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sk7326

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Everything posted by sk7326

  1. sk7326
    Pretty much. Bull Durham is very very good - I always thought it had the rhythms of what it must be like to actually play down. (with some comic effect of course) I think Shelton (the director) played minor league ball and it shows.
  2. sk7326
    If they add a couple of premium arms, the equation changes. But the case for this team being back will be the young position players blossoming, so we'll see there.
  3. sk7326
    I think they were - but the ceiling is considerably less than the situation the decade before. After all, the 2015 team had Bogaerts and Mookie as a combined 10 wins of player. There were more green shoots. Now, 2024 might have some green shoots - but we'll see. I tend to throw 2020 out the window for sample size reasons. 2022 I think injuries were significant, though really the difference between 76 and 88 wins. The players we are dreaming on now are just not as good as the 2012-2015 editions.
  4. sk7326
    I do think there IS a lesson there - in that the Rangers went and got good players when they were available, and did not time it. Like the Red Sox decided - whether it be ownership or the baseball ops - to sign the top rated UFAs in two seasons where the top of the class just wasn't particularly good. (Crawford in 2011, Ramirez/Sandoval in 2015) Those were seasons you'd like to sit out - but they were also the seasons that the Red Sox decided "we must go shopping NOW".
  5. sk7326
    Get the damn pitchers. I think Story, a functional 2B and their outfield options, the defense should be at least average ... just a little bit of run prevention could go a long way.
  6. sk7326
    I think the team cannot avoid bringing in pitching from the outside because they simply don't have any. They are a slightly above average payroll team - so there is budget room. I mean last year's club with any sort of reliable run prevention, would have likely been in the wild card soup. So I don't think the pathway is that long. Put another way, if we add some decent pitching and upgrade out defense from "actively harmful" to "fine" - we should be in the postseason mix, even if it is the wildcard kind. Now, I do think the team should be hesitant to make a ton of long term commitments to position players. First, it's not a very good group of position players now that Ohtani is off the market. Second, I do want to give runway for the kids we do have to take positions.
  7. sk7326
    In terms of wins, yes - in terms of hope, less so. I mean 2012 was a disappointment because of injuries, underperformance, and Bobby V's existence. 2013 was a bit of a fluke, though a lot of it came from the Red Sox getting good seasons from their actual stars. Victorino was a miracle, but the rest of it was just folks being healthy. And health was important in the 2014 situation. 2015 included the addition of two huge free agents who were both awful. There were mistakes, and struggles but the team was pretty proactive and each of those seasons had some reasonable ex ante hope. The issue with 2022-23 in particular is the lack of visible ceiling for the ballclub.
  8. sk7326
    Such is life in acquiring pitching. I mean David Price was one of the most durable pitchers in the majors - until he wasn't. All you can do is get the medical people's sign off and hope.
  9. sk7326
    I think so ... not to give them too much credit.
  10. sk7326
    There is certainly risk - but less than I think is being reported. For me the big thing is that you just don't get swings at 25 year old FAs that often. And I think the likelihood of completely crapping out relative to his AAV is not all that high.
  11. sk7326
    The only thing I'll offer is most autopsies of free agent shopping will look like this ... it's a sucker's game often, but it's also what we have
  12. sk7326
    Honestly, this is a place I'd be willing to offer Tim Anderson a 1/10 sort of thing.
  13. sk7326
    Yamamoto and Snell are the clear top 2 for sure. Snell one wishes just pitched more innings or he'd be an easy #1. Montgomery and Imanaga are similar in that they are 30 year olds who had their best seasons most recently. But the level of competition matters. Imanaga might end up being a better value than Montgomery from a $$/WAR perspective. But Montgomery is the slightly safer bet imo.
  14. sk7326
    Houck in particular would be really interesting.
  15. sk7326
    I do too - that said, I think his role is pretty easy to replace.
  16. sk7326
    Good: Devers (and will get better), Whitlock (if he just pitches out of the bullpen), Martin (though a regression candidate) Meh: Story (underwater so far, but won't take much to be neutral), Jansen (while I am philosophically against spending lots of money on a 1-inning closer, Jansen has been fine) Bad: Yoshida (though if his bat develops, it won't be too bad) Ugly: Sale (we knew the arm was wobbly when they re-upped him, and of course he has been victim to every issue this side of Bubonic Plague - but if he is a 3 win pitcher this year, it becomes more tolerable)
  17. sk7326
    I think this is overcomplicating things. Boston is a big market with fans who support it - and put more $$ into that than any other fans in the game. They want the Red Sox to act like a big market team. The team was slightly above league average spend this year - and have been particularly cheap in the area that the team is most deficient (pitching). Now there is plenty of time in this FA season - and still a lot of good pitchers left, so this can all change. But it is 3 seasons in a row, the team has not been pro-active in improving the team. Fans - given the Red Sox resources (basically as good as anybody not named the Dodgers), this team should always be in the mix, and right now this would be the 2nd straight season where that is not the case.
  18. sk7326
    I actually do think he believes that - he just hates participating in a seller's market.
  19. sk7326
    Devers AAV is 18th in the league. Great. BOS owns its own TV distribution and has very little stadium debt, with basically no real ceiling for what they can charge for tickets. Based on most recent estimate, their TV deal is basically right in line with the Yankees. I mean, the Sox are the 3rd most valuable franchise in the league. We do have a ways to go. What I push back on is the "longer term" vs "instant gratification" thing ... casting this as an either/or deal when for Boston it really should be a both/and one.
  20. sk7326
    The house of cards characterization is a little weird given the quality of the young position players.
  21. sk7326
    Yeah. This is an area where my NBA fandom sort of gets in. I always looked at 2018 as a window that you hold open as much as you can - superstars in their prime etc etc etc ... now maybe resigning Sale was the nod to that (they'd argue that) but it was more stagnant than always moving forward.
  22. sk7326
    I question the premise of whether the top 2 or 3 went bonkers. That would imply they are taking ginormous financial losses and there is no evidence that is the case. The industry is doing very very well. Again, management chargest the highest prices in the game - fans rightly expect that the ballclub and the spending choices reflect that. Are the Red Sox fulfilling that? Clearly we disagree. There is no righteous moral cause to not paying for talent. It is particularly striking now where they need to add pitching because they don't have the pitching.
  23. sk7326
    The Red Sox found a way to both spend a decent amount of money while being cheap at the same time.
  24. sk7326
    Fans who pay more have a right to expect more. Yes. It's not lunacy when the industry is drowning in cash. I don't believe the Red Sox are entitled to a title or anything. But consumers of the Red Sox are charged higher prices than any other consumer base by any other team, and so fans rightly have higher expectations of the product. The team does not have to spend more than anybody else, but it is not wrong for consumers to expect that Boston act like a big market team, to be in on big free agents, to retain good players in their primes, all of that. Fans should expect that the Red Sox would take a deadweight contract as a fair price to get a premium asset - heck, sometimes that deadweight contract becomes a World Series MVP - and to push their weight around smartly. Fans should rightly get upset when Sox management scolds them for wanting nice things.
  25. sk7326
    Yes - and they had strong contingencies for most of them. The current era basically let Betts and Bogaerts leave without a real replacement plan.
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