moonslav59

Don't want to get political, but that's what we were trying to do, until...

Why? He had one good year after his control years ended, then meh. I'm glad we never extended him, unless we traded him right after 2023.

For sure. The dip from a 8+ bWAR in 2023 to 4.6>4.9>4.1 is noticeable, but e's still really good and better than Bogey. Bogey's best SDP season was year one (2023) at 4.2, then 1.2>2.1>2.2.

We are talking about some nearmiss trades that would have sent Tolle packing.

Okay. At the AA-AAA level, who besides Mullins should be moved to the pen in 2027? sp.com projected rotations: (Houck and Oviedo in MLB pen) AAA: Crawford, Paez, Wehunt, Holobetz, Ziehl (They have Mullins in the pen) AA: Monegro, Futrell, Brown, Phillips, Bouchard & McSweeney FYI: A+ J Bello, Gilman, Morgan, Mayers, Finley, Foutch (podcast mentioned Morgan and Mayers to pen)

It's scary to think Brez was willing to trade Arias and Tolle for Ryan or even just Tolle & Early for Marte. People complain about the deals not made, but maybe we should be more careful what we wish for.

Questioning and having doubts is not the same as saying I know it's not true. I'm not having it both ways. I don't live in a black and white world. I still have doubts it's true, because it sounds too extreme, but saying that is not even saying it's 50-50 true/false. Having doubts can be based on a 1-1o% chance it's untrue.

Exactly. The podcast on SP.com mentioned Monegro & Morgan, too. They said we seem to stick with these guys who maybe have a 1-2% chance as a starter until their clock runs out. Teams like the Indians move pitching prospects to the pen and develop many good ones that slide right into MLB pen roles.

Latest soxprospects.com podcast: https://news.soxprospects.com/2026/10/podcast-ep-432-taking-stock.html Some points of note: On the playoffs: missing our #3 and #4 leverage pen guys, and could not use Whitlock and Chapman for all 3 games, why not stick with the rotation that got us there? Of course, "We need hitting." We should have handed Sogard the IKF role on opening day and saved $6M. Durbin should bat 7-8-9 or be a top utility man. Rafaela & Story should never bat higher than 7-8-9. Abreu should bat 6th. (5th if the pitching & defense are top and we use them.) Mead is a total unknown & should DH. Duran should not have been the wire-to-wire starter and there was no discussion of taking him out. They had a couple legit offers from him and the last two years. We were lucky the Twins said no to Tolle & Arias. We shoulda signed Fried instead of trading for and extending Crochet. Some hindsight talk about how Hicks and Sandlin are pitching leverage innings for the CWS, and it was a salary dump trade. Wong is no longer worth keeping as C#2. Monasterio is AAA and would be DFA'd when out of options. Mead should DH. Jones could platoon at DH, but did poorly at the end of the season. Eaton is AAA and out of options- "will be DFA'd." Brez will make some trades to clear up roster slots. Bastardo and Castro are minor league FAs and are part of the end of season choice needed to be made. We had a lot of unsustainable players all get hot during that 37 game streak. We lose Gray, IKF and Sandoval. No way Gray takes $30M, with the $10M buyout. Everyone else comes back. Bello will be the #5 with Houck, Oviedo and Crawford as the depth. They all look healthy. Crawford will likely start in AAA on opening day. Oviedo is out of options due to 5 yrs. He will likely be in the pen, if nobody is injured. Rotation looks fine, but with not top pitching prospects looking even close to a mid rotation starter in the next 3-4 years. The top 5 RP'ers look good, but all have questions, and Whitlock wants to start, again. We need to get one more good pen arm, but we probably won't. We need to be more aggressive moving farm arms to the pen earlier. The last good pen arms from the system were Barnes and Workman. They run out the clock on these guys who are still starters- like Mullins (2nd Rule 5 year.) "Monegro is not a starter." Mayers and Morgan, too.They just don't believe in developing RP'ers since covid. We shoulda kept Hoppe over 2-3 of the guys we kept. Carrying so many injured guys forced these choices. Moran didnt make playoff roster, so what is his worth? This roster is just not worth the salary. Yes, Yoshida and Story eat a lot, but IKF, Campbell, Sandoval and others are wasted. We are at $216M pre arb adds, which will bring us to neat $270M, and the Duran choice seems like they will keep him. (Yuck!) We must extend AR, but the situation is typical Sox. We have to extend him to make the trade worth it. We need to add a defensive catcher to replace Wong (save $2M arb.) Trade Duran for a prospect (save $8-9M.) ow will Story andle the Arias situation. If there is a lockout, Arias will be playing and sharp. Play Story at 2B or trade him. Mead would DH or play 1B when Willson leaves. We can't count on Arias to do well on offense out of the gate. They mentioned that if there is a floor enacted, maybe some team takes Story or Yoshida with a prospect to meet the requirements. Trade Story, move Durbin to 2B and sign Sato from Japan? e might be the best offensive player on the market. Rafaela is fine in CF, but only if he bast 7-8-9. Abreu could be traded, but then we'd need a RF'er. Anthony in RF or sign Suzuki? Being creative in the OF might be the best idea, they think. Some talk has been to just trade Anthony, but they don'tt hink it makes sense. Getting hurt just swinging the bat is very worrisome, and it's not just him with these sorts of injuries. Bold action is needed, so maybe trading Rafaela or Abreu is the best we can do. They both still like Tracy as the 2027 manager.

