (2B) Castro (2B) Rengifo (2B) or B Lowe (2B)- Mayer/Romy plays 3B KMart (2B via trade) and Suarez/Hoskins (1B)- Mayer/Romy at 3B Maybe bring back Matz & Refsnyder, too.

Yes, I just presented the starting point for the winter and 2026. If we add nobody or just a bunch of scrubs, I'll be driving the anti-JH wagon, myself. (I may not deserve it, but I will very quickly. I don't even think adding Bregman, Hoskins and Merrill Kelly would be "enough," but I might not get rabid over it.

I read somewhere the cost might end up being $110M/4. If so, he shoulda taken the remaining $80M/2 from the Sox. I'd probably offer him that, but we'd still need a bigger bat.

The thing is, we can't afford to let him learn at the MLB level, at least at 2B. We can maybe hide him at 1B or LF, but even then, I'd like to see him play a few weeks/months at AAA first. His best spot might be LF, but we have about 6 of those, not counting Masa. He also needs to earn his way back at the plate, but I feel less insecaure about that aspect of his game. I would not feel comfortable telling him, "You are our starting ____, so work hard over the winter and be ready for ST'ing. The job is yours to keep or lose."

He's 22 and has oodles of control years left. I seriously doubt it, unless we dangle our top young players. Emphasis on the "s."

BA is so out of style. Casas has hit way more than one hot streak. He's been over .766 in 3 of his 4 seasons, although 1 of those 3 was just 27 games (the .766 season.) However, the oner season he did not hit over .766 was 29 games long. He's hit over .800 in his two longest seasons. Both of those seasons, he had OBPs above .337 and SLG above .462. Those two seasons combined totaled 745 PAs with an .838 OPS w 37 HRs. I'll take the .256 BA or even .240, if he hits 30+ Hrs and has an OPS over .800. You should, too. (127 OPS+) So, one hot streak? 2022: .441 in first 14 games and 1.069 in last 13 games- 1 hot streak 2023: .580 in first 29 games and .931 last 103 games- 2nd hot streak and 103 games long! (Over 3 x as long as the cold streak) 2024: .682 in first 11 games and .828 in last 52 games- 3rd hot streak and way longer than the cold one. 2015: .466 in first 21 games and .800 in the 8 games right before going on the IL. I won't count that as hot streak #4, and it was shorter than the cold streak, but basically... Casas has had 4 cold streaks of 14, 29, 11 and 21 games long. That's 85 out of his 251 game career. Sure, he might be the next Dalbec, but Bobby D didn't have 251 games within hot streaks. Look, he may never hit well, again, but we don't have to pretend he was a streaky hitter with long cold snaps.

If we add nobody, this might be the 2026 line-up: 1. L Anthony LF 2. R Story SS 3. L Duran DH 4. L Abreu RF. 5. R Romy 2B/ L DHam 6. L Mayer 3B 7. L Casas 1B/ R Romy 1B 8. R Narvaez C 9. R Rafaela CF Bench: Wong, Romy/DHam, Yoshida, Sogard SP: Crochet, Bello, Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Slaten, Weissert, Fitts, Dobbins, Bernardino, Hicks 13 on Farm + Houck to 60 Day IL Early, Tolle, Perales, Murphy, Kelly, Guerrero, Sandlin (Must clear waivers: Criswell, Wink & Moran) Campbell, Jh Garcia, Eaton (Grissom would have to clear waivers)