moonslav59

Okay. I thought your point was that the Breggie signing was the mistake.

If TOR adds Tucker, that would be huge, but if they lose Bichette, Bassitt, Scherzer and some lesser players, I'm not so sure they will be significantly better. They seem like an up and down team to me. The Yanks and Mariners scare me more, and both may make some gains this winter. We know NYY gets Cole back.

While I agree, there may be some maniac spender in a smaller market size than us, so it's not always such a clear delineation. I will agree that top 6 seems reasonable, as there was a significant drop from #5 TOR ($255M) and #6 HOU ($232M,) and the 7 through 12 teams were all between #12 $203M (BOS) and #7 TEX at $226M. We're talking $23M to go from 12 to 7. The #6 team (HOU) is saying they want to get under the tax line, and TEX is #7, so it seems doable to get to #6, if no other teams goes absolutely nutty. The drop from 4 to 5 was about $37M, so I doubt we jump to #4 anytime soon. We can spend more has been the mantra here for years. No doubt we can.

CT has some Sox lairs, too.

I think they decided after the Sale & Nate, which was 2019, that they were not going to spend for a while. Maybe they convinced themselves they could still stay "competitive enough," but once they dumped Betts and half-Price, they must have know no rings were forthcoming. The 2021 season gave them cover. It was hard to argue we were no longer competitive, and they ran with that while making some strategic moderate "buys" just when the fanbase seemed about to revolt. If you look at the Sox spending trends under JH, you sill see several downturns in spending, but most did not last long. We seemed to be cycling our spending when ring seasons seemed more probable. 2013 was an outlier, as we cut spending and still won. 2019 was somewhat of an illusion as spending went up (Sale + nate deals) but we failed to return Kimbrel and Kelly and the roster was worse. When you factor in inflation we have had a very long downturn and are still way behind our 2019 budget total. The actual total budget is higher than 2015, and the end of year budget in 2025 was slightly higher than 2016 and 2017, but that is no defense for JH. Here are the years the Sox went over the lux tax line: 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007 under for 2 years 2010 & 2011 under for 3 years 2015 & 2016 under for 1 2018 & 2019 under for 2 2022 (over by 1.2 M- a mistake?) under for 2 2025 (not over by much) This shows a shift in "trends." If we go over in 2025, it will be the first time back-to-back in 6 years. There have been some ups and downs along these last 6 years- most significant from 2021 to 2022 (Story signing) and from 2024 to 2025 (several signings and the Devers extension.) I know I have used the phrase "make or break" for JH a few times, in recent winters, and the big jump in spending last winter was an encouraging sign, but now that Devers was dumped and Bregman & Gio opted out, we are back in that familiar place again- wondering what JH will do. The long extensions to young stars over the past 2+ seasons is nice, but we need to do better than last winter. To me, it's time for at least one large and long contract, and I'm not talking Trevor Story or Yoshida levels. We can't stop there. While one L & L deal is essential, we need to find a way to add at least 2 more significant players- somehow/someway. The Sox are on the clock.

One may be more important than the other, but both are such high needs that we might as well call it a tie. We also need a 3rd major add. Big Bopper (1B, 3B/2B) SP2 3B/2B or 1B (see #1)

With so many teams in need of Of'ers the talk has been almost all about us trading an OF'er, but what about the fact that many teams are dying for starting pitchers- even #4's or #5's. That is another area we are pretty deep. We have a #1 (Crochet) and a decent #3 (Bello,) but the amount of #4's to #6's is rather amazing. Adding one or two to a trade package could be what gives us the edge over other teams who cannot spare a pitcher. Sandoval, Crawford, Harrison, Dobbins, Fitts, Criswell Tolle, Early, Perales, Uberstine, Drohan, Anderson, Sandlin I don't think you get good return value on lower level prospects, but we have our fair share of them, too: Holobetz, Clarke, Paez, Fajardo, Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson Aita, Travieso, Monegro, Mullins, J Bello, Morgan, Tygart, Brown, Rivera

Not much else to talk about. I kinda like Romy, but I hope we don't count on him as a FT'er, next season, just because he happened to hit .718 v RHPs. He is a damn good back-up or platoon bat.

Well, we have a poster obsessed with bringing Sale back, so it must be contagious.

How is signing the best player left mistreating the worst defensive 3Bman in MLB? Sure, they handled the communication badly, but the signing was perfectly fine. If Devers is afraid of other good players on the team, then he's the issue. (Note: I don't think he was or is. He just hated how they handled it. So did I.)

It's not even close to a normal platoon. The norm would be 29% v LHPs. I guess 13% fro the norm is technically disproportionate, but IMO, it's not that far off. Hardly anyone is 71-29. Most short-side platoons bat more than 50% v L.

There are many pitchers with one year left on their deals. Also, Sandoval is gone after 2026.

Nobody really jumped out at me from all the announced non tenders, today. Anybody see a possible match?

Casas was apparently 100% to start the 2025 season. Had we figured out Romy would hit .718 vs RHPs, we might have played him there earlier and more often.

Not so much. 198 PAs vs RHPs 143 PAs vs LHPs That is more vs LHPs than a FT'er gets percentage wise, but Romy started 38 vs R and 38 v L.

Agreed. If we get 2 out of these three, many will be happy. I would not see 2 out of 3 as an improvement, even if we add a couple decent 3rd or 4th additions (like Hoskins, Matz, Ref, J Bell...)

Good rundown, here. It's hard to compare their defense, and if Bichette plays 2B for us, we may see he's about the same as Marte. Here is what tips me to K Marte, despite the age difference: POWER! 2023-2025: KMarte: .236 ISO and 35 HRs per 162, .519 SLG (.887 OPS) .251 ISO '24-'25 Bichette: .154 ISO and 19 Hrs per 162, .445 SLG (.778 OPS) .146 ISO '24-'25 Now, if we get Alosno or Schwarber, I'd be fine with the secondary piece to be Bichette (or Bregman) The second big tip to KMarte is his $19.4M lux tax line on the budget. Bichette, Bregman, Alonso and Schwarber will make much more AAV. Granted, they won't cost players/prospects to get, but I want one from KMarte, Alonso or Schwarber.

No news is not usually good news with baseball injuries. I still think if he's healthy, he'll have an inside track at the 4 slot and easily the 5 slot, bit that is a big "if."

It's hard to win when your DH AND 1B positions are devoid of power. While our 1B+DH's combined for 42 HRs, 15 were from Devers.

I'm not concerned so much about what other teams are spending. I'm worried the yanks get Cole back and will make additions this winter. I think we can get what we need by trading and spending. It's possible to do this without making major jumps in the spending rankings, but it might take just that. Trade for K Marte and a #2 SP. Sign Alonso or Schwarber plus another significant player. We might get to the second tax line and still be far behind NYY, but I'd be fine.

You wanna DH Duran?

Back to the thread title: YES! WE HAVE TO TRADE AN OUTFIELDER!

Marte would be a hige get, and I think we can offer more than most teams- either in prospects or controlled talent. We gotta try. Joe Ryan or Lodolo would be nice gets. We should be able to make two bold trades without breaking the future. We can't do just this and sit back. We'll need a major signing or two with the 2 big trades, IMO. I doubt we do it, but we can and should.

I'm beginning to think our best hopes for a solid #2 SP'er AND a big bat are through trades- two of them. I think we need to go all in on Ketel Marte. His ISO and SLG numbers are right up there with Schwarber and Alonso. While I hate the idea of trading away several 3-5 controlled year players to get Marte and maybe Ryan, I think we'd have enough young players and top prospects left over to keep the window open for 5 years.