moonslav59

I was hopeful Tracy didn't have the same bond with Story as Cora, but it seems like he might. Story did do well out of the gate, upon his return, but he did not end the season well. (Who did?) I'm not a Story hater. I just think his time is up. I suppose it's worth giving him a look, but he's usually a slow starter, so it seems a waste. I'm not a firm Arias believer, at least as a plus in his rookie year, but I see him as a better defender with about an equal bat projection for 2027.

Not bad.

Our biggest danger injury position is catcher. Our back up is Wong with maybe Jo Garcia in AAA. Gasper is an emergency 3rd C.

This also assumes no major injury, I think we need a major upgrade. I doubt we get Sato or Suzuki, and I'm not sure any other FA would be a major upgrade. That's one reason I was suggesting frameworks for minor upgrades... like Durbin + _____ for a better 3Bman.

Not horrible = not a ring.

Indeed, but we counted on 300 PAs more from Anthony this year and got less. Don't get me wrong, I'm really liking the idea of full seasons from Mead, AR and maybe Anthony. That alone could be all the boost we need, but chances are someone gets hurt or has a sharp decline. Maybe it won't be one of those three. It could be Contreras, Abreu, Rafaela or Durbin. It could be the decent depth we got from Gasper (132 OPS+), Jones (178) Sogard (106) and Seigler (105) goes bad. I remember thinking .700 to .720 from Narvaez, this season and maybe .725 to .775 from Duran. Something almost always goes wrong, and we need to plan for that. I'd go hard for Sato or Suzuki and trade Duran. I'd kick some tires on dumping Yoshida and Story, but I know the chances are slim, unless we just trade dumps with another team- like Yoshida for Kikuchi.

Here is another view: fWAR/IP: .028 Tolle .026 Suarez .020 Bennett .020 Gray .019 Sandoval .006 Early __________ .009 Bello __________ .038 Whitlock .031 Chapman .019 Slaten .017 Guerrero .016 Miller .015 Gamboa .004 Weissert ________________________ 2025-2026 .026 Crochet .026 Suarez (2 teams) .024 Tolle .020 Bennett 0.20 Gray (2 teams) .010 Bello __________ .037 Chapman .034 Whitlock .013 Slaten .007 Weissert

We will likely know nothing more until we see him batting in ST'ing.

Some interesting pitching fWAR numbers: Sox: #15 Tolle 4.1 #20 Suarez 3.8 #26 Gray 3.4 #67 Bennett 2.3 (just 19 GS) #85 Whitlock 2.0 (10th as a RP) #110 Chapman 1.6 (15th as RP) #135 Sandoval 1.3 #165 Bello 1.0 (1.2 as RP places 33rd) Have we ever had three top 26 fWAR pitchers? 2004: #5 Schilling 6.6, #9 Pedro 4.9, #29 Arroyo 3.3 & #77 DLowe 2.2 2007: #4 Beckett 5.7, #46 Dice-K 2.9, #65 Schilling 2.3 & #77 Papelbon 2.0 2013: #32 Lester 3.3, #40 Uehara 3.1, #47 Buchholz 2.7 & #55 Lackey 2.5 2018: #4 Sale 6.2, #50 Price & Porcello 2.4 & #65 Nate 2.2 (2 teams) Ex-Sox: #4 Sale 5.8 #30 ERod 3.2 #40 D May 2.8 #60 Wacha 2.4 #85 Drohan 2.0 (better than Harrison) #100 Eovaldi 1.8 #105 Harrison & Newcomb 1.7 #125 Buehler & M Perez 1.5 #135 Pivetta 1.3 ______________________ How about some 2 year SP'er fWAR totals? #6 Sale 9.3 #11 Suarez 7.9 #19 Gray 7.0 #21 Wacha 6.2 #22 Crochet 6.1 #30 Nate 5.3 #34 Pivetta 5.0 #48 ERod 4.5 #57 Tolle 3.9 #70 D May 3.4 RP #5 Chapman & Whitlock 4.2 #17 Newcomb 2.4 #43 Bernardino 1.6 #70 Bello 1.0

When is the last time a hand injury forced a player to miss two seasons? This seems absurd.

