moonslav59

2.5 years in and these are the Brez additions: Crochet, Ranger, Sony, Oviedo, Sandoval Chapman, Slaten, Weissert, Harrison, Watson, Moran, Hicks Contreras, Narvaez, Romy, Eaton Early, Witherspoon, Bennett, Sandlin, Phillips, Eyanson, Holobetz, Samaniego, Delzine & others J Gonzales, Godbout, Soto, Azocar, Ramos, Rivas, Cason, Guzman, Heyman, Primera, Silverio & others Others he added but are now gone: Bregman, Giolito, O"Neil, Buehler, Wilson, Grissom, Criswell and others

We are logjammed at DH & OF. Unless we play Rafaela at 2B, Masa only plays if an OF'er sits, and since 3 of our 4 OF'ers are LHB, it's not complicated. It would be better to offload Masa over Hicks (with Duran) even if we paid enough money to even it with Hicks. The flex we give Cora is a big plus: DH: Vientos/Casas/Romy/Campbell 3B: Baty/Vientos/Mayer/Eaton 2B: Mayer-Romy/ Baty/DHam 1B: Contreras/Vientos.Casas Yes, we lose OF depth, but we still have Campbell to play LF. (If we trade Hicks not Masa, we'd have Masa as LF depth.)

So, 78 to 81 to 89 wins was just blind luck by an incompetent GM? "just about everything" is a phrase I fully disagree with. He refocused the pitching from the farm, to 40 man and 26 man rosters. He has extended our best young players beyond their last arb year like no other Sox GM, thereby lessening the chances we lose our stars to free agency- something that has been a huge thorn in our side since DD's departure. He has made several unquestionable good trades and signings/extensions that automatically brings into question your "everything" statement all by itself. He's made mistakes- some big ones. He's not a good communicator. He's at worst, partially responsible for the Devers fiasco and ultimate trade. The Sale trade might have made some sense, at the time, but backfired on both ends in spectacular fashion. The Priester trade looked bad, last year but is still TBD. The Buehler signing was bad and twice the cost of Kluber or Richards. There are some lesser deals that were bad or look bad, so far, but there have been many good to great deals and signings and extensions. Not everything has been bad, and we have clearly improved.

I see Vientos as close to even with Masa but with more power. I see power as the bigger need. I do prefer a RHB Masa vs a LHB Masa, in theory. I think Baty + Vientos > Duran + Masa, since Duran and Masa are both our DH's. We fill an open position and replace out two DHs with one, and yes he's a RHB. (We still have LHB Casas to DH, if needed.)

Who are you arguing with? I keep saying I agree he should spend more. I point out he's spent $50M more than 2024, but that is not enough, since he had cut so much from 2019, that context is needed. However, do you really think a top 6 spending team can never have a significant hope of winning a ring, especially a team with several lower paid pre-arb and arb players? A team with several young players locked up for many years at what will eventually be below market costs. (Right now, for example, K Campbell's $7.5M looks like an underwater deal.)

My whole point of the trade is that it frees up the money that might be currently keeping us from signing E Suarez, now. There were reports we have talked to ESuarez's agents. We might also be waiting for the Suarez price to drop. We may be waiting on a trade to reach a yes point before pivoting to Suarez. Suarez has not signed elsewhere, either, so we have no way of knowing if we are the front-runner or not- or a top 2-3 frontrunner. I'm not as high in ESuarez as I was earlier in the winter. He glove sucks and we added a 1Bman. We have 4 -5 DHs, now. Trading Duran takes away our best DH option, so that dynamic changes because of the trade. The budget relief from adding Masa or Hicks allows for a significant addition, whether it's ESuarez or some higher priced trade target. Maybe it allows us to trade for Paredes and sign a RP'er or two. There is merit to the idea of trading Duran plus Hicks/Masa to allow us to add 2 key pieces.

I'd only do it if the $10.3M AAV for Hicks plus the $7.7M saved on Duran allow us to add someone like E Suarez. Duran & Hicks <<< Baty & Suarez (with the $21M saved) I do think Duran is better than Baty, but I see Duran as our 2026 DH or mostly at DH. His OPS maybe be marginally better than Masa/Romy/Casas/Campbell. The gain we see from Baty vs DHam/Romy is larger than the loss from Duran vs Masa & Co, Now, if you want to say Masa=Suarez, then okay.

Does that show budget vs revenue? (It would have to be projected 2026 revenue, too.) I applied this year's budget to last year's revenue and it bumped us up a few slots, but I'm not sure how accurate that methodology is. I'm not sure how many teams have jumped their spending by $26M. My guess is our ranking from 2024 to 2026 will improve but still be under #16. I'm not sure being near the middle of the pack is something to get irate about.

