moonslav59

LOL Like lets boycott gasoline.

Yes, but changes were going on all through the 2000's and 2010's, but winning made it okay.

I think winning a ring erases some of that feeling, though, but I get your feelings.

This is not a unique business. Look at the record profits from oil companies, right now. Why don't they give back some to consumers? It's unrealistic to ask companies to minimize profits.

Best fWAR pitching seasons since 2024: 5.7 Crochet 2025 4.1 Tolle 2026 4.1 Suarez 2025 3.8 Houck 2024 3.8 Gray 2024 (5.4 in 2023) 2.3 Bennett (2/3 season) 1.9 Bello 2024 1.8 Crawford 2024 0.2 Oviedo (1.8 in 2023) RP 2..6 Chapman 2025 2.2 Whitlock 2025 1.5 Slaten 2024 1.0 Guerrero 2026 0.7 Weissert 2025 0.5 Gamboa 2026 (fraction of a season)

Here is a list of the best seasons since 2024 by our current players: fWAR Player (OPS) 6.9 Duran 2024 .834 4.1 Rafaela 2026 ,761 4.0 Contreras 2026 .901 3.6 Abreu 2025 .786 3.2 Story 2025 .733 3.1 Durbin 2026- .710 (.721 in '25) 3.0 Rutschman 2026 (5.6 in '23 and '24) 2.8 Anthony 2025 (1/2 season) .859 1.5 Mead 2026 (1/2 season)- .851 If you double Anthony and Mead's best seasons, we'd have 9 players with a 3.0+ fWAR season. This is not all that much speculation: we have 7 players with 3.0 proven and 2 who have projected to 3 or more. Others: 1.5 Romy 2025 ,826 1.2 Sogard 2026 (1/3 season) .727 (Could be over 3 with 650 PAs) 1.2 Wong 2024 .758 0.9 Yoshida 2024 .765 0.8 Gasper 2026 (1/3 season) .823 0.7 Casas 2024 (1/3 season) .800 0.4 Seigler 2026 (1/4 season) .758

3 major reasons to get to yes... 1. We need a 30+ HR bat. 2. We need a LHB more than a RHB. 3. 2 positional slots near the top of the upgrade list are LF/DH and 2B/DH: BLowe can fill either one. (Mead or Anthony can DH, and BLowe offers some flex on both or just one.) I get the age 32 issue. I totally get the "back end" decline aspect of these signings. There are risks and downsides. There are risks and downsides to signing players with no MLB experience, too. Different risks but still risks.

Don't think for a minute any saving the owners get will go back to the fans.

What a change from last November's top prospects rankings list: 1. Tolle- graduated 2. Arias (now #1) 3. Early -graduated & traded 4. Perales- traded 5. Witherspoon- #3 when traded 6. Jh Garcia- traded (Azocar was #6 when traded) 7. Valera (now #4 due to attrition) 8. Clarke- traded 9. Gonzales (now #2 and not all due to attrition) 10. Fajardo- traded 11. Soto (dropped to #17, despite 7 players above him gone, now) 12. Sandlin- traded 13. Phillips (now #15 and dropping) 14. Eyanson- #2 when traded 15. Godbout (now #5 not all bt attrition) 16. Romero (dropped to #22 and may fall more) 17. Uberstine- traded 18. Drohan- traded 19. Holobetz (now #9 due mostly to attrition, IMO) 20. Travieso- traded 10 of the 20 traded (not counting Azocar) and 1 graduated. That's more than 50% out.

I'm fine with some sort of soft or hard cap, as long as there is a floor that rises quickly and significantly. I think the players would agree to it, if the owners offered tidbits to the majority of players and not the ones at the top of the food chain. Some ideas I have mentioned- geared toward most players are.... shortened pre-arb and or arb years greatly increasing minimum pay (perhaps change the formula for players yo-yo'd between minors/majors. increase roster sizes 26 to 27 and or 40 to 42 further incentivize teams to call up top prospects earlier rather than build control years If owners give up enough in these types of areas, the majority of players, who are not greatly impacted by salary caps, anyway, might go along with the cap.

