1. I don't think the Red Sox are conceding next year - and with the 3 Wild Cards they shouldn't (ever)
2. If Giolito is good, he will cost sticker price - but the Red Sox absolutely can (and should) pay it. It's not a super friendly deal for Boston, but if Giolito is good - $19M is a screaming bargain. Even if Giolito is just an innings sponge - it's not a good value for $19M but it is not debilitating.
obviously the team will miss Sale - he was still good when he was healthy. But he also once suffered a broken wrist while trying to type a Players Tribune article as to why the government wants us to be injected with Satan's DNA - so durability wasn't his strong suit.
I am still somewhat optimistic something shakes down with one of the good remaining pitchers. Of course, they are all Boras guys so things could be slooooooooooooooooooooow
Honestly - assuming Sale doesn't get attacked by locusts ... Sale, Bello, Giolito, Pivetta, Crawford is not where you want to be at the top of the rotation, but it should be average to a little above.
He will help. Most likely he is a mid-rotation guy. But there is a non-trivial (15-20%) he will be at least as good as Bello. If this is THE MOVE, boo ... but I do like the pickup.
I am actually kind of okay with turning over a lot of it to the kids - a lot of them are promising.
But - even then, we know the going rate for these things now. And if we want to keep the Anthony-Mayer-Abreu core together (if that is the core), you're going to have to pay a sticker price eventually or you just end up trading every good 28 year old player. The thing with being the Boston Bleeping Red Sox is that you should be able to make Mookie Betts type of decisions from a position of strength.
The McAdam piece was terrifying - if the team is not committed to the tax line as a minimum expectation, it is harrowing.
Worst still will be if they want to pinch pennies in general. Like Tampa - we know they have a low MLB payroll, but they also have the largest pro scouting staff in the league and they put a ton of money into scouting, coaching and analytics. The Dodgers (the ONLY team that actually has more revenue firepower than Boston) spend on all of it.
If the Red Sox want to be a team not as dependent on free agency, fine - but they then need to pour resources into scouting and development.
The length would have bothered me too - though it is increasingly the cost of doing business, especially if you want to get below the tax line. The thing with Nola is that he is an absolute workhorse in a league where that is increasingly rare - and there is some knockon benefit for the pitching staff there. And he was a 6 win player in 2022, and his history shows while it has been inconsistent, the high end stuff is pretty good.
Yeah. Ramirez and Sandoval were near the top of most of the FA Rankings ... Sandoval's utter collapse in particular was hard to predict. I was worried it would not be a good value, but I thought he would be a functional big leaguer.
In the past they've usually been able to manage the steps back some ... and add kids to the moving train successfully.
Now the Dodgers have shown that being able to have both ... the fertile farm system along with the "always be chasin" attitude at the big league level. The Red Sox since Theo left have not been able to strike that balance.
I think they will - well not go "all-in" on the kids, but everything they do position player wise will be short term in such a way as for the kids to be able to take jobs.
But I am still somewhat optimistic the team will add significant pitching just because they have to. And yeah, I think signing them is more sensible than trading given where the franchise is.
You have to worried there, I agree.
But it also looks like Montgomery, Snell and other starters in that tier are waiting for Yamamoto to go. Now, clearly some pitchers have taken the money and been happy. But I do think there is a Yamamoto-driven bottleneck here.
Of course. They are all legit. But it is fair to take the results of that season WAY less seriously than other seasons - particularly when it comes to last place finishes and so on.