Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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Folks that only look at ERA or ERA +/- will argue that Porcello only had one season for us, 2016, in which he was a $20 million pitcher.
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I think the bottom line is that the Dodgers clearly got a tidy pandemic discount.
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He might be having too much fun to retire until he really has to.
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I'm not so sure Mookie would have been open to the deferred money thing if negotiations weren't taking place during a pandemic.
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No, it's not that. The big deal is that in the last CBA they changed the rules so that present values would actually be calculated and AAV's would be based on present value. I think the first time any of us became aware of it was with Sale's extension.
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We're almost due for a Scott Boras tirade, methinks.
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Technically, the Dodgers deal pays him 7 million more, for 2 years more, if he's still playing at ages 39 and 40. But I'm inclined to think that if Mookie was really ready to negotiate a deal with the Sox they would have gone as high as 350 million maybe?
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I agree about 2018, but to be fair, we did win the division 3 years in a row so we had multiple shots at it, at least. The Dodgers signing of Mookie wouldn't be heralded as such a slam dunk win if they didn't win it this year. But his extension doesn't even start till next year, so that would be more a case of fans being fans.
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There is a much simpler way of expressing it: "A dollar today is worth more than a dollar tomorrow." Us accountants live by this principle. Always trying to defer tax liabilities and such.
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I do remember some talk about that. But let's look at the actual numbers. Porcello's extension was for 4/82.5 million. How much more than 82.5 million could he have expected to get on the free agent market, is the question. I can't imagine it was a huge amount. I think this might be a valid example, but that the differences involved were not very large.
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All this stuff is open for debate and there are no simple answers, because every strategy entails its own risks. In 2013, Ben did that mid level free agents thing, right? And it worked brilliantly, for one year. Victorino is a classic example. 3 years/39 million. He was fantastic for one year and useless for two. Good signing or not? I don't complain about it because he helped us get a ring. But if we didn't get the ring it would look pretty bad.
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The Red Sox are still paying Manny, I think. It's one of those things that usually only the accountants know about. Speaking of accountants, the lower AAV for the deferred money is of course based on present value discounting of future cash flows at an imputed interest rate.
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I get the philosophy too. I'm just not sure it's possible to put that particular one into practice.
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But in the history of free agency signings, are there any where it was reported that the player agreed to take a higher AAV for fewer years?
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We only know what's been reported, of course. Maybe something further did happen before the talks shut down.
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Maybe his counteroffer pissed them off or they interpreted it as a message that he simply wasn't interested in a price that was in their range. Keep in mind that he still had a full 2 years to free agency, so they were offering him security and hoping for a reduced price in return. Also, they had made other extension offers to him in the past that got no traction. Strange things happen in these negotiations. It was often asked why the Red Sox and Lester had no further discussions after their initial lowball offer of 4/$70 million.
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I believe the Red Sox FO, at their annual season-ending press conference after 2018, were talking about the future of the team and they said while they'd love to be able to keep all of Betts, Bogaerts and Sale, they didn't think they'd be able to keep all of them. I think they went to Mookie first, and based on his counter-offer they decided he was simply determined to go to free agency. This was in keeping with all Mookie's words and actions on the matter. Then they went to Sale and Bogaerts and got those extensions done. Seems perfectly simple and logical to me.
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So based on those hopes, you're feeling good about being a contender in 2021?
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As I assume you know, the same reports are that Mookie countered at $420 million, and that's where the talks ended.
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As currently constituted, the Yankees are a 33-27 team minus LeMahieu, Tanaka, Paxton and Happ.
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The extensions for Sale and Bogaerts weren't done until March, 2019. It seems extremely likely that the reported $300 million offer to Betts, which occurred that same offseason, would have occurred well before that.
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I think we've already discussed the possibility that the offers to Eovaldi and Sale came after the failed offer to Mookie. It actually makes more sense that way.
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So why do think they made the $300 million offer to Mookie? Just for looks? I've said many times that Henry has spent faithfully on the team. But the highest contract he's given out is Price's $217 million. Mookie's deal could have been 50-75% more than that. So that is definitely in new territory. Also, Henry does have a history of drawing a line. In the infamous A-Rod negotiations, the Sox balked when the Players Union insisted on an adjustment that was only about $12 million, IIRC. They let Pedro walk. Damon. J-Bay. And so on.
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You keep trying to spin it back to the same thing - that DD's overspending prevented us from keeping Mookie. The fact is that the Red Sox offered him $300 mill. I tend to think DD would have been in favor of offering more than that. When you get into those price ranges, the owners generally make the call.
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He's playing possum! Seriously though, it seems like a little too much was being read into Bloom's comments there. Not being in an 'all-in' mode right now is not the same thing as punting on 2021.