Red also feels like he has some unique ability to fully know what the majority of Sox Nation believes and the rest of us are isolated in cocoons and and are out of touch. The next fallacy is, he believes that what the majority of what Sox Nation thinks is somehow correct or the most important the actual truth. Yes, ours and others' prospects are hyped and sometimes overhyped. Yes, sometimes to many times they never reach the expectations or hypes. Therefore all must be labelled "suspects" until proven not to be, and the proven not to be is only allowed under his singular methodology that often relies mainly on things like RBIs for everyday players and wins for pitchers. Once he gets a firm opinion on a player, manager or GM, there is no room for adjustments, because he feels admitting being wrong is a sign of weakness- and this is what I perceive to be the trilogy of fallacy for Ole Red. To be fair, I do think Anthony has not fulfilled what most expected, because hardly anyone expects more than half the time lost to injury. In the time he did play, he likely fell short of expected power, but his OBP was likely better and the .803 OPS should be be viewed us underwhelming, at all. Mayer and Campbell surely got off to bad starts, and while the jury is still out, their expectations have taken a serious hit. What is missing from all the "suspect" talk from Red is when rookies overperform, and we saw Tolle, early and Bennett start of way better than expects, and with Bennett shockingly so. Many rightfully questioned the high expectations for Narvaez after a nice rookie season, but they also questioned Durbin's projections based on a good 2025 rookie season. One poster questioned Rafaela's continued growth and improvement and projected decline or stalled growth. I projected age curve growth for most of our pre-prime players and was disappointed (and wrong) about several of them. Here's what grinds me: I hear things like "Anthony was overhyped and nobody will admit they were wrong." For one, not a single poster I know said anything about expecting greatness from Roman in year one, so claiming they were wrong is based on a false interpretation of opinions. Secondly, the claim that he's been a failure is up for debate. While injuries have kept his production down, a .370 OBP and .800 OPS is far from being a failure for anybody's first 500 or so PAs in MLB. It just isn't. It shouldn't be debatable, IMO. The missed time, yes, but not what he's done when he's played. Also, factor in that's played hurt for some of his time. No doubt, a player on the IL or bench provides no value, but it doesn't make him a bust or worthy of slanderous comments about a non existent "pinky" injury. (He thinks he's being cute with the underhanded slander, then wonders why players hate playing in boston or wilt under the pressure from the media and fanbase. With fans like Red, no wonder they bolt.)

Yup. Fried has an AAV of $27.25M, which was just $6M more than Buehler (the cost of IKF.) The 8 years is very scary, though. He'll be 33 in January and has 6 years left! He just missed 12-13 starts, this year. I'm thinking the 4 years left for Suarez at about the same money looks safer than 6 more for Fried. Sometimes the short year deals work- just never for us. 2026: 3.10 in 31 GS (180 IP) Nick Martinez at $13M/1 (WOW!) Woodruff (just 9 GS,) Gallen (huge bust) and Imanaga (3.77 in 32 GS and 174 IP) signed for $22M/1. Bassitt signed for $18.5M/1 (not good) Like 1 in 4 worked, and NM did better than all 4 at less money. 2025: Nick Martinez signed for the same amount as Buehler. Verlander signed for $15M/1. 3.85 in 29 GS (153 IP) Verlander 4.45 in 26 GS (166 IP) Martinez (Others like Scherzer $15.5M, Morton $15M, Cobb $15M were busts, too.) 2024 Jordan Montgomery $25M/1 (Huge bust) Montas $16M/1 (bust) Flaherty $14M/1 (3.17 in 162 IP) $13M/1 K Gibson (4.24 in 170) , Severino (3.91 in 182) $11M/1 L Lynn (3.84 in 117 and 23 GS) When you look at the final results from Buehler (25), Paxton (23 & 24), Kluber (23), Richards (21) and Sandoval (25-26), it's more than $65M over 6 years. There are some similar $65M/6 type deals made during this time that sucked, but here are some decent comps: $75M/5 ERod (22) $63M/3 Bassitt (23) $26M/4 Wacha (23 w opt out taken, then took $32M/2 in '24) $75M/3 S Gray (24) $53M/4 Imanaga (24) $45M/3 Lugo (24) $75M/3 Eovaldi (25) $55M/4 Pivetta $75M/3 M King (26)

Explain.

