sk7326
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Everything posted by sk7326
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Also the $14 is a projection. After all, he got cut. It is certainly possible he gets significantly less than $14M as a base salary.
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That makes sense to me. I might subsitute Merrifield with Anderson on a prove-it deal. I wouldn't call myself bullish on either player - but I would not be surprised if Anderson bounced back some. He was arguably the worst regular in the league last year which seems flukish to me. Yamamoto is my top target - even with a bit more risk, 25 year olds are not hitting the open market. I would be surprised if Nola did not return to Philadelphia though it's certainly possible. I mean a 7/200 meal for Yamamoto means he is still just 32 at the end of it.
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Fair enough. I use OBP because it is the much more important side of the OPS equation ... and there is almost no combination of defense and power where a sub .300 OBP guy is a big league corner. Either way, he is the consummate 4A player.
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For me, Yamamoto is the top pitching option if he gets posted ... the posting fee will be bananas, but the player's contract will be almost certainly a bargain. There is definitely a lower floor, but you are getting a 25 year old starter with Top 3 rotation upside at a minimum. Tim Anderson on a prove-it deal might make sense for 2B.
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Dalbec did not have an OBP above .300 in any month before August. Basically his uptick coincided with not having to face righties anymore. And of course, being this miserable against right-handed pitchers means you can't be a big league starter.
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Yeah - I mean Dalbec really took off at the end of 2021 after he got a high level platoon partner - and I don't think the plan to see if he could hit righties was necessarily terrible, but the evidence was against it. He might still be able to stick in the league as the smaller half of a platoon, but that's about it.
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
sk7326 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I remember Chris Young as an All-Ivy Center for Princeton basketball. -
Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
sk7326 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
I imagine it was like a lot of businesses - the pandemic shifted to a remote environment, and then it just stayed that way. -
We also know Rafaela has some real pop in the bat for a teeny tiny guy. Can he make enough contact (let's just dispense with the idea we are expecting him to walk a whole lot) to keep his glove out there? I think it's certainly possible.
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It could - but frankly I am more interested now in ripping the band-aid off and seeing what you have instead of more half-measures. If the team brings in a stud though that is a different calculus.
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One of the useful things from the statcast data is also seeing exactly how many outs above average there are in general - the spread. We know these positions are not all equal. Casas is bad at 1st - but the road to "good enough" is not all that diffcult. Kike is an interesting case - went from one of the best CFs in the game in 2021 to middle of the pack in 2022.
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There is a Jimmies and Joes thing. But I also wonder whether the shift rules impeded some of the ways the team could wallpaper over the issue. That said, Bogaerts this year was roughly the same as he was last year by Statcast data. Same with Dansby Swanson at the top of the list.
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
sk7326 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Can you find Chaim Bloom highlights on youtube? -
He was a top 15 prospect entering the season, held that midseason and is one of the youngest regulars in Double-A. His stock is just fine. It only looks bad when compared to Roman Anthony who might be THE youngest regular at the level.
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Looking at the Success Rate Added via Statcast Data 1B: Triston Casas, 33rd out of 37 qualified 2B: Christina Arroyo, 26th out of 40 SS: Nobody Qualified on roster ... Kike Hernandez, 35th out of 35 3B: Rafael Devers, 31st out of 36 LF: Masataka Yoshida, 33rd out of 35 CF: Jarren Duran, 34th out of 38 (Adam Duvall 38th out of 38) RF: Alex Verdugo, 12th out of 36 So that is a grand total of 1 player who was above the median in Statcast metrics The middle infield in particular - to give some perspective 2022 - Bogaerts was 14th at SS, Story was 2nd at 2B. So the middle infield went from pretty good to pee-you.
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Well, if Story is just any sort of healthy that means one of the middle infield positions will be above average to plus. Casas will likely be better at 1B - if nothing else because he probably can't be worse. I could see a world where Rafaela is at 2B and Story at SS, and that would probably be solid, even if I think Rafaela is best optimized at CF.
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1. Given the shoulder injury, I am not sure the Sox would get the sort of return that Mayer would justify if the shoulder is healthy. I don't think they trade him until during the 2024 season at all just on that basis. 2. Can you get a top 20 starter for him with some control? If so, yeah you consider it. But Reynolds and Bednar or Keller seems like selling low. 3. Ultimately, "Full speed ahead" really has to be focused on throwing money at pitching. The franchise has to take its medicine there after all the neglect on the run prevention side. While they need a decent corner OF or two, I almost want to just give a runway for the kiddos as much as possible.
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Casas is the best option we have. That said, it will be hard to move past Henderson and Bibee.
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Further down the list, for a RHB someone like Teoscar Hernandez could make sense as a bounceback play.
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The Athletic's Top 20 FAs ... a bad class for position players, for depth pitchers fairly interesting 1. Shoehei Otani, RHP/DH, 29 years old for 2024 season 2. Cody Bellinger, CF/1B, 28 3. Aaron Nola, RHP, 31 4. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, RHP (NPB), 25 5. Sonny Gray, RHP, 33 6. Jordan Montgomery, LHP, 31 7. Blake Snell, LHP, 31 8. Eduardo Rodriguez, LHP, 31 9. Matt Chapman, 3B, 31 10. Lee Jung-hoo, CF (KBO), 25 11. Shota Imanaga, LHP (NPB), 30 12. Kyle Hendricks, RHP, 34 13. Max Kepler, OF, 31 14. Jeimer Candelario, 3B, 30 15. Rhys Hopkins, 1B, 31 16. Jorge Soler, OF, 32 17. Seth Lugo, RHP, 34 18. Mike Clevinger, RHP, 33 19. Kevin Kiermayer, CF, 34 20. Michael Wacha, RHP, 32
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Craig Breslow hired as Head Of Baseball Operations
sk7326 replied to Tedballgame's topic in Boston Red Sox Talk
Bloom has been in baseball forever - and he was tabbed in the industry as a rising star for a very long time. Playing experience is a non-issue here ... or more to the point, being an ex-player is not fairy dust in handling players or not. It just likely that Bloom's interpersonal skills were meh in general. What is definitely true is that his public-facing skills were bad - and while it sounds shallow, it IS an important part of the gig. -
probably should have looked at trading him this past one
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Napoli was excellent. Drew was solid defensively. They absolutely had good fortune there. But the biggest part of it was that Pedroia and Ellsbury were both healthy enough to be 5+ win players and Victorino of course was nuts. And Lester and Lackey were able to be a legitimately good 1-2 starting rotation, which they had been starved for.
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Right. There were lots of reasons for 2011. But the biggest was the team flat ran out of pitchers. They were also decimated by injuries in 2012. 2013 in a lot of ways was as simple as their best players actually playing games and then an out of nowhere MVP-caliber season out of Victorino.
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Sure - why I used "best team". I'll let Yankees fans stand up for other teams.