moonslav59

I recall a certain poster who was not so high on Ref a couple years ago- or so.

Yes, I remember well. I just find it hard to believe the Sox were that dumb to either bet he would not be selected or not try and trade him for the best prospect offered. There is ample evidence they were that dumb, so maybe I just need to accept this as further evidence in their dumbdomness.

There is another major reason, too.

As much as I think we have enough trade capital to pull off two big trades (like option A) and still have a deep enough 40 and farm, I do not think Brez & Co. sees it that way. My gut says these guys are not gonna spend big bucks on a top batter or pitcher, so I hope to hell we make two trades. It's not like K Marte makes peanuts, but his AAV is $19.4. That's a lot lower than Bichette or Bregman will be. Marte is 32 and has 5 years left on his contract, so that might be the thing that stops that deal from going down- from the Sox side. If we could get them to take Hicks, I'd add extra value in players. If the deal is Duran, I'm not sure he what AZ wants, and likely MN does not want him, so we'd need a third team involved. BTV says Duran for Lodolo is a big overpay, but I'd probably do it. Again, Duran + Hicks for Lodolo works for BTV but almost certainly not the budget-minded Reds. Polanco is also 32, but may not demand a 5 year deal. He may even go for a 1 year mega AAV deal, so he can get a longer deal after a great 2026 season. That's a big bet on himself. I do agree that guys like Polanco and maybe Suarez are on the Sox radar due to their likelihood of taking shorter deals than Bregman, Alonso & Bichette. Most likely winter outcome? It's hard to know where the budget will be set, but I'll go with... Alcantara, Polanco, D Williams and Hoskins. (Maybe Suarez instead of Hoskins, if JH coughs up more cash. Maybe no DW if we get Suarez.)

Cora sheds a little light... https://bleacherreport.com/articles/25302331-red-soxs-cora-has-no-regrets-about-rafael-devers-trade-team-needed-make-deal

I think we can all agree on this.

I hope not, but I think there is a significant chance we make that deal.

Keeping Duran does not improve us against LHPs- he might make us worse. Do you agree that Duran is worth more to a team like the Phillies as an OF'er than to anyone, including us as a DH? Please answer. That is the reason he gets traded, (If he's not traded, it will be because Abreu is, and now he plays OF not DH.)

Where did I say Ryan is not better and doesn't rate to be better in 2026? I said he may not do all that much better than Gio's 2025 numbers and that it would not be a big enough improvement to jump us up a level, unless we also jump up our offense. Ryan was better in 2025 and should be way better in 2026. Nobody has suggested we trade for RYan more than I have.

And even Manny was dealt before his deal finished. (He came closer than others.) $217/7 Price 2016 -lasted 4 seasons (traded) $160M/8 Manny 2001- lasted 7.5 years (traded) $142M/7 Crawford 2011-lasted 2 seasons (traded then 4 w LAD then gone) $140M/6 Story 2022- TBD on lasting $120M/3 Bregman 2025 -opted out $110M/5 JD 2018- LASTED WHOLE TERM $95M/5 Sandoval 2015- lasted 2.5 years (DFA'd) $88M/4 HRam 2015- lasted 3.5 years (DFA'd) $83M/5 Lackey 2010- lasted 4.5 years (traded) $70M/5 JD Drew 2007- LASTED WHOLE TERM (retired) $68M/4 Nate 2019- LASTED WHOLE TERM $40M/4 Renteria 2005- lasted 1 year (traded) Hitch is right: it goes back long before Price and even to Manny, who came before JH & Co. This list is scary enough to see why JH has his doubts about long term deals, and unless we can start having a better record of outcomes with these types of signings, maybe we will continue not seeing too many of them. I hope not! Even if you look at our shorter/high AAV deals, our recent success has not been any better: Breggie worked out fine, despite missing time. Buehler was a $21M bust (highest AAV given to a FA pitcher since Price.) There were Kluber, Richards and others who were not real high AAVs. We did have some successes, like with Beltre.