I wouldn't be surprised if all this happens and Duran is back, too. Since Arias does not need to be added to the 40, we may hold off on that, and hence his promotion until after the season starts. Players can be placed on the 60 Day IL once ST'ing arrives, so he may be added then, but only if they plan on promoting him to MLB. Although it might be easier to trade Story or Yoshida, since they only have one year left, it's still will be very difficult, even if we throw in 80-90% of their remaining contractual cost or add a prospect to the deal. I get that. A lot depends on how many players we have on the 60 Day IL. IMO, we cannot afford to have 8-10 guys on the IL plus Story, Yoshida and Duran, who only seem to have slots due to their contractual costs. To me, I'd prefer Arias-Mead-Sogard to Story. I'm fine with Seigler, Monasterio & Cheng as depth. To me, Gasper or a healthy Casas vs RHPs offers close to the same projection as Yoshida. Note: while Romy, Jones and Sogard are way better vs LHPs, they don't really offer better than Yoshida v RHPs. Mead could DH v L with Story at 2B, and we wouldn't miss Yoshida, but I'd like to see both Story and Yoshida (plus Duran) gone. I fully realize the chances just one is gone may not even be 40-50%. Two is maybe 10-20%, at best. All 3 is probably under 2%.

I'd like to see an AR extension, otherwise that trade looks worse, but we need to see what the budget looks like after a key winter addition or two is made. We don't have the trade capital we had the last 2 winters, so free agency seems like the way we will need to improve the roster. The good thing is, IMO we only need 1-2 major additions and very few minor ones.

They say he does not need surgery, but how do they know that, if they don't know what is wrong and why it didn't heal as fast as expected for what they believed the injury was?

Even if we dump Story, Duran and Yoshida, here is starting 9: C: AR 1B: Contreras 2B: Mead 3B: Durbin SS: Arias LF: Anthony CF: Rafaela RF: Abreu DH: Gasper-Jones (Sogard-Romy) But my question involved adding Sato (or Suzuki,) so that bumps the DH slot to Sato or we put Sato at 2B and move Mead to DH. Now, who is the guy you try to upgrade? I could see choosing Anthony, due to his unreliability or Arias due to his unknown factor, but to me Durbin is close, especially if we focus on offense only. Anthony (if healthy)> Durbin Durbin> Arias (probably) It's a close call. Hey, adding just Sato and dumping Duran & Yoshida, while getting Story to agree to be the back-up middle infielder makes sense, too but the Story claim is concerning, and then that squeezes Sogard out of that role, and he might be better.

I might put Wehunt ahead of Mullins, but it's a close call. The Eyanson call seems correct as these three had about double the IP'd as Anthony. I've never been that high on Mullins, but he keeps putting up good numbers. To me, he should be moved to the pen, but that doesn't take away from the season he had. I'm big on the OPS Against stat, and here are the team leaders (95+ IP) .619 Mullins .635 Brown .692 Wehunt .692 Holobetz .718 Futrell _________________ 60-94 IP .476 Eyanson .527 Delzine .636 Gilman .644 Paez .687 Mayers

Hey! The guy led the team in HRs in 2025! Also, RBIs (by 12 over #2 Duran and 27 over #3 Abreu) and SBs (with just one late season CS.) That being said, I'm 100% ready to move on from Story. We should go with Arias at SS and Mead at 2B. I'm also 100% done with Duran. Trade him. I'm 90% done with Yoshida. Bye-bye to IKF and Sandoval. Gray needs to be brought back or replaced near in kind, but I can see Brez thinking Crochet, Houck, Crawford and Oviedo will be viewed as "enough." Any financial resources set aside for winter spending should go towards a bat- preferably a LH'd power bat. Don't spread the wealth: go top quality on one guy, unless the budget is big enough to go top quality for one and one moderate add.

