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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Mayer maybe is #1. That said, I think his trade value is likely slightly diminished until he shows his shoulder is healthy. And - again, Anthony's performance last year kind of skews how we look at Mayer. Boston could very well decide that Mayer is among the level of prospects that orgs like Boston keep for themselves. And that would make sense to me. Honestly, this question is where the org-wide lack of pitching REALLY hurts. If we had more high level organizational pitching prospects, they become good candidates as high level trade bait.
  2. sk7326
    The abuse hurt ... but his unwillingness to pitch to contact was something that never got resolved in his US career.
  3. sk7326
    "Not spending" is hyperbole "Not keeping up with the industry" is not
  4. sk7326
    Yes. Cespedes is a wild card though just because he smoked a level as a 17-year old. The range of outcomes is wide - but the age-performance combination is what you want.
  5. sk7326
    Mayer played through a shoulder injury and was one of the youngest regulars in the league (Anthony of course was even younger) ... if he is awful after an offseason of rest/rehab I would get the skepticism. And there is likely positional value things too. Agreed on Rafaela - though that doesn't preclude being a solid big leaguer. There is enough power and defense that he just has to improve a little in the discipline area.
  6. sk7326
    Throw strikes
  7. sk7326
    Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/01/sports/red-sox-top-prospects/ 1. Marcelo Mayer 2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers) 3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position) 4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve? 5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery? 6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact) 7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start? 8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers) 9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start? 10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)
  8. sk7326
    Of the trade targets listed, Cease is the most interesting to me - you get the extra control and the strikeout rate is at least an indicator that there was some bad luck involved with last year. Seattle to me doesn't make sense to just trade Gilbert - they have actual aspirations of being good.
  9. sk7326
    The Cardinals have often been able to get good performance out of the pitchers, Lynn and Gibson make sense as some end of the rotation/swing potential.
  10. sk7326
    I think the innings eater could be his floor. If you think you can get him for 2/24 or something, there is probably more upside with him than other pitchers in that end of the pool. You can argue about whether we should be shopping in that end, but that is a different deal.
  11. sk7326
    Yes. Though I'd expect the winning offer for him to have an opt-out after 5 or 6 years.
  12. sk7326
    I am skeptical as well, but hope to be wrong. I don't know if this management is willing to sign these uber-long deals to manipulate AAV calculations. That said, they did do it for Devers - but I don't think they had "manipulate AAV" in mind.
  13. sk7326
    7/172 is a good number ... I think the way to look at these deals now is to look at AAV for n-2 years. We know the length of the deals is as much to mitigate luxury tax concerns as anything.
  14. sk7326
    People are buying high on him - that is very true. Friends don't let friends cite pitcher wins though.
  15. sk7326
    I was soured a little - though some of the thing with Bogaerts was self inflicted by Boston.
  16. sk7326
    You have to bet on scouting of course. But is it possible/likely that you can get ~20 WAR or so out of him over the first 5 years of the deal? Sure. Then it's not a lemon - but more "fine".
  17. sk7326
    Oh there is risk ... but again, 25 year old premium FAs just don't get to the market. I'd also argue the opt out is not terrible for Boston If Yamamoto is a star, Boston will have to pay sticker price, but they still get the excess value of 5 years If Yamamoto is solid, not spectacular - it would likely justify the AAV for the early term and Boston can let someone else pay the sticker price If Yamamoto is awful, you're effed - but the opt out has nothing to do with that
  18. sk7326
    I'd rather see if you can get a decent prove-it with Amed Rosario or Tim Anderson.
  19. sk7326
    I kind of expect some deal like 9/270 with an optout after year 5 or 6. If Yamamoto is good, he will want at least one other huge payday.
  20. sk7326
    They should have passed on Yoshida, signed Duval to play LF and then did the SS thing you advise.
  21. sk7326
    2023 was a broken hand, 2021 was a torn calf muscle. Last year was back problems. I'd say the back is the most problematic.
  22. sk7326
    The rumors of him going to Philadelphia make sense - Trout is a flags fly forever move, and the Sox just are not there. The Red Sox roster right now also doesn't have the flexibility that you'd like to be able to get Trout his 500+ PAs ... and let's be clear, Trout is still a 5 win player if you could get that many PAs but that has been a struggle. Honestly, Trout would be a buy low move worth trying if the team did not have Yoshida on the roster.
  23. sk7326
    I do think there is a both/and aspect to this. The league is falling over themselves for a 25 year old free agent, which is just something that doesn't happen. But yeah the Red Sox need to explore all avenues. They have to end up with at least 2 reliable starters from this.
  24. sk7326
    All of the ideas for SS were bad - and let's face it if Kike hit, they could have held their noses some. But Kike turning back into a pumpkin after 2021 offensively combined with THAT defense was ho-ho-horrendous.
  25. sk7326
    Bloom was sacrificed due to public displeasure. That's really been the common thread with Henry's actions with the baseball operation. If people watch less NESN then somebody has to get fired. The biggest reason Bloom is not here to see his work through is that fans didn't like him. (and some of that was self inflicted)
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