sk7326

It has worked out that way. That said, if fans look at the Yankees and Dodgers as Red Sox peers and the constant pursuit for more (true in the Dodgers case, less so in the NYY) I can't blame them ... particularly when the best players on the team were in fact not old.

Yes. That said, looking at McAdam's reporting - the White Sox wanted Bello as part of a deal for Cease which is hard to stomach. That said, I am receptive to the idea of trading Bello if you feel like his top end is more low end #2/good #3 - and a premium arm is available. But with Cease, the attraction is the contract and betting on peripherals. As far as the FA market goes - I think it's clear that not much is going to happen until Yamamoto moves. The Sox are in on him by all accounts, so I expect news to be very slow there.

I think all of these motives are unfair. Henry wants to win. But I do think there is a moral position about spending which does not jive with what the industry is doing. Hard business rules like "I won't give a 75 year contract to anybody" means you are not competitive for some of the best free agents. I do think he has gotten stuck there. Moreover, I always go back to 2019 - the decision by the organization to NOT look at the team and its core as an opportunity for a multi-title window, and then once you make that decision, not being more proactive in moving Betts. Bloom did a solid job rebuilding the farm - but either he on his own, or the franchise via budgeting completely ignored pitching that would have likely made a different for the 2023 team. Why that is is a mystery. I think about the Sox situation more at a 30,000 foot level. The post 2020 teams are the first ones since Harrington ran the team where there was not great ex ante hope for a 90 win team (the 2021 team was a surprise). At this second 2024 is going to be another one. And that is hard to swallow as one of the big kids on the block.

Mayer maybe is #1. That said, I think his trade value is likely slightly diminished until he shows his shoulder is healthy. And - again, Anthony's performance last year kind of skews how we look at Mayer. Boston could very well decide that Mayer is among the level of prospects that orgs like Boston keep for themselves. And that would make sense to me. Honestly, this question is where the org-wide lack of pitching REALLY hurts. If we had more high level organizational pitching prospects, they become good candidates as high level trade bait.

The abuse hurt ... but his unwillingness to pitch to contact was something that never got resolved in his US career.

"Not spending" is hyperbole "Not keeping up with the industry" is not

Yes. Cespedes is a wild card though just because he smoked a level as a 17-year old. The range of outcomes is wide - but the age-performance combination is what you want.

Mayer played through a shoulder injury and was one of the youngest regulars in the league (Anthony of course was even younger) ... if he is awful after an offseason of rest/rehab I would get the skepticism. And there is likely positional value things too. Agreed on Rafaela - though that doesn't preclude being a solid big leaguer. There is enough power and defense that he just has to improve a little in the discipline area.

Throw strikes

Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/01/sports/red-sox-top-prospects/ 1. Marcelo Mayer 2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers) 3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position) 4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve? 5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery? 6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact) 7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start? 8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers) 9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start? 10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)

Of the trade targets listed, Cease is the most interesting to me - you get the extra control and the strikeout rate is at least an indicator that there was some bad luck involved with last year. Seattle to me doesn't make sense to just trade Gilbert - they have actual aspirations of being good.

The Cardinals have often been able to get good performance out of the pitchers, Lynn and Gibson make sense as some end of the rotation/swing potential.

I think the innings eater could be his floor. If you think you can get him for 2/24 or something, there is probably more upside with him than other pitchers in that end of the pool. You can argue about whether we should be shopping in that end, but that is a different deal.

Yes. Though I'd expect the winning offer for him to have an opt-out after 5 or 6 years.

I am skeptical as well, but hope to be wrong. I don't know if this management is willing to sign these uber-long deals to manipulate AAV calculations. That said, they did do it for Devers - but I don't think they had "manipulate AAV" in mind.

7/172 is a good number ... I think the way to look at these deals now is to look at AAV for n-2 years. We know the length of the deals is as much to mitigate luxury tax concerns as anything.

People are buying high on him - that is very true. Friends don't let friends cite pitcher wins though.

I was soured a little - though some of the thing with Bogaerts was self inflicted by Boston.

You have to bet on scouting of course. But is it possible/likely that you can get ~20 WAR or so out of him over the first 5 years of the deal? Sure. Then it's not a lemon - but more "fine".

Oh there is risk ... but again, 25 year old premium FAs just don't get to the market. I'd also argue the opt out is not terrible for Boston If Yamamoto is a star, Boston will have to pay sticker price, but they still get the excess value of 5 years If Yamamoto is solid, not spectacular - it would likely justify the AAV for the early term and Boston can let someone else pay the sticker price If Yamamoto is awful, you're effed - but the opt out has nothing to do with that

I'd rather see if you can get a decent prove-it with Amed Rosario or Tim Anderson.

I kind of expect some deal like 9/270 with an optout after year 5 or 6. If Yamamoto is good, he will want at least one other huge payday.

They should have passed on Yoshida, signed Duval to play LF and then did the SS thing you advise.

2023 was a broken hand, 2021 was a torn calf muscle. Last year was back problems. I'd say the back is the most problematic.

The rumors of him going to Philadelphia make sense - Trout is a flags fly forever move, and the Sox just are not there. The Red Sox roster right now also doesn't have the flexibility that you'd like to be able to get Trout his 500+ PAs ... and let's be clear, Trout is still a 5 win player if you could get that many PAs but that has been a struggle. Honestly, Trout would be a buy low move worth trying if the team did not have Yoshida on the roster.