moonslav59

I think we may be done with the rotation. We basically swapped out Buehler's $21M/1 deal for Gray at the same cost. I'm confident Gray can beat Gio's 2025 numbers, but it's not a sure bet. Gray is top 5-10 in some key stats, but 30th to 40th in others. If you go back 3 years, which includes his very nice 2023 season, Gray looks like a solid #2, but with 36 year old pitchers, I feel like the last one or one+two seasons matter more. In the stats where more IP matter, Gray jumps many other pitchers who pitched better but maybe gave less value, due to less or much less IP. Most of Gray's numbers went down from '24 to '25, so in a way I'm doing him a favor by choosing the '24-'25 sample size for this break down. 30 Teams x 5 SP'ers = 150 SP'ers. It's pretty sad that you have to lower the IP sample size to about 145 IP over 2 seasons to get to 150 SP'ers to compare and contrast, but here it goes... 5th xFIP 2.95 (14th in FIP at 3.26) 7th SIERA at 3.17 8th K-BB% 23% 14th fWAR 7.4 14th K% 28.4% 18th BB% 5.4% 22- IP 347 73- ERA 4.07 (46th xERA 3.78) T75 to 80th in ERA- at 100 If you group #1s as 1-30th best, Gray is a #1 in all but the last 2 categories. (These are not the most important 10 categories and some kinda duplicate each other.) His ERA and ERA- place him in the #3 group. One could split the difference and call him a #2 based on his 2024-2025 numbers only and not look at age trends or performance trends over the last 3 years. IMO, he's okay as a #2. I had hoped for better, and I think we'd have more money to spend on top batters had we traded for Ryan or Lodolo types, or even Gore, Ragans and Bubic types. We did not use up a lot of trade capital, so if we trade for a big bat like K Marte, then one can see the reasoning in getting Gray not Ryan types.

I don't pretend to know more than sps.com, but I'd go with.... 8>7 Fajardo 7>8 Gonzales 11>20 Sandlin 14>11 Godbout (everyone after Godbout up one, except Holobetz & Travieso ahead of Uberstine and Drohan) 22 Bleis and 23 Cespeded to 32 and 33 and Castro 25 to below 35, so... 22 Azocar 23 Jo Garcia (from 29) 24 Delzine 25 Ramos 26 Rivas 27 Monegro (31) 28 Aita (36) 29. Taylor 30. Cason 31. Heyman

Yes, I saw that. Gray has a lot of hope- certainly more than Buehler, Kluber and Richards combined. I'm okay with the deal, but not if it means skimping on bats.

The only way I'm okay with Gray as our #2, is if we do not skimp on the two big bats we need. I keep hearing "a" big bat. We lost Bregman AND Devers and need to improve on even that! Bringing Bregman back or replacing him with Bichette is a sideways move but would count as one. That still leaves replacing Devers, and to me I see three possibilities: Alonso, Schwarber and K Marte (by trade.) The good thing about the Gray trade is that we still have the trade capital to make a winning offer for KMarte. He has a $19.4M AAV, so that fits in better than Alonso or Schwarber will, and if we add Bichette or bring back Bregman we likely can't afford the other two. So, maybe we sign Bregman or Bichette and trade for K Marte. (I might be okay with Polanco, but he'd have to play 3B.) 1. L Anthony 2. S K Marte 3. R Bergman/Bichette 4. L Duran (DH?) 5. R Story 7. L Casas/R Romy 1B 8. R Narvaez 9. R Rafaela (Assuming Mayer plus others for K Marte.)

Found this by google... The agreement was reached on April 15, 2011, and was formally announced shortly after. The timing was partly to avoid a higher luxury tax for the current season, as the new average annual value would not apply for 2011.

I'm okay with the deal within a context, so that's a big BUT. Had we traded for Ryan or Lodolo, we'd have need to give up way more, but their salaries are much lower, thereby leaving money for 2 big bats. Unless we get 2 big bats, the signing might look like a big BUTT!

I was looking at the first tax line. Yes, we had a lot coming off, but we extended Crochet, Anthony and Campbell. Others got some slight raises. The good thing is no big arb raises.

Very true, and one key factor is that the whole bottom can fall out, if there is a sharp decline or injury that lessens the innings. The quality of those innings going forward matters. Gray was 3rd in ERA- in 2023 and 35th in 2024, then 40th in 2025. That's a scary trend for a 36 year old. Yes, he still had some decent side numbers that give us promise and hope, but once again, we've added a question mark at about the same money Buehler got, last year. That being said, I'd prefer Gray over Buehler- pre2025. 2023-2024 7th in FIP (3rd in xFIP) and 26th in ERA ay 4.07 His ERA- is 100 (dead average) 26th out of 37 qualifiers. (38th out of 54 with 300+ IP and 68th out of 114 with 200+ IP, Bello is at 93 & Houck 97, despite his awful '25 numbers) 5th in K-BB%

es, there is that route, too, but I recall they held off the AGon extention, until early April to avoid the tax.