Gio redeemed his deal a little bit, but yes, overall it was not a great deal. Fangraphs gave his 2025 value as $15.3M. We paid him $38M. Campbell has been paid him $3M, so far, and he makes $3M in 2027, where he is not projected to have a significant MLB role. It's what comes after 2027 that will likely decide the bust claim. No Yoshida and Story. Probably no Duran and others could open up a role, but only if he earns a slot on the 26. He will be owed $54M/5 starting in 2028. That's a lot, but he does have time to rebuild his value. I'm actually fine with these early extensions, as I view them as ways to counter the situations where we lost Betts, Bogey and other prematurely. I expected some to work and some to not work. Some questioned the Rafaela extension, at the time. What would it cost to extend him right now? The guy is 27th in fWAR (8.0) since 2026 and just turned 26! His two year bWAR is 10.6! The Anthony deal will suck, if he can't stay healthy, but I still think it's a good deal, assuming he isn't hurt 1/4 or 1/3 of the time. Bello's deal looked horrific in May, and now seems hopeful. The big plus was not extending Mayer & Casas. I hate those Sandoval & Hendriks type deals, and it's a carry-over from the Bloom philosophy is puzzling. The Buehler gamble looked better to me than the Kluber, Richards and Paxton deals combined, but it was a major whiff. At least it was just one year. He did do slightly better with the Padres, this year, but he's toast. The Suarez signing is Brez's only long term FA signing to date. The jury is still out. The Crochet extension was something many of us felt was necessary to validate the package we gave up to acquire him. His injury now throws a different light on the whole thing. Can't say Brez should be blamed, but it's not like Crochet had a history of high IP and stellar health.

Good point. The park dynamics could significantly reduce his HR totals. Maybe some other batter's Fenway profile is a better fit. BLowe's numbers vs LHPs is scary. I'm thinking he'll be cheaper than Suzuki, and Lowe's ability to play 2B and LF kinda allows for a double chance at filling either hole. It's hard to know what Brez & Co. are thinking. Some major factors will influence who they will be targeting, and if we knew the answers to these and more questions, we might be better positioned to discuss who to sign. 1. Do they plan on Arias being the wire-to-wire SS for 2027? (2B with Story at SS? Is there room for Arias, Mead and Story at the keystone positions?) 2. Do they still consider Duran having a significant role in the 2027 team? (If yes, then Anthony is the DH not Mead. See #4) 3. Do they view Crochet as the Gray replacement and not seek another top SP'er? (Maybe just add depth like they did with Bennett & Oviedo last winter.) 4. What's up with Anthony? The answer here might affect their plans for Duran and DH roles for Mead/Story and others. 5. Do they see Houck & Crawford as the pen boost we need or SP depth- or both? 6. How strongly do they view Sogard, Campbell, Bello, Gasper/Yoshida and Guerrero/Slaten/Weissert? Note: knowing how their views on these issues would clear some thinking, but not necessarily solve the questions/issues.

Yup, and it seems like nobody else valued him even half as much as we did. Had we signed him at $10M a year, it would have been more bearable. They really missed the boat on his defense and near total lack of power. That was Bloom, and Story was Bloom's second and actually bigger signing and blunder. At least Story made more sense, had he just stayed healthy and given us his COL era away numbers. One year left on both of these guys. Seems like ages ago we signed them. Maybe we pull the plug on one of both, this coming winter, but with the lock out pending, what team wants to take on big salary, even if we pay a big chunk of it. Why would another GM have faith in Yoshida or story helping them in 2027? I guess if they only pay Yoshida $4-5M out of $18M or Story $6-8M out of $30M (counting the buyout) maybe. The easier way to clear up $8-10M is to trade or non-tender Duran. I seriously doubt we shed all three.