The easy solution is to just sign Sato and cross our fingers he's not like Yoshida. I'm thinking we might need more than just Sato (or Suzuki.) I'm a big Durbin and Sogard fan, but I also know we have to give something of value to get something of equal or greater value. I'd much rather trade Duran, Story and Yoshida, but we won't be getting quality returns for any or all of them. I also really like Seigler, Monasterio, Gasper, Cheng, Arias and Story to take over Sogard's role. The idea of getting a better offensive 3Bman with Sato and then using Durbin and Sogard to upgrade another slot has some merit. Ideally, we get Sato and keep these 8: Rafaela, Abreu, Contreras, Durbin, AR, Mead and Anthony and simply upgrade 9th slot some other way. IMO, starting Arias at SS does just that. Try and trade 1-3 from Duran, Story or Masa to save some money, so we can afford Sato and maybe Gray, but I realize this is not an easy task. Adding Sato and upgrading one of the other 8 listed plus Arias/Story at SS is essentially the only other way to improve the offense. Here is a question for you: assuming we add Sato (big assumption, I know,) and assuming you have to upgrade one other slot, which one (player) do you choose to upgrade? C: AR 1B: Contreras 2B: Mead (Story?) 3B: Durbin SS: Arias (Story?) LF: Anthony/Duran CF: Rafaela/Duran RF: Abreu If we can trade or bench Duran & Story, we'd have Mead at 2B or DH and Anthony in LF or DH, and the upgrade could come at any of the 2 slots: 2B/LF/DH rather than 3B (Durbin) or SS (Arias,) but is there a better slot to look at? DH: Mead/Anthony

I really like Durbin, and there is a good chance he gets better. My point was to trade Durbin & Sogard for someone better than Durbin? You don't want someone better than Durbin? Look, I get the point about thinking Durbin is way down on the list of starters needing an upgrade, but the theory is an upgrade is an upgrade. Our top fWAR everyday players: 4.1 Rafaela 4.0 Contreras (will be 36) 3.3 Abreu 3.1 Durbin 1.2 Sogard 1.1 IKF (goner) 0.8 Gasper 0.7 Anthony & AR 0.6 Jones 0.5 Duran 0.4 Yoshida & Seigler _________________ fWAR per game .0308 Contreras .0303 Rutschman .0297 Rafaela .0210 Abreu .0202 Durbin .0182 Sogard .0170 Mead .0130 Anthony (.0363 in 2025) .0120 Gasper _________________ Durbin in not close to being "the guy" we look to upgrade, but we should never overlook a chance to upgrade anywhere.

I don't really like the idea of 8 four team divisions. I'd prefer 4 divisions of 8 teams, but that would create some issues, unless you go totally geographical and break apart the whole AL-NL history. Assume Nashville and SLC as you suggest: EAST: BOS, NYY, NYM, PHI, BAL, WSH, TOR, PIT NORTH: DET, CLE, CIN, CHC, CWS, MIL, MIN, SLC SOUTH: ATL, TBR, MIA, NSH, STL, KCR, TEX, HOU WEST: COL, LV, AZ, SEA, SFG, LAD, LAA, SDP You could lump East and South or East and North into one conference. Or, have no conferences- just 4 divisions. Games: 3 x 16 other conference= 48 6 x 8 other division within conference= 48 9 x 7 teams in own division= 63 (10 games vs 3 and 9 games vs 4)=66 or with no conferences: 4 x 24 other divisions= 96 (lots of 2 game series or play 4 game series H and A and alternating yearly. Maybe 2 and 2 vs some closer teams and 4 game series with far away teams.) 9 or 10 games x 7 own division= 66 games or 5 games vs 24 teams=120 games (3 H and 2 A or 2 H and 3 A with alternating seasons) 6 games vs own 7 teams= 42 games (This is a highly balanced scheduling idea.) Only 6 games vs own division cuts way back on rivalry series.

Since we have pretty solid 13-16 everyday players on the 40, and we lack enough high quality batters to be a top offense, we should have the ability to add a big bat, and then trade from the depth we have and the current starter we replace can, in theory be traded, too. We have a bottleneck at utility infielders, and while we cannot expect any grand return by trading one, we could trade something like Seigler + Slaten or Monasterio + Weissert for a better RP'er. We could trade Sogard, who i think more than just I like a lot, plus Duran for a better LF'er. Sogard plus Durbin for a better 3Bman. Sogard plus Yoshida for some salary relief and a better DH. This just theory: I get it. Other teams are looking at 40 man roster crunches and try to avoid 1 for 2 in November/December. I do think many teams might view Sogard as a FT'er in 2027 on their team. They may not like Weissert, Slaten or Duran and Yoshida, but we could plug in someone else and try to move from quantity to quality just a little bit with 1-2 trades, then make one major bat signing, and maybe together it will be enough.