So, every first player taken in Rule 5 could have been traded?

If we got forward on offense by a major leep, going backwards from horrible at 1B to slightly more horrible is not going to hurt our chances. Schwarber would still DH some and eventually would move there FT, once Masa is gone.

The Crawford-Beckett and others trade helped pave the way for 2013.

If he can hit .676 v LHPs, he'd be FT on more than half the teams in MLB. It's a big if, but he's at the age where many ex-platoon players go FT, and his defense, like Duran's speed is likely enough to add enough value. Hell, we play Rafaela FT and his splits vs RHPs and LHPs are barely better than .676. Abreu is a damn good fielder and has a good arm for Fenway's big RF. His DRS would blow others away, if he had more innings. Same with OAA. The GG was deserved.

Maybe we could have traded him for Penrod.

It's weird how the Devon Williams thread has taken on a life of its own.

to me #2SP (more like a one than a three) and a big bopper are top priorities. a second big bat may be enough to put us over the top.

Fire BREZ!

To replace him will likely take a longer deal, and it won't be cheap, either. When you factor in already needing a big bat to replace Devers, I'm not sure JH will approve of two big deals. That's one reason I have suggested a trade for K Marte, but who knows if it's even possible or what they'd demand.

Usually, it's not a good thing not knowing who your last 3 SP'ers will be. Hopefully we add a Joe Ryan type and need just 2 slots filled. This situation is unique, IMO, because I trust we can find 2 more-than-capable SP'ers from our depth to fill the 4-5 slots. I would not be surprised, at all, if our 4-5-6 starters are among the top 5 in MLB, next year.

I'm not expecting Bregman to have even the same numbers at 2025. His prior 3-4 year trend means more to me, and it scares me. That was one reason I was fine with the short but high AAV deal given him, and was not upset when he opted out. I'd love to get Ryan and think he is likely to get better. I just raised the point about his end of season decline, because others seem to be worried about it. I'm a little concerned but want to get him. I was concerned about Crochet, too, but was 100% for getting him.

Yes. My guess is Fitts and Criswell begin in the pen. I also think we trade 1 SP'er- maybe 2 in the package(s) for a #2SP and or someone like K Marte. Duran & Crawford for K Marte? Campbell, Harrison & Sandlin for Ryan? 2 log jams cleared up.

Agreed. My mention of Kelly would be if we go mega on 2 big bats and JH insists on a short term contract. A trade for Ryan and a Kelly signing would be nice, but not if it prevents that second big bat we need.

Not to mention Bello's 2026 vs 2025. He was a clear second in SP'er IP (162) and had a 3.34 ERA. True, replacing Buehler should be easy (110 IP and 5.40 ERA) as well as Houck (8.04 in 44 IP.) Those two started 31 games. Replacing them with more from Early (2.33) Harrison (4.00) Dobbins (4.25) Crawford (n/a) and Sandoval (n/a) could be the boost we need, but we all know someone else will get hurt. We also lose some other spot starters like May (5.68) Newcomb (4.43) and maybe less from Fitts (4.83) as a SP'er, but every year I point out all the "additions by subtractions" it never works out that way. The only way I'm okay with adding just one SP'er is if it is a solid #1/2 type like Ryan, Lodolo or better, AND we add 2 big bats. (One bat can be a sideways move like keeping Bregman or signing Bichette instead.) I like out SP'er depth and am confident we can find 3 capable rotation guys for the 3-5 slots from: Sandoval, Crawford, Dobbins, Fitts & Harrison Early, Tolle & Perales Emergency depth: Criswell, Uberstine, Drohan or a jump from AA by Clarke, Holobetz, Rivera, Paez or Wehunt/Rogers.

True, and they both dropped off near the end. Do you think bringing Bregman back and replacing Gio with Ryan, with not other significant additions is enough to jump us up a level?