Nope. He does have a little added value as a 3rd catcher on the 26 man roster, but with AR, we won't need to PH for him, so that value is minimized. If Wong gets hurt, we'd call a catcher up anyway.

I am not against trading anybody, as long as I like the return more. DUH! Guys like Tolle, Chapman, Whitlock, AR, Mead, Rafaela and Abreu would need to be pried away, as their salaries are affordable. I doubt we trade Anthony or Arias. Bello and Bennett offer to much upside to consider trading. Crochet and Suarez have high monetary price tags that would scare away 15 teams right off the top. Brez has traded away many player he himself added via draft, trade or other ways, so it's not easy guessing what he might do. We do pretty much know two things: 1. He does not have the prospect trade capital he had in his first 3 winters. 2. He will have a restricted winter spending budget. He could maybe add some budget space by "saving" $5-6M trading Story, $3-5M trading Yoshida and maybe $7-9M by trading or non-tendering Duran. I doubt we trade the back-end loaded contract or Suarez, and if we did, we'd need Gray coming back or maybe more (Nick Martinez & Morejon?) but that would drain money from the bat acquiring budget. Realistically, our returning core will be: C: Rutschman 1B: Contreras 2B: Mead 3B: ______ Durbin??? (I think they are happy with Durbin) SS: ______ Arias (AAA?) LF/DH: Anthony DH/LF: ______ Yoshida??? CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu SP: Crochet, Tolle, _____ (Gray???) ______ Suarez (Trade???) Bennett, Bello & Oviedo RP: Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Houck, Crawford, Slaten, Guerrero, _____ (Weissert trade???) Our roster depth is fine, and may even need to be thinned out via trades, as we have some logjams, most notably: OF Duran, White (out of options) & Jones (out of options) Eaton & Ward INF: Sogard (likely kept) Seigler, Monasterio, Cheng, Romero and of course Story (Arias is a big trade chip but we need a SS now and going forward.) DH/1B: Yoshida, Gasper, Brannon & Jo Garcia (both Rule 5's)

I'm not good at these guesses. He's had two straight 30+ HR seasons, so that must up his value, but he's a year older (32) and has worsened vs LHPs. He's great v RHPs and kinda sucks v LHPs. When you pay as much as he will get, you kinda want a FT'er, right? Maybe the split thing is a fluke- maybe not. I still want BLowe, but do I want to pay a 32 year old a ton of money on a 4-5 year deal? Maybe a 3 year deal would be worth the risk, but someone may offer 4-5. $85M/3? $100M/4? $115M/5? My guess is Suzuki gets more, even though he's 32 also.

Sticking with Duran up first had some logic behind it, but the wait for the turnaround never materialized. I was a bit surprised to see Anthony leading in PAs in the 1 slot, and for all the grief he's gotten, he did 71 points better than Duran in OBP. .333 Anthony 213 PAs .262 Duran 202 .333 Sogard 104 .255 Seigler 95 .310 Yoshida 42 .281 Gasper 32 .556 Jones 27 (short sided platoon) .300 Eaton 20 .400 Rafaela 10 .200 Monasterio 5 We simply have to do better here, and while Anthony has a .370 career OBP, I'm not confident he can stay healthy. They don't even know what his hand issue is. The .303 OBP from the 2 slot is about as bad as can be. The two slot is the most important slot according to modern line-up theory. i really like Rafaela, but he should not be a top 5 or 6 batter in a winning offense. .301 Rafaela 391 PAs (.434 SLG) .306 Gasper 99 (.671) YUCK!!! .372 Contreras 78 (.484) Great but we needed him 3rd or 4th. .119 Story 42 (.214) was beyond awful. .250 Jones 24 (.286) .304 Durbin 23 (.211) awful SLG for 2 slot. .409 Monasterio 22 (.444) .368 Yoshida 19 (.294) too low SLG If we get a power hitter, maybe we can bat Contreras 2nd and run with Anthony 1st, but more likely we need an outside addition to spruce up 1 or both of these slots. Mead could be a nice bat in the 2 slot, since he had an OBP over .340 v L and R. That would allow Willson to bat 4th. I'd prefer Abreu up 5th or 6th not 3rd, but the modern strategy values the 5 slot more than the 3, so maybe 3 is okay. That puts the pressure on greatly improving the 5 slot- best if a LHP. That could be BLowe v RHPs and AR vs LHPs, I guess, but this assumes Anthony, Mead, Abreu and Willson are all healthy and not having a bad year.