I just hope Brez is not looking at the summer additions of AR and Mead and the return of Anthony for 600+ PAs as all or most of what we need to improve our offense in 2027.

There does seem to be a little better injury outlook this winter than last, but I'm so tired of wishing against wishes that some good players return from the IL to lead us to more and more wins. It just never seems to happen for the Sox. Okay, Giolito came back to give us one good year. A few others have, too, but the last two years were absurd. I'm still worried about Anthony, since nobody seems to even know what's wrong and why he isn't healing. The 2026 returns of Crochet, Houck, Crawford and Mead were so late it seemed almost comedic. Crawford was literally scheduled to start AAA's last game of the season then it was cancelled. Still, they look more ready than they did last winter or on opening day. Oviedo was viewed as healthy on opening day, and now looks more suspect, but he never had the high hopes of Mead, Houck or Crawford. (maybe close to Crawford.) Slaten is maybe more suspect than before, but nobody has felt secure about Slaten's health- same with Casas and Kelly. We are finally done with Sandoval. We have worries about Crochet, but last winter we did have worries about him leading the AL in IP in 2025 after never coming close to that many IP before. Crochet did come back to pitch. I'm not lessening the concerns on Mead, Crochet, Houck, Crawford, Oviedo and now Whitlock, but they all should be projected to be fine to enter ST'ing ready to go full steam ahead. Slaten, Casas and Anthony still have big questions in my mind. Only Anthony really matters. Every player in MLB has questions. How secure do Yankee fans have in Judge, anymore? When he has been healthy in the playoffs, he's stumbled and bumbled to a pretty large extent. Of course, I'm not saying I wouldn't want Judge on my team over almost everyone we have, and of course, the Yanks proved they had a better team behind Judge, than we had behind Anthony, Mead and Crochet, but still, nobody in baseball is a sure bet. As much as Brez has gotten grief, and some to much of it has been justifiable, he did make an effort to greatly improve the offense. It seemed like most of us felt he came up short, last winter, when he chose to sign Suarez after losing out on Bregman, but he did add Contreras, who did better than a 35 year old player should have. He added Durbin, who hit close to .800 over the last 2/3 of the season. That clearly was not enough to make up for losing Bregman and Devers. The Anthony injury did not help, but we did not really have more than our fair share of injuries on offense than most teams. The thing Brez did that no GM has done in a long time- even DD never did this: added two significant mid season upgrades on offense. Rutschman (.753 career and .740 in 2026) promised at least a 100 point OPS gain over Narvaez (.626 career) & Wong (.676 career but .586 since 2025.) Mead might be more speculative in projected production, but he was at .850 before his injury. That's over 150 points higher than our 2B OPS for many many years. Mead's immediate injury kinda made his addition forgotten. It was a valiant try by Brez. Of course, we need more than just valiant attempts: we need results, and while we got good to great results from his 3 major winter additions- Gray, Contreras and Suarez, we needed even more and even better. I'll end by asking this question: when was the last time a Sox GM's 3 major winter moves gave results like those three? I'm hopeful his 2 major summer additions produce similar results in 2027. I'm hopeful Brez adds another 1-2 productive pieces this coming winter.

Welcome aboard. It sucked- bigtime. Getting killed in both games made it even worse. It's going to be a long winter.

Breg. My bad.

Nobody said anyone asked us to care, and obviously you care enough to spew nonsense ad nauseum. We took what "and ran with it." The trade was a complete disaster, but you missed the part about there still being some logic to the deal, when it was made. Not a single person praised Brez for this trade in hindsight, and the ones who liked it, of grew to like it like I did after initially not liking it all knew it could blow up and that $17M was a lot of money. Keep arguing against strawmen: that's your specialty. Keep ignoring that hindsight can vary from foresight and still be logical. It's a strange black and white world you live in, but to each his own. At least you seem blissful in your cocoon of ignorance.