sk7326

A lot of this comes down to whether O'Neill can play more than one outfield position. I don't know if he is a starter, but with Yoshida, Duran, Casas taking up some of those corner/DH positions, having a right handed bat is not a bad idea. It would have been nice to have Verdugo AND O'Neill as a right handed platoon partner. Given who got traded and O'Neill's own salary - the downside is pretty small ... and he doesn't block any of the Red Sox OF prospects if they make ML level leaps.

Sox trading for Tyler O'Neill per multiple reports

Kind of a shrug emoji ... his arm fell off ... when it didn't he was good, if not a staff ace. He was also a workhorse when his arm was attached to his body.

Yeah. Now what I will say for OAA is that it is coming from a better dataset (Statcast tracking) then we've had in the past. You are right - gotta look at the big picture on the metrics, but OAA is working from a better starting point.

Yes, though you figure the 7 years is one of those "let's slide under the luxury" tax sort of business.

Yeah. It looks like the industry is waiting for Yamamoto to orient the rest of the market.

Definitely has been a minute since he wasn't a pure hot taker Both David Schoenfeld (ESPN) and Keith Law (Athletic) thought the deal was even enough ... Sox get some bullpen-ish arms for a guy they might very well have non-tendered, and the Yankees get a guy who could be valuable if you can find a platoon partner.

Oh yeah. What is particularly sad is that the two moves the Sox made were - on the surface - not crazy. Youk was a 5 win player who had handled 3B before. And Adrian Gonzalez was arguably the best 1B in the league. But both players - after good 2011s, fell off cliffs. Youk's body fell apart in particular. Youk's collapse is one of the big developments that was a real gut punch to the team's plans for a bit there.

The Marlins thing proved that when a team goes to near the bottom of the league in payroll hilarity ensues - it's why Tampa is special. Now I think what an analysis like this misses is whether Dombrowski is particularly unique in how the teams did when the rebuild was on ... and the evidence is fairly weak one way or the other. My main objection to Dombrowski's firing was that he was fired essentially for doing exactly what the owner wanted him to do when they hired him. I wouldn't call the 3 years of Dombrowski the best in my lifetime as a Sox fan - but I am also spoiled. 2003-2005 and 2007-2009 both do very nicely.

That could work. But i do think travel reasons can justify divisions. If the league expanded again and went to four 8-team divisions, then I think that would be a solid equlibrium. (10 games in division, 6 games out of division, 3 games against half of interleague, 4 games against rest of interleague)

It went okay with the Expos back in the day. And while he was not around to see the finale, the players he got in the Marlins tear down figured prominently in the 2003 title team. I do think Henry pulled the rug out from under him in 2019. But the "we need to keep trying to win titles" vs "we need to sell this team off" rift could have been a dealbreaker.

I wouldn't either - though I wish Bello got more swing and miss. Cease is a bet on peripherals, and I'd like more certainty if I were moving somebody like Bello - who is at worst a mid rotation starter with lots of team control.

Yeah. And the chaos of baseball is part of the fun. That said, I think there would be fewer complaints if they realigned to two divisions per league and 4 wildcards. And the idea of a ghost win in the division series is interesting to me.

It has worked out that way. That said, if fans look at the Yankees and Dodgers as Red Sox peers and the constant pursuit for more (true in the Dodgers case, less so in the NYY) I can't blame them ... particularly when the best players on the team were in fact not old.

Yes. That said, looking at McAdam's reporting - the White Sox wanted Bello as part of a deal for Cease which is hard to stomach. That said, I am receptive to the idea of trading Bello if you feel like his top end is more low end #2/good #3 - and a premium arm is available. But with Cease, the attraction is the contract and betting on peripherals. As far as the FA market goes - I think it's clear that not much is going to happen until Yamamoto moves. The Sox are in on him by all accounts, so I expect news to be very slow there.

I think all of these motives are unfair. Henry wants to win. But I do think there is a moral position about spending which does not jive with what the industry is doing. Hard business rules like "I won't give a 75 year contract to anybody" means you are not competitive for some of the best free agents. I do think he has gotten stuck there. Moreover, I always go back to 2019 - the decision by the organization to NOT look at the team and its core as an opportunity for a multi-title window, and then once you make that decision, not being more proactive in moving Betts. Bloom did a solid job rebuilding the farm - but either he on his own, or the franchise via budgeting completely ignored pitching that would have likely made a different for the 2023 team. Why that is is a mystery. I think about the Sox situation more at a 30,000 foot level. The post 2020 teams are the first ones since Harrington ran the team where there was not great ex ante hope for a 90 win team (the 2021 team was a surprise). At this second 2024 is going to be another one. And that is hard to swallow as one of the big kids on the block.

Mayer maybe is #1. That said, I think his trade value is likely slightly diminished until he shows his shoulder is healthy. And - again, Anthony's performance last year kind of skews how we look at Mayer. Boston could very well decide that Mayer is among the level of prospects that orgs like Boston keep for themselves. And that would make sense to me. Honestly, this question is where the org-wide lack of pitching REALLY hurts. If we had more high level organizational pitching prospects, they become good candidates as high level trade bait.

The abuse hurt ... but his unwillingness to pitch to contact was something that never got resolved in his US career.

"Not spending" is hyperbole "Not keeping up with the industry" is not

Yes. Cespedes is a wild card though just because he smoked a level as a 17-year old. The range of outcomes is wide - but the age-performance combination is what you want.

Mayer played through a shoulder injury and was one of the youngest regulars in the league (Anthony of course was even younger) ... if he is awful after an offseason of rest/rehab I would get the skepticism. And there is likely positional value things too. Agreed on Rafaela - though that doesn't preclude being a solid big leaguer. There is enough power and defense that he just has to improve a little in the discipline area.

Throw strikes

Speier's Top 10 Sox Prospects https://www.bostonglobe.com/2023/12/01/sports/red-sox-top-prospects/ 1. Marcelo Mayer 2. Roman Anthony - key question: Why Mayer over Anthony as the top prospect (short answer, longer track record of performance against older peers) 3. Kyle Teel - key question: Can Teel swim in the deep end? (already in AA, being aggressively moved for his position) 4. Ceddane Rafaela - key: Can his swing decisions improve? 5. Miguel Bleis - key: How will he come back from shoulder surgery? 6. Wilyer Abreu - key: Will he open the year in the Boston lineup? (he is probably the most likely of the prospects for 2024 impact) 7. Wikelman Gonzalez - key Can he throw enough strikes to start? 8. Nick Yorke - key: Which path will he take? (2021, 2022, 2023 gave three very different answers) 9. Luis Perales - key: Can he throw enough strikes to start? 10. Yoellin Cespedes - key: Will he keep dominating against more advanced pitching? (crazy exit velos for his age, but it's still low level)

Of the trade targets listed, Cease is the most interesting to me - you get the extra control and the strikeout rate is at least an indicator that there was some bad luck involved with last year. Seattle to me doesn't make sense to just trade Gilbert - they have actual aspirations of being good.

The Cardinals have often been able to get good performance out of the pitchers, Lynn and Gibson make sense as some end of the rotation/swing potential.