sp.com had this to say about a young prospect few of us have talked about... Outfield: Joskairo Ramirez After signing for $800,000 in January, Ramirez was Boston's breakout star in the Dominican Summer League as he was named the organization's Latin Program Position Player of the Year. In 45 games, Ramirez slashed .320/.443/.553 with five home runs, 14 doubles, and nine stolen bases. The 17-year-old Ramirez is ranked as the No. 47 prospect in the system. He's far away, but still...

Good points. Some of these current SP'ers may make it as decent pen adds, but almost all our current pitching is from trades. Tolle and remnants from past GMs, like Houck and Crawford are about it.

Man, how long ago was the Mookie trade? 7 years! Wow. He put up some nice years for the Dodgers and turns 34, soon. I sure we had found a way to keep him, even if it meant saying good bye to Sale or Nate plus maybe trading away JD. At this point in time, Betts may be looking more and more like Bogey. He has a .753 OPS from 2025-2026 (ages 32-33) and that's better than Bogey, but his expectations were higher, too. BTW, that .753 is still a 108 OPS+ and his defense and flexibility on D is a big plus. Betts is still owed: ages 34-39 27:$25M, 28:$30M, 29:$30M, 30:$30M, 31:$27.5M, 32:$27.5M

I never said it wasn't "most likely legit." It does sound truthful. I have less doubts about these reports than many other rando reports, but I still have some doubts. To me, it seems absurd to have Tolle and Early on the table and walk away because Mayer would not be added. Tolle or Early, yes, but not both and certainly not all three.

