Bellhorn04
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Everything posted by Bellhorn04
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The other premier trades were deadline deals. Dave Henderson Cabrera Eovaldi and Pearce
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I think those 4 are Mount Rushmore.
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Later to earn immortality with the Yankees as American Idle.
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Plus he's a dope. -
German was hardly awesome in 2019. He was a little above average.
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Sanchez is toast. Judge and Stanton can't stay on the field. If they lose LeMahieu and don't do much about the pitching, I think there's a good chance they suck.
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Everybody (except San Diego) is waiting on everybody else. Too many vultures and not enough predators.
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WAR is actually a counting stat, so on average, the more you play, the higher your WAR. As a result, an elite WAR for a reliever is only around 3 or so.
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FIP is the big difference-maker, I think. In 2020 Porcello's FIP was 3.33, his actual ERA was 5.64. He gave up 74 hits in 59 innings, but only 5 of them were homers. His BABIP was a fat .373. Basically he gave up a ton of singles.
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Porcello would make an interesting case study for the differences between fWAR and bWAR for pitchers. His career fWAR is 50% better than his bWAR. That's a hefty difference!
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But it's quite possible, even probable, that Porcello's physical makeup, preparation and pitching motion are the reasons for his durability.
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I think MLBTR said Springer has a couple of offers in hand over $100 mill, but that he's looking for something like $150 mill. We'll see where he settles.
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I'd go with Porcello because of his durability.
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You've gone into areas that don't exist in Old School. There's another one too: ERA can depend on the manager's philosophy on when to hook.
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Post-Prime Porcello is projected (say that five times fast) to have an fWAR of 1.9 in 177 innings in 2021. That's a dollar value of about $15 mill. I would gladly take him for $8-9 million.
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Post-prime = gradual regression, not instant death.
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From 2008 to 2012, Dempster's fWAR was never lower than 2.6. How did that make him project as a 4-5 starter? C'mon, go ahead and admit it: you think the FanGraphs values are bunk.
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The only good shuffleboard is the table version you find in