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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    There is certainly risk - but less than I think is being reported. For me the big thing is that you just don't get swings at 25 year old FAs that often. And I think the likelihood of completely crapping out relative to his AAV is not all that high.
  2. sk7326
    The only thing I'll offer is most autopsies of free agent shopping will look like this ... it's a sucker's game often, but it's also what we have
  3. sk7326
    Honestly, this is a place I'd be willing to offer Tim Anderson a 1/10 sort of thing.
  4. sk7326
    Yamamoto and Snell are the clear top 2 for sure. Snell one wishes just pitched more innings or he'd be an easy #1. Montgomery and Imanaga are similar in that they are 30 year olds who had their best seasons most recently. But the level of competition matters. Imanaga might end up being a better value than Montgomery from a $$/WAR perspective. But Montgomery is the slightly safer bet imo.
  5. sk7326
    Houck in particular would be really interesting.
  6. sk7326
    I do too - that said, I think his role is pretty easy to replace.
  7. sk7326
    Good: Devers (and will get better), Whitlock (if he just pitches out of the bullpen), Martin (though a regression candidate) Meh: Story (underwater so far, but won't take much to be neutral), Jansen (while I am philosophically against spending lots of money on a 1-inning closer, Jansen has been fine) Bad: Yoshida (though if his bat develops, it won't be too bad) Ugly: Sale (we knew the arm was wobbly when they re-upped him, and of course he has been victim to every issue this side of Bubonic Plague - but if he is a 3 win pitcher this year, it becomes more tolerable)
  8. sk7326
    I think this is overcomplicating things. Boston is a big market with fans who support it - and put more $$ into that than any other fans in the game. They want the Red Sox to act like a big market team. The team was slightly above league average spend this year - and have been particularly cheap in the area that the team is most deficient (pitching). Now there is plenty of time in this FA season - and still a lot of good pitchers left, so this can all change. But it is 3 seasons in a row, the team has not been pro-active in improving the team. Fans - given the Red Sox resources (basically as good as anybody not named the Dodgers), this team should always be in the mix, and right now this would be the 2nd straight season where that is not the case.
  9. sk7326
    I actually do think he believes that - he just hates participating in a seller's market.
  10. sk7326
    Devers AAV is 18th in the league. Great. BOS owns its own TV distribution and has very little stadium debt, with basically no real ceiling for what they can charge for tickets. Based on most recent estimate, their TV deal is basically right in line with the Yankees. I mean, the Sox are the 3rd most valuable franchise in the league. We do have a ways to go. What I push back on is the "longer term" vs "instant gratification" thing ... casting this as an either/or deal when for Boston it really should be a both/and one.
  11. sk7326
    The house of cards characterization is a little weird given the quality of the young position players.
  12. sk7326
    Yeah. This is an area where my NBA fandom sort of gets in. I always looked at 2018 as a window that you hold open as much as you can - superstars in their prime etc etc etc ... now maybe resigning Sale was the nod to that (they'd argue that) but it was more stagnant than always moving forward.
  13. sk7326
    I question the premise of whether the top 2 or 3 went bonkers. That would imply they are taking ginormous financial losses and there is no evidence that is the case. The industry is doing very very well. Again, management chargest the highest prices in the game - fans rightly expect that the ballclub and the spending choices reflect that. Are the Red Sox fulfilling that? Clearly we disagree. There is no righteous moral cause to not paying for talent. It is particularly striking now where they need to add pitching because they don't have the pitching.
  14. sk7326
    The Red Sox found a way to both spend a decent amount of money while being cheap at the same time.
  15. sk7326
    Fans who pay more have a right to expect more. Yes. It's not lunacy when the industry is drowning in cash. I don't believe the Red Sox are entitled to a title or anything. But consumers of the Red Sox are charged higher prices than any other consumer base by any other team, and so fans rightly have higher expectations of the product. The team does not have to spend more than anybody else, but it is not wrong for consumers to expect that Boston act like a big market team, to be in on big free agents, to retain good players in their primes, all of that. Fans should expect that the Red Sox would take a deadweight contract as a fair price to get a premium asset - heck, sometimes that deadweight contract becomes a World Series MVP - and to push their weight around smartly. Fans should rightly get upset when Sox management scolds them for wanting nice things.
  16. sk7326
    Yes - and they had strong contingencies for most of them. The current era basically let Betts and Bogaerts leave without a real replacement plan.
  17. sk7326
    Because this fan base pays more than any other.
  18. sk7326
    The 2002-2013 was much better to be a Red Sox fan. It's not close. And that's even setting aside the specific nature of 2004 (the most emotionally satisfying title any team has won ever). That said, I do understand your feelings about the Dodgers the last decade. That used to be us - a fertile farm system to produce our stars along with deep pocketed ownership who filled in the gaps. It's nice to have a team always in the mix - and frankly Boston fans deserve that given the outlay etc.
  19. sk7326
    It is the nature that most of the big contracts can be losers. Of the list here, Porcello and Bogaerts were wins. The others were outright bad to "good process, bad results". And - to be fair - I do think a lot of the complaints about the lack of spending is also not retaining good players. As far as my own entitled bellyaching - it has principally been about cutting bait after 2019 instead of building on a pretty good core.
  20. sk7326
    Pulling back a bit on spending is one thing - but they also had Papi around, and Pedroia and Youk taking big league jobs and doing it at a star level. I mean, under Theo they had playoff caliber teams every single season. What bewilders fans now is that Henry effectively did a slow motion 1997 Marlins with the 2018 Red Sox.
  21. sk7326
    Agreed. I put it this way. You need (particularly if you are Boston or NYY or LA or one of the big kids on the block) to have a pathway to success at all the positions. Now I get, say, not signing an Alex Verdugo level OF to give some playing time to a youngin who you think could be very good, and then maybe using the deadline to shore things up if you made the wrong call. But I don't like the idea of punting on making your team better.
  22. sk7326
    True. That said, even 80-90% of his defense at shortstop combined with a .250/.320/.800 sort of line is a darn good player and flirts with All Star consideration if the counting stats are there.
  23. sk7326
    Story was not my favorite choice but I had no problem with it, particularly with the idea of him transitioning to 2B - which was the theory before they lost Boegarts. Really with him it has been all about health. The path to him being a 3 win player (a reasonable breakeven estimate) is at least pretty straightforward. 1. Appear in games 2. Be an average hitter I mean last year he managed to produce 0.8 bWAR despite being useless with the bat. And he is a central reason the spine of the defense has a chance to be above average next season which would be a vast improvement on whatever they did in 2023. And I do think there was pathway to 90 wins with that team entering 2022. The problem came down to some pitching regression and the corner bats being terrible.
  24. sk7326
    While he might not want to join the madmen up top ... he does like winning. And he has seen the fan apathy. As we've discussed before - fans want hope, and Boston fans want a bit more than that. 2023 and 2024 are the two years of his ownership where there is (at least right now) the least amount of ex ante hope for the ballclub's success. That will only get fixed with shoring up the pitching to some degree or another.
  25. sk7326
    The Padres chased blind a bit for sure .. the thing is the Soto trade ... which they had to make because of the TV deal going belly up, might end up leaving them a bit better balanced.
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