sk7326

Yeah. I think Law put Sandlin in at #11 on the Sox prospects list ... the #1 pitcher in the system, and the only one with (as of this second) a reasonably likely path to being a starter.

Maybe. But Royals offered Boston the guy who is likely becomes Boston's #1 pitching prospect in the org for a middle reliever - that is a hard deal to turn down.

A good rule of thumb is to consider "replacement level" as basically a 40 win team or so ... so the ZIPS projections point to a .500ish team which seems about right

Honestly, Boston was 78-84 last year and I see no reason to think they are worse. The defense has the promise of at least being average, and the pitching has not backslid (though it has not improved). A lot depends on Story and some youngsters - but in the land of the 3 wild cards, not all THAT much has to go right to see October baseball. It'd be nice if one of the Boras pitchers shows up - even on a short deal, but I am not betting anything important on that.

Oh I think they are going to start him until he proves otherwise. He (sadly) immediately if the best starter prospect in the org.

I give him a lot of credit to improve to "fine" at SS - not plus, but not a minus and a very good player when you add the bat. But makes sense for him to move.

On paper this is a good deal Boston - trading Schreiber for a minor league prospect with some actual pathway to being a (back end but still) starter. Law's writeup (#7 in the Royals system) He is definitely a candidate to move quick, quicker still if it is the pen.

I dunno - he was 13th in Statcast OAA among qualified shortstops in 2022, 16th in 2023. He is moving to 2B this season because the Padres want to promote a guy. But Bogaerts worked hard to make himself an acceptable SS. I think one of the things that colors Bogaerts' time here is how became a very good player but a very different than was advertised as a prospect. Bogaerts vs Nomar is interesting in that Nomar had a bunch of true MVP-caliber seasons compared to Xander but he was done as a quality regular by age 29.

I actually agree with management that you need to give the kids a runway to take big league spots. Now, the not spending on the rotation is a different deal.

He needs to show he can just get through a season healthy. He was awful in AA last year, but he also showed up with a shoulder injury and was one of the youngest regulars in all of AA. I mean for as lost a season as it was last year, he is still a Top 25 prospect in the bigs.

Statcast Team OAA - the data starts in 2018 Sox ranks 2018: 11th 2019: 12th 2020: 20th 2021: 30th 2022: 22nd 2023: 30th There is a fair argument that 81 games at Fenway means you only really need the defense to be "good enough" - and that some bat over glove compromises are fine. But we are currently well, well, below that threshold.

Houck has been healthier. This is also a place where FIP and such can mislead just because Houck's workload is so tightly managed.

Ultimately this is what Breslow got the medium sized bucks for. Teams like Houston, Saint Louis, Tampa, Cleveland have found consistent ways to add and develop pitching. Can the Red Sox find a way to get the extra 10 scouting points of command. Like we know that Wikelman has the body and velocity to start - but can the coaches and analytics reliably get guys to repeat deliveries and find working third pitches. Even with a case like Wikelman, there is still a feasible path to at least get him to be a two times through starter.

The Athletic/Keith Law's list https://theathletic.com/5261710/2024/02/12/red-sox-2024-top-prospects-keith-law/ ... Law goes to 20 1. Marcelo Mayer, SS 2. Roman Anthony, OF/RF 3. Ceddane Rafaela, OF/2B 4. Kyle Teel, C 5. Miguel Bleis, OF 6. Wilyer Abreu, OF 7. Mikey Romero, SS - lost year. Law likes his approach, but has to stay healthy and show more pop. 8. Yoelin Cespedes, SS 9. Nick Yorke, 2B 10. Nazzan Zanatello, SS 11. Wikelman Gonzalez, RHP 12. Luis Perales, RHP 13. Yordanny Monegro, RHP 14. Johanfran Garcia, C 15. Blaze Jordan, 3B/iB 16. Richard Fitts, RHP 17. Edinson Paulino, SS/2B/3B 18. Brandon Walter, LHP 19. Chase Meidroth, 3B/2B 20. Bryan Mata, LHP Other notables - Nathan Hickey is a potential backup catcher with power and patience but below-average receiving and throwing, with a career caught-stealing rate of just 10 percent in the minors. - I thought the Sox reached a bit for shortstop Antonio Anderson in the third round last year, as the Georgia high school product had trouble hitting decent offspeed stuff as an amateur and his swing needed some work to shorten it up. He struck out a third of the time in his 46 PA pro debut. - I was pretty high on Brainer Bonaci coming out of the 2023 season, but he was placed on the restricted list in October for a violation of the league’s domestic violence, sexual assault, and child abuse policy. 2024 Impact - Rafaela and Abreu The Fallen - Matthew Lugo Sleeper - Cespedes

ESPN (Kiley McDaniel) Sox Prospect Rankings - 9th in depth (defined by players with at least some sort of rosterable projection)

Law ranks the Red Sox at #8

If the system had even one guy with a rotation-caliber projection things would look a lot better. Perales and Gonzalez at least have some mid-rotation upside, but they have to reach it. With Rafaela the question is whether he can hit enough. Can he be a .310 OBP guy with his ability to drive the ball ... combine that with his defense (particularly at CF) and you have a solid starter at least. Ultimately for him it comes down to whether he can lay off pitches outside the zone at all. He has a good swing - he just has to actually swing at things he can hit.

Each of the big evaluators are going to have their own areas of emphasis vis a vis floor and ceiling. If you assume a fairly straightforward tiering of guys ... star-starter-bench ... the top orgs probably have the starter section pretty well stocked. The Sox being lower in the number of guys who project as everyday guys being upper middle of the back seems plausible. What holds Boston back is not so much the lack of balance per se - but that the pitching crop (as of now) is providing almost no top/mid rotation pitching which I think would be the equivalent of a "everyday regular" for a position player.

probably have to put joe mccarthy there somewhere

https://theathletic.com/5245693/2024/02/05/top-100-mlb-prospects-2024-keith-law/ blurbs Mayer Anthony Rafaela Teel Bleis

It is good to have options. But where this team is, you keep the guys you think can be stars and trade guys on the next tier. I don't think Yorke is the centerpiece of a trade for a #1/#2 starter - but he does have value as a near ML-ready regular, and with all of that team control. To me, Bleis is the one to trade simply because he is so far away - just a wider range of outcomes. But he might make a leap this year, his Statcast numbers are promising. And obviously Zanetello is a wild card - the sort of elite, elite traits and tools which could rocket through the system ... I do think the team is serious in the trade market. As far as FAs go, who knows - the top guys are all Boras dudes, so nobody is going to learn anything for a while one way or the other.

Yes. It only looks worse because he played through a hurt shoulder and Roman Anthony exists.

The big difference is the actual Nick Pivetta more or less maxes out at Nick Pivetta's production level. Giolito's top end is much higher - and we don't have to stretch too far in the time machine to see it.

The thing with Giolito is that he is a workhorse. Now, he is 29 - and his velocity has not dropped. But the strikeout rate has and the homerun rate has gone bananas. This is a case of whether Giolito and Bailey can fix what went haywire mechanically - because Giolito can still sling it. Giolito has been a 4 win pitcher as recently as 2021. Basically they are paying the sticker price for Nick Pivetta's production - with at least a low but plausible possibility there is a #2/#3 caliber starter in there. Obviously I want more for the rotation - but this is a perfectly good pickup.

From Law's breakdown of the trade and the Giolito pickup: https://theathletic.com/5170577/2023/12/30/law-chris-sale-trade-atlanta-boston/ ....