What scares me is the Brez might view the Mead and AR mis summer deals as the line-up improvement he needed, and the box is already checked. The Mead injury prevented us from seeing the results immediately, but he sees the results as coming into fruition in 2027. While I happen to believe Mead will be a real good to great batter, we are going to need more than a big year from him. I'm also not so certain AR will ever be even close to the batter he was 3-4 years ago. IMO, we don't really need much more than .750 to realize a major gain in our catching production on offense. (He's also real good on D, which matters more to me at C and SS.) We've had a catcher OPS of .688 since 2020 and worse (.669) since 2024. If AR can bat .769, we gain 100 Points, which is no different than upgrading a .710 Durbin to an .810 new 3Bman. The reason I am high on Mead is that his nice half season was not like Grissom's out of the gate rookie year, or KC's couple good weeks in early April. He was (is) 25 and was a force, this year. I've been wrong before, and could be here, but I really like these two additions and see them as essential pieces to the 2027 line-up and roster. We do need at least one more upgrade, and we should not rely on a big comeback from Anthony, although it could happen. We can't rely on Duran returning to 2024 (or even 2025,) Story to 2025, or Yoshida to his career OP over 150 games. Doing so would be asking for a repeat. We've had some debates about what position is best for an upgrade, and even a side debate one whether positions even matter. To me, we have so many players that can play a few positions, we can basically add anywhere except starting catcher, and make anyone fit. On paper, our weakest offensive positions look like LF (Anthony to DH) DH (Anthony to LF) SS and 2B (Mead to DH.) SS: I seriously doubt we trade for a SS, unless we include Arias in the deal. I hope to God they don't even think about Story as anything more than SS depth. No, Monasterio, Cheng & Sogard are not wire-to-wire options even as platoons. They are okay depth. 2B: Mead may not be very good at 2B defense, so maybe he'll DH, but I think we get more bnag for the buch with him at 2B. (Signing BLowe and having Mead DH and Anthony in LF would be fine with me, though.) This guy from Japan, Soto, looks like the real deal, but he plays 3B. I wonder if we can sign him and move him to 2B or play Durbin at 2B and Mead to DH. Soto would likely fill our big bat need. LF/DH: We will be counting on Anthony to fill one slot- dependable or not. It would be nice to know they fixed his hand by March. Suzuki looks like the best FA option in LF, but who thinks we will outbid the top bidders? I'd rather we pass on Arozarena, but he is an upgrade over Duran (LF) and Yoshida, maybe barely (DH.) I might rather have a Yoshida-Jones or Gasper-Romy DH platoon than Arozarena in LF and Anthony at DH. What else is out there? Ant trade would involve Arias and or Justin Gonzales plus maybe more. We can make some minor tweaks by trading from our middle infield depth and one of our out-of-options RHB OF'ers (Jones or White) but none are bringing us anything significant. Trading Primera seems foolish. Trading the upside of Valera seems too risky, and he does not have much return value, now anyway. Godbout has not reached major trade value, yet, but could be someone who makes trading Arias for a 2-3 year mega SS more acceptable. Delzine & Soto are too far away to carry much trade value - the recent draftees, as well. The most likely trade idea might be this: we trade a current starter, add a mid tier prospect or two- or a good one for a major upgrade, and try to get a significant improvement at one position. With some flex players, we don't necessarily have to trade someone like Mead + prospects for a 2Bman: we could add a SS or LF'er and go with Story/Sogard/Seigler/Romy at 2B, but the gain in LF has to be more than the loss at 2B, or it's not worth it. Trade Durbin and Arias for a megastar/mega bat SS, then sign Soto? Trade Abreu and Godbout for a SS and sign Suzuki? Maybe this way is the option we choose?

I question almost every report I read and for obvious reasons: tey are often wrong. Of course they over-valued Mayer. My questioning the report is unrelated. Same with Duran and others. They've undervalued some, too. Such is baseball.

Exactly, yet nobody talks about it. I remember calling it one of the top 5 or 10 trades in Red Sox history, at the time- not for the return but for the addition by subtraction. Even I did not forsee the money saved bring us the 2013 ring with guys like Victorino & Napoli.

The Price aspect is often overlooked. For some reason, we were fine dumping AGon, knowing we got rid of CC's deal (Beckett's was kind of a push.) It's amazing how much salary the Dodgers have taken off our hands. How about Yoshida, Duran and Story for Wil's grandma?