Two games never leave me in disbelief, but of course we all know this was more than just 2 games. We played poorly or near .500 for most of the season, and couldn't hit for a month before those two games. We put our eggs in the pitching basket, and we went against a team with eggs in both baskets.

I'm counting on Duran being gone. I could be wrong. I think we trade White or Jones. I'm not counting on Anthony, although I think he can be a big plus to our offense, if he stays on the field (or in the dugout as a DH.) I'm not a Story-hater, but certainly he is one we can identify as "upgradeable." He can't be easily traded, but I would if Arias is slotted as out 2027 SS. If not, he's my back up SS and can share time with Mead at 2B or DH some. Mead can DH and back up Contreras at 1B, but if Anthony is the DH with BLowe in LF, there is no room for Mead to DH. If Anthony is in LF, then Mead can DH and BLowe can play 2B. So, no Duran or Story allows for us to hedge against Anthony's health and still play BLOwe, Anthony and Mead FT, if they are all healthy at the same time. Rotating the 3 through the DH slot could help them all stay fresh or still play through an injury that does not affect their batting, I'm a big Arias fan, but just to let those who think I over-hype prospects too much, I'm not expecting more than a .720 OPS and plus defense from Arias in year one. I am fully aware he may hit .650, too, but if we keep Story as depth, we are at the same point as now. Otherwise, we'll rely on Monasterio, Cheng or Sogard in a pinch. (I doubt Godbout will be a 2027 factor.) BLowe gives us a big power boost. He bats LH'd and does struggle vs LHPs, so it would be a lot of money to pay for someone who may be best used as a platoon player. He his .548 v L in '25 and .648 v L this year. His career mark is .684, so he's gotten worse as he ages. He just turned 32, so there is that issue as well, but many other choices out there have the same issues of play positions that cause the same or more complex maneuvering. Lowe has 66 HRs in the past 2 years (59 2B+3B)in 1209 PAs. I'd like a better OBP than .320, but I think this is my top bat to target. I can be convinced to change my mind.

Yes, and one reason he did not was because Yoshida morphed into one almost as soon as we got him. Sign a FT DH and move Yoshida to LF made no sense.

It was a fun season, and we got to see that amazing historical stretch. It ended badly and to the Yanks made it way worse. I think we were a better team than 2025, and we only lose one key player (Gray.) Last year, we lost 1/2 Devers, Bregman Giolito, Wilson and other decent players. We may need much better health or some serious upticks, or we can make some big additions. Maybe a little of both.

Not worthy of the Realistic thread... LOL BTV Accepts Justin Gonzalez, Valera and Soto for 2 years of Yordan Alvarez. I doubt HOU even thinks about it. BTV Accepts Story, Wong and Duran for Sean Murphy BTV Accepts Yoshida for Kikuchi BTV Accepts Arias & Cespedes for de la Cruz Sign Gray ________________ Crochet, Tolle, Gray, Suarez, Bennett, Bello Chapman, Whitlock, Miller, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo, Slaten/Guerrero 1. L Anthony LF 2. L Alvarez DH 3. R Contreras 1B 4. S de la Cruz SS 5. L Abreu RF 6. S Rutschman C 7. R Mead 2B 8. R Rafaela CF 9. R Durbin 3B Bench: R Murphy C, S Sogard UT, R Romy UT, R White or Jones OF