It's gonna come down to JH & the winter budget. We've already spent a big chunk and probably still need a #2 SP or a co-#3 with Gray. Sure, Gray or even Bello, Early, Sandoval or someone else may step into a 2-3 role, but counting on it is dreaming. Using more trade capital and financial costs for someone like Alcantara or M Keller would mean the budget will have to be super high to also be able to fill our two big bat needs. There are many different ways to build a winning team, and supersizing the rotation would take some heat off the need for 2 big bats, but we'd still need one, at least. I read somewhere that Merrill Kelly could have given us what Gray will, at near the same contract cost. I'm not so sure, but some big questions remain about this upcoming winter.

That was one of the darkest times as a Sox fan. Fisk, Lynn, Burleson, Lee, Tiant and on and on...

I do agree the Sox felt Harrison was the prize.

soxprospects.com updated their rankings: https://soxprospects.com/history.htm Biggest Jumps from April 13>1 Tolle 18>8 Clarke (traded) 19>9 Gonzales 10>3 Early 14>6 Jh Garcia 17>11 Soto --->17 Uberstine --->18 Drohan n/a>5 Witherspoon n/a> 10 Fajardo n/a> 13 Phillips, 14 Eyanson, 15 Godbout, 19 Holobetz, 20 Travieso n/a> 25 Azocar, 28 Ramos, 29 Rivas 5>2 Arias 28>22 Mullins 29>27 Delzine ______________________ Biggest Declines: 21>--- D Reyes, 22>--- C Cason, 24>---Wehunt, 26>---Taylor 27>---Monegro 9>24 Cespedes 6>16 Romero 15>23 Bleis 8>12 Sandlin 16>21 Paez 25>26 Castro (The man cannot die w sp.com.) 4>4 Perales 7>7 Valera 30>30 Jo Garcia _______________________ Graduated: 1. Anthony 2. Campbell 3. Mayer 11. Fitts (traded) 12. Dobbins 20. Narvaez 23. Guerrero (traded)

They often miss the mark, even on the top FAs. I'll be surprised if we get any big FA, so trying to pick the one from many is a longshot.

Yes, so if the $10M counts on the 2026 tax line, then we shouldn.t be charges $30M for 2027. It should be $20M (30-10.) Do they adjust it depending on whether the option is taken of not?

If our winter budget was $40-45M, the $21M spent on Gray is about half. It would also mean no Alonso, Bregma or Bichette, among others. KMarte's AAV is $19.4M, so we could afford him. If Duran is part of the deal, then minus $7.7M. Maybe the play is to go to the second line or beyond. Chances are there will be a reset after the new CBA. I like Gray, but he's not the best #2 I had in mind and may be more like a 3. They money still seems high, when the budget is likely tight.

Yeah, I think I got that wrong. So, if he get's the 2027 option, do they subtract the $10M?

I'd go Mayer at 3B vs RHPs. Polanco at 2B FT. I'm okay with Romy at 3B for 30% of all starts. Mayer can come in to PH or as a defensive replacement, if needed. Without Alonso at 1B, I'm not sure Polanco gets it done, in terms of adding offense to replace Bregman. Alonso needs to replace the lost Devers offense to get us better than 2025.

Unless JH agrees to open his wallet wide- yea sure!- I say no. We need every penny to get two big bats,

Is the rule still that if you wait until the season starts, the extension does not count on the lux tax, that year?

It's made out of rubber.

I thought Lux tax counted the buyout with 2nd year only. So, $31M for 2026 + $10M buyout= $41M/2 Minus $20M paid by STL $21M/2 or $10.5M on tax line for 2026 and 2027. (If we don't buy him out, his 2027 number goes up.)

With the $20M included on the $41M/1 deal for Gray, that takes $21M from the winter spending budget.

Ryan 3.71/3.4 Lopez 3.69/3.2 Alcantara 4.01/2.5 M Kelly 4.10/2.5 Lodolo 4.04/2.4 M Keller 4.15/2.3

I'm ignorant of prospect values on other teams. I trust you know better. I'd still do this trade, even with Gray onboard. Bello would be our #4! 1. Crochet 2. Gray 3. Lodolo 4. Bello 5. Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Harrison, Early, Tolle, Perales A switch hitting power bat that finally fixes our decade long hole at 2B. Do it! Add Alonso and I'm on cloud 9.