By some stroke of luck, let's say we are able to trade Story, Yoshida and Duran and save about $18 from their expected salaries. That would be a short term gain, but with Yoshida and Story's deals ending after 2027, one could see the opening for a major long term signing. (Bigger than Suarez.) For arguments sake, let's say we sign Suzuki, but maybe we go after Sato, instead. Wishing for both is nice but fantasy. The question then becomes is it enough? Would there be enough money left to sign Gray, Nick Martinez or Morejon. I guess if we have enough for one of them, maybe there would be enough to sign 2 from this: Sato or BLowe Suzuki or Arozaena No major pitching added 1. L Anthony DH 2. R Suzuki LF 3. L Lowe 2B 4. R Contreras 1B 5. L Abreu RF 6, R Mead 3B 7. S Rutschman C 8. R Rafaela CF 9. R Arias SS Bench: Durbin, Sogard, Wong, Gasper

True- same with Babe Ruth. The Fisk fiasco was horrible, but at least we got value for Lynn, Burly and a few others. To me, the choice was on JH. The near miss trade by DD in 2019 supports the notion. I do wonder what DD might have gotten. It's shocking the only known offers were the Dodgers and Padres. Both bad.

When you see 2B/1B, you gotta wonder about 2B defense. BR has him at -0.4 dWAR in 240 games. DRS: 2B: +3 (last 2 years in just 135 innings) and -3 in first 190 innings 1B: -3 in 411 innings (got worse in 2026) 3B: -4 in 864 innings OAA career: 0 at 2B 4 at 3B -6 at 1B That's likely better than Grissom... LOL

Shoulda got more, but where were all the offers?

I fully agree and am concerned, but think of the possible lack of need for a SP'er for 4-5+ years. We didn't have that 3 years ago or even ever. (Clemens, Hurst and Ojeda were just 3.) 2023's rotation: Sale 1 yr $27M w option Houck still being yanked between RP/SP & before nice '24 season (pre-arb) Kluber 1 yr $10M Pivetta 2 arb yrs left Paxton 1 yr Crawford & Bello unsigned/pre-arb NOV '23 Rankings 1, Anthony 2. Mayer 3. Teel 4 Rafaela 5 Bleis 6 Yorke 7. Perales 8 Abreu 9 Wikelman 10 Cespedes 15 Drohan, 20 Monegro, 23 Dobbins, 24 E R-C, 26 Bastardo, 27 Mata Now, 1-2 years ago our farm pitching was better, but many were obtained by Brez, some graduated, and some were traded for better pitchers like Crochet, Bennett and Gray. We all know we will have injuries, so having 5 solid SP'ers under control for 4-6 years is no guarantee, but it should lessen the need for pitching prospects in teh near future, anyway. 6 yrs: Bennett (25 years old) 5 yrs: Crochet (27) & Tolle (23) 4 yrs: Suarez (30) +mutual option 4 yrs: Bello (27) (2: Crawford and 1: Houck & Oviedo) Current Ranked Prospects: 4 Valera (ETA 2029) 6 Delzine (2029) 20 Brown (2029) 15 Phillips 2028, 24 Monegro 2028, 30 LaFavor 2030 Morgan, Futrell, Finley, Mayers & others. MLB Ready or near ready: 9 Holobetz, 13 Wehunt, 16 Paez. 21 Ziehl, 18 Bastardo, 23 Mullins, 24 Rivera

Makes sense. Let's give KC some more time, but certainly, it looks awful, now.

It looks like Suzuki might be the best fit, but many teams will be bidding on him, and we know how that always works out. If somehow a miracle happens, we'd almost certainly trade or non tender Duran. That would essentially knock off about $8M from the cost, for year 1 and maybe 2. Suzuki had his best bWAR (5.1) season of his career at age 31. (7.7 for last 2 years and 7.2 fWAR.) He's averaged about 30 HRs per 650 in the last 2 years combined. We could probably use a LHB more, but we can't be too choosy. B Lowe is a LHB with 30 HR power, but Ks even more than Suzuki and apparently isn't good fit for Fenway. Arozarena might be the consolation prize, is 31 and a RHB. (25 HRs per 650.) Is Teruaki Sato (3B/OF) and option? He's just 27 & a LHB. He's hit 79 HRs in the past 2 seasons (1200 PAs) Also, 81 2B+3B. Maybe we can find another Contreras type via trade, but who?

You missed the part about "day one." Nobody projects #1 prospects to be studs in year one, even if healthy.