sk7326

Every team in the majors has had a 2-game losing streak this season. Compared to the NBA (for instance), there is no real way to create a team that is immune to that. I've seen 83 and 85 win world champions. There is clutch play, but a lot of it is just the goofiness of baseball that we love. I mean Toronto allowed 5 runs in 2 games ... they did just about everything right, but the Twins pitchers were just a little better. There isn't much Toronto could do. The Brewers were the best pitching staff in baseball and they are going home.

The baseball playoffs make no sense - and that's why it's awesome.

Overall the contract was frustrating though given the market for starters, that you got 1.5 very good seasons out of it made it more "meh" than a tire fire of a deal. I would have preferred to roll the dice with him than the Kluber-sort of flotsam. We knew that whatever innings Nate gave were probably going to be good.

Whatever bump he got this year from last year WAR wise was entirely due to defense. Now, I do think a useful rule of thumb is that an X win player whose wins were built on offense is .. well, a more reliable measurement than an X win player whose wins were built on defense. While there has been tons of work done on measuring defensive value, it will always have larger error bars than offense.

Yes. A good way to think about replacement level would be ... oh I don't know .. Bobby Dalbec. He's not really good enough to be a real big leaguer, but he can play in a pinch. I believe based both fangraphs and bbref reached an agreement on how to interpret replacement level that way. Now, I am not sure of the details - but a good rule of thumby way to look at it is that a team made up entirely of replacement players would be expected to be a real major league team, but the worst one in the league. Let's say 50 wins. So the Orioles ended up with (as a team) 16 combined WAR from pitching and 28 WAR from the position hitting/defense. That 44 WAR if you add to 50 gets you 94 wins, and their pythagorean record was 94-68 Atlanta 39.2 WAR from hitting/defense, 16.2 WAR from pitching = 55.4 combined WAR ... 105 wins ... their run differential speaks to 101 pythagorean wins Red Sox 17.2 pitching WAR, 19.1 batting/def WAR ... 86 wins ... pythagorean 81 wins. Oakland 0.0 pitching WAR, 11.2 batting WAR ... 61 wins ... 49 pythagorean wins So this is not exact, but you get the rough idea. So, looking at bbref. The median team in 2023 was about 18 WAR from batting/fielding. That ends up to about 2 WAR per player/season. If you back out 10% for what seems to me to be a fair number of rest days or whatever (so 146 starts) that gets you to about 1.8 WAR for a full season starter as an average position player/DH. 0.5 WAR (whatever flavor) sucks - assuming we are talking about a large number of plate appearances. Basically it means that means you are only slightly better than any ole Rick Lancelotti/Crash Davis type of up-and-down guy.

The lesson of the Rays-Rangers series is ... 0.5 a run a game simply ain't enough. Tip your hat to Eovaldi. We all know the deal with Nate - if his arm stays attached to his body, he's one of the better pitchers out there.

the other thing was that it was not the first time Grady left him in too long in a deciding game THAT POSTSEASON. It happened against the A's in the ALDS.

George Kirby in Seattle said postgame this was a salute to Wake

I can see that - but Scott Williamson was very good in the postseason up to that point. And Grady had a lot of wiggle room with a 3 run lead.

The first man on the most beloved team of my life ... the 2004 Red Sox ... to pass away. And of course, he is one of the N-1 members of that team, for whom this news breaks my heart.

The thing between 2013 and 2014 was that they lost two 6-win players ... Ellsbury going to NY and Victorino turning into a pumpkin ... without any juice replacing them. I do think that replacing Bobby Valentine with a normal human being helped - but a reversal of injury luck played at least as big a role. But the larger point is - Cora has done a nice job overall here. I don't see a case where he has squandered a roster. Now the Sox going in another direction is not some wild injustice ... but Cora will have plenty of suitors.

So you're saying the Mookie trade was ... bad? I did not know that. Pivetta but a bit better would be about a 3 win starter ... and if we had a couple of 3 win starters, this team would have been alive for a postseason bid most likely.

We know Cora's contract runs out next year. And we know that the org likes him, and we know that he is able to work with the baseball research staff - and the Red Sox are going to still be heavily into data no matter who gets hired. I think Bloom came here intending to do a good job - and he did what management wanted him to do. Management did not want to take the PR hit for its priorities so Bloom is gone. Nature of the bidness.

If they could get an "ace" sort of pitcher it would help. But I agree in general - what the team needs is at least two #3ish starters (say, what Bello did this year). We need Pivetta's reliability with a better pitcher.

Given how short the terms on the deals were - I am going to guess there was some organizational pressure to not take on longer term.

Yes. And as it turns out - you need pitchers to field a baseball team! Whoops.

Devers has not been great this season, but he has been a 5 win player before and is a doddering 26. This team is not as good as a 108 win team. Stop the presses.

Or you look at whatever his top lieutenant is. Hazen turned the Sox down - but both Sawadye and Jason McLeod would make sense also.

Someone is being kind!

This is the big question that ownership has to answer and adjust its own priors. It's the most reactive ownership in the league. But maybe ownership has learned its lesson there, who knows.

Mr. Bloody Sock outed it without anybody's permission. Easily the single worst person I have ever rooted for in my 956 years as a sportsball fan.

Chris Antonetti has been mentioned. He has turned down chances to leave Cleveland before. But if the Red Sox want to rebuild their organizational pitching - you're not going to do better than Cleveland.

Maybe. But remember that Cora was the choice of multiple front office regimes here. He's just incredibly respected in the industry.

This attitude has always fascinated me. After 2004 ... which is almost certainly the sweetest title any fan base could have ever won in the sweetest way it could have possibly been won ... the idea of eeyore Red Sox fans who predated that just boggles my mind. I mean, I know they are out there clearly ... but it's still mind boggling.

i think i had an old baseball card with him from his cubs tour