That all makes sense, but we are projected at 23rd in everyday player fWAR, which includes defense. While I don't put total faith in fWAR nor projected anything, it is so low that even if they said 15th, I'd be worried our offense is worse than 2025 and maybe even below average. fangraphs has our batting projected to be ranked 16th, as far as I can tell. If we added a Paredes or even Donovan, we'd likely be above average, but maybe not top 10. Last year our offense was ranked 11th with out OPS at #9. We were 7th in Runs but the home field advantage needs to be factored in. That being said, we were 6th in road runs and 8th in runs scored at home.

You do know that when negotiations are ongoing, the Cubs and Sox are not in the room together. The other team's offer is not known. Posturing, bluffing and lines in the sand are the nature of the game. It's very frustrating to watch us miss out, time-after-time, and Breggie was a key piece to the 2026 team's needs. It sucks we lost him due to misjudging the "bluff" or turning Breggie off with our attitude and negotiation tactics. To me, we already went past the limit of a fair offer, and I prefer Suarez, anyway. This isn't as bad as missing out on Alonso by a mile. This isn't as bad as the decision to add a #2 SP'er AND a #3, instead of spending more on hitting, and this one is not on JH, for once. It's on Brez. While there is still time for him to add a bat (2B/3B) I'm not seeing a bat that meets out needs being mentioned.

Saying there is not enough facts known to say Brez was at fault of not in not giving him the benefit of doubt. It is holding off assigning blame until such facts are known, if they ever are. I have agreed he is a very poor communicator. I agreed that at best he looked "funny" in the way he called the Cubs bluff that turned out to not be a bluff. I agree Breggie wanted to play for us, and we wanted him with us. I suggested Brez mistakenly spent the money he could have used on Bregman on Suarez, Sonny Gray & Contreras to get both Suarez and Bregman, with some left over for another key addition. I have said the Sale trade backfired, but it's hard for me to roast Brez, when I liked the trade at the time. If that is always giving Brez the benefit of doubt, then I guess I'm guilty under your criteria. How about the posters that view everything he does in a negative light? When he trades for Crochet, they say that was a no-brainer. The extension, too, right after they say JH won't allow large and long contracts. (They said that before the Suarez signing, too.) Why not call them out? I try to be balanced and fair. Not that you are not trying to be fair. I don't thin it's fair to bash Brez, if the facts turn out to be we never could have signed him due to either the NTC, the deferments or the top dollar amount that was allowed to be given. It's not taking Brez's side. If he could have offered what it took to get him but chose not to, fine- blame away. I thought the offer we gave Bregman was a gross overpay to begin with and I prefer the Suarez signing 100%. If you view that opinion as being a giving Brez the benefit of the doubt, then I'll have to firmly disagree with your opinion. I wish we had Bregman not Gray. The money is not equal, so I'm not sure that was a choice. I'd rather have Gray and Contreras than Bregman, and I know that was possible, because it happened. Their AAV is much higher than Bregman's but their years of control are 1 (Gray) and 3 (Contreras.) I think Brez went too heavy on pitching and too light on batting, but I never saw Bregman as the "big bat" we needed. I see Contreras as about equal to Breggie's offense. I'm usually all about adding top SP'ers, but I did not see this winter as the monet we needed to add two. I'm critical of that choice. If we end up getting some slouch to play 3B or 2B, I will be very vocal against the choices Brez has made, this winter. I do think we are better than 2025, but like Fred and others, I had much higher hopes than just getting a little better.

He just agreed to "all" of something I said, so maybe he has a cold or something.

Okay, but we are spending $26M more than 2025, so you have to figure that "23" is outdated. The A's and Royals have such low revenue numbers that they shouldn't even be allowed to have a team.

He might have convinced himself Contreras is a "big bat." Willson does have an .817 OPS since 2013. Only 28 batters have more PAs and a higher OPS than that in MLB, so there is a smidgeon of support to that belief. Want some context? .817 is 10 less than Alonso's 3 year OPS. It's 7 points higher than Duran's. It's 21 points higher than Bregman. 14 more than Tatis. 24 more than Paredes & Machado. Yes, Contreras is aging and has declined, so the 3 year numbers might be misleading, but one could say Bregman's 2025 numbers were an outlier and his downward trend has been evident before his half year spurt to start 2025. How about just 2025? Only 43 batters had more PAs (563) and a higher OPS (.791) than Willson. Bregman did not meet the PAs cutoff of 550, but Willson's OPS was higher than Duran's and only about 20 points from top 30 status. He's not a "big bat," I agree, but he comes pretty close- kinda like how close Gray is as a #2 SP'er. I fully understand how "coming close" has become the Sox mantra under Brez- both in key negotiations and in on the field results. I do think the Ranger signing rose above the "came close" trend. I think combining Gray & Contreras makes for a very significant gain, maybe just not in the areas we needed most.

I disagree with this. A top 6 spending team with all the young and controlled players we have has a clear shot at winning it all in the next 3-5 years.

I've never disagree with this, and my bet is we are no longer 23rd. Not that being 15th or 16th changes the point made all that much.

YES, and add to that, he has to prove he can even hit .700. He also has to show he doesn't need a platoon. That's a multidimensional what if. One might call it "multi-suspect."

I expected more additions to the offense, too. I kinda think Contreras will be about as good as Bregman on offense in 2026, but the loss of 3B defense hurts. Sticking to just the offense, that leaves replacing Devers. If you count just the 330 PAs from Devers in 2025, one can hand those to Anthony and say, there it is fixed. I don't see it that way. We need a middle order bat with some power, I'd like him to be RH'd but at this point, I'd take anything. I'd even settle on two moderate positional improvements over one big bat. The problem is which two? One is easy: 3B or 2B, but the other would be? Catcher? 2B or 3B and send Mayer to AAA (or use him in a trade for a surer bet at the plate?) DH and DFA/trade Masa for nothing? SS? How do we do this and get JH to agree to the spending it would likely take to make happen?

I'm all for JH spending more. My point is, if he won't and Brez was given a guideline on the budget, maybe he should have spent more on bats not arms. He nearly spent on Bregman over Suarez, and that would have balanced the bats vs arm spending about evenly. Our budget is $50M higher than 2024 and about $26M more than 2025 (AAV numbers,) so in a sense Brez has spent the Devers, Bregman, Gio and Buehler money, and then some. However, some was spent on Anthony, Campbell and upticks to Crochet and Chapman plus some minimal arb raises. It's hard to count those as added spending, since none added anything to the roster/team. It counts to JH's wallet, though. Since the new CBO will likely reset the whole lux tax tier and years being over matrix, this seems like the time to not worry about the tax lines. Losing bonus money and dropping draft picks hurts, but I think we can afford to take that future hit, as our farm looks good, and our core of young, controllable and relatively inexpensive players sets us up pretty well for the ext 3-5 years.

AAV is $10.3M x 2 Hicks and $7.75M Duran in '26 and likely more in '27. Maybe we can count those two as $22-23M a year. We might get Suarez for that.

Yes, yes and yes. Vientos is a RHB with more power than Yoshida, and IMO should end up with a higher OPS. Yes, I prefer the prearb Vientos to the $18M x 2 Masa. Baty would be the major plus.

Brez has spent a lot. He chose to spend way more on pitching than offense. I think JH would have let him spend the Suarez or Gray money on a bat, instead. Take away what STL is paying and this is the winter AAV payroll choices: Pitching: $72M $41 Gray ($31M salary) $26 Suarez ($7.5M) $13,3 Chapman ($13M) $1.6M Oviedo ($1.6M) _____________________ Batting: $21.3M $21.3M Contreras ($18M) ____________________ This points to Breslow being the issue more than JH, but I love improving the rotation from the top 3. I like Contreras, but I agree we needed/need more. If the budget is what stops Brez from adding a decent bat at 3B or 2B, then the roster construction choices made by Brez, as in maximizing pitching additions at the expense of bat additions is, IMO, open for criticism and maybe even ridicule.

AL East and fWAR 2025 to Projected 2026: TOR 44.3>48.1 (+3.8) NYY 50.6>47.6 (-3.0) BOS 43.6>45.6 (+2.0) BAL 24.1>45.0 (+20.9) Huh? TBR 31.0> 37.9 (+6.9) Huh?

One other good player besides Suarez, Gray and Contreras? I agree on Schwarber or Alonso- not so much with Bregman. Had we gotten one of those two, we could have used the resources needed to get Contreras to get a 2N/3Bman. I guess we could have kept Willson and DH'd Alonso, too.

I readily admit my bias towards the Sox, and I tend to be more optimistic than many, but I know this team has issues- most glaringly at 3B or 2B and maybe both. I disagree with fangraphs saying our catching will rank 27th in MLB. While Narvaez may regress, he could also improve. I think Wong's injury hurt is projected value, and he will bounce back and make up for any regression by Narvaez. I also think Willson Contreras will love hitting in Fenway, and the Sox ranking of 13th at 1B is a bit off. The 25th ranking for SS could happen. Story's defense has slipped, but he did look better than I expected on offense. He nearly went the whole season without a caught stealing, too. They have us top 7 in all OF slots, so that might make us #1 in overall OF rankings, and our OF depth might be second to none, as well. They have us with the best rotation and SP group. We are ranked 4th in pen value, and we have yet to add anyone, except Watson. I guess some starters will pitch from the pen. To me, we are a decent 3B/2Bman away from a top 5 or 6 team and a big bat (and 2B/3Bman) away from top 3-4 in MLB. Many other teams could make the same claim based on significant improvement at 1 or 2 positions.