sk7326

Because this fan base pays more than any other.

The 2002-2013 was much better to be a Red Sox fan. It's not close. And that's even setting aside the specific nature of 2004 (the most emotionally satisfying title any team has won ever). That said, I do understand your feelings about the Dodgers the last decade. That used to be us - a fertile farm system to produce our stars along with deep pocketed ownership who filled in the gaps. It's nice to have a team always in the mix - and frankly Boston fans deserve that given the outlay etc.

It is the nature that most of the big contracts can be losers. Of the list here, Porcello and Bogaerts were wins. The others were outright bad to "good process, bad results". And - to be fair - I do think a lot of the complaints about the lack of spending is also not retaining good players. As far as my own entitled bellyaching - it has principally been about cutting bait after 2019 instead of building on a pretty good core.

Pulling back a bit on spending is one thing - but they also had Papi around, and Pedroia and Youk taking big league jobs and doing it at a star level. I mean, under Theo they had playoff caliber teams every single season. What bewilders fans now is that Henry effectively did a slow motion 1997 Marlins with the 2018 Red Sox.

Agreed. I put it this way. You need (particularly if you are Boston or NYY or LA or one of the big kids on the block) to have a pathway to success at all the positions. Now I get, say, not signing an Alex Verdugo level OF to give some playing time to a youngin who you think could be very good, and then maybe using the deadline to shore things up if you made the wrong call. But I don't like the idea of punting on making your team better.

True. That said, even 80-90% of his defense at shortstop combined with a .250/.320/.800 sort of line is a darn good player and flirts with All Star consideration if the counting stats are there.

Story was not my favorite choice but I had no problem with it, particularly with the idea of him transitioning to 2B - which was the theory before they lost Boegarts. Really with him it has been all about health. The path to him being a 3 win player (a reasonable breakeven estimate) is at least pretty straightforward. 1. Appear in games 2. Be an average hitter I mean last year he managed to produce 0.8 bWAR despite being useless with the bat. And he is a central reason the spine of the defense has a chance to be above average next season which would be a vast improvement on whatever they did in 2023. And I do think there was pathway to 90 wins with that team entering 2022. The problem came down to some pitching regression and the corner bats being terrible.

While he might not want to join the madmen up top ... he does like winning. And he has seen the fan apathy. As we've discussed before - fans want hope, and Boston fans want a bit more than that. 2023 and 2024 are the two years of his ownership where there is (at least right now) the least amount of ex ante hope for the ballclub's success. That will only get fixed with shoring up the pitching to some degree or another.

The Padres chased blind a bit for sure .. the thing is the Soto trade ... which they had to make because of the TV deal going belly up, might end up leaving them a bit better balanced.

A lot of this comes down to whether O'Neill can play more than one outfield position. I don't know if he is a starter, but with Yoshida, Duran, Casas taking up some of those corner/DH positions, having a right handed bat is not a bad idea. It would have been nice to have Verdugo AND O'Neill as a right handed platoon partner. Given who got traded and O'Neill's own salary - the downside is pretty small ... and he doesn't block any of the Red Sox OF prospects if they make ML level leaps.

Sox trading for Tyler O'Neill per multiple reports

Kind of a shrug emoji ... his arm fell off ... when it didn't he was good, if not a staff ace. He was also a workhorse when his arm was attached to his body.

Yeah. Now what I will say for OAA is that it is coming from a better dataset (Statcast tracking) then we've had in the past. You are right - gotta look at the big picture on the metrics, but OAA is working from a better starting point.

Yes, though you figure the 7 years is one of those "let's slide under the luxury" tax sort of business.

Yeah. It looks like the industry is waiting for Yamamoto to orient the rest of the market.

Definitely has been a minute since he wasn't a pure hot taker Both David Schoenfeld (ESPN) and Keith Law (Athletic) thought the deal was even enough ... Sox get some bullpen-ish arms for a guy they might very well have non-tendered, and the Yankees get a guy who could be valuable if you can find a platoon partner.

Oh yeah. What is particularly sad is that the two moves the Sox made were - on the surface - not crazy. Youk was a 5 win player who had handled 3B before. And Adrian Gonzalez was arguably the best 1B in the league. But both players - after good 2011s, fell off cliffs. Youk's body fell apart in particular. Youk's collapse is one of the big developments that was a real gut punch to the team's plans for a bit there.

The Marlins thing proved that when a team goes to near the bottom of the league in payroll hilarity ensues - it's why Tampa is special. Now I think what an analysis like this misses is whether Dombrowski is particularly unique in how the teams did when the rebuild was on ... and the evidence is fairly weak one way or the other. My main objection to Dombrowski's firing was that he was fired essentially for doing exactly what the owner wanted him to do when they hired him. I wouldn't call the 3 years of Dombrowski the best in my lifetime as a Sox fan - but I am also spoiled. 2003-2005 and 2007-2009 both do very nicely.

That could work. But i do think travel reasons can justify divisions. If the league expanded again and went to four 8-team divisions, then I think that would be a solid equlibrium. (10 games in division, 6 games out of division, 3 games against half of interleague, 4 games against rest of interleague)

It went okay with the Expos back in the day. And while he was not around to see the finale, the players he got in the Marlins tear down figured prominently in the 2003 title team. I do think Henry pulled the rug out from under him in 2019. But the "we need to keep trying to win titles" vs "we need to sell this team off" rift could have been a dealbreaker.

I wouldn't either - though I wish Bello got more swing and miss. Cease is a bet on peripherals, and I'd like more certainty if I were moving somebody like Bello - who is at worst a mid rotation starter with lots of team control.

Yeah. And the chaos of baseball is part of the fun. That said, I think there would be fewer complaints if they realigned to two divisions per league and 4 wildcards. And the idea of a ghost win in the division series is interesting to me.

It has worked out that way. That said, if fans look at the Yankees and Dodgers as Red Sox peers and the constant pursuit for more (true in the Dodgers case, less so in the NYY) I can't blame them ... particularly when the best players on the team were in fact not old.

Yes. That said, looking at McAdam's reporting - the White Sox wanted Bello as part of a deal for Cease which is hard to stomach. That said, I am receptive to the idea of trading Bello if you feel like his top end is more low end #2/good #3 - and a premium arm is available. But with Cease, the attraction is the contract and betting on peripherals. As far as the FA market goes - I think it's clear that not much is going to happen until Yamamoto moves. The Sox are in on him by all accounts, so I expect news to be very slow there.

I think all of these motives are unfair. Henry wants to win. But I do think there is a moral position about spending which does not jive with what the industry is doing. Hard business rules like "I won't give a 75 year contract to anybody" means you are not competitive for some of the best free agents. I do think he has gotten stuck there. Moreover, I always go back to 2019 - the decision by the organization to NOT look at the team and its core as an opportunity for a multi-title window, and then once you make that decision, not being more proactive in moving Betts. Bloom did a solid job rebuilding the farm - but either he on his own, or the franchise via budgeting completely ignored pitching that would have likely made a different for the 2023 team. Why that is is a mystery. I think about the Sox situation more at a 30,000 foot level. The post 2020 teams are the first ones since Harrington ran the team where there was not great ex ante hope for a 90 win team (the 2021 team was a surprise). At this second 2024 is going to be another one. And that is hard to swallow as one of the big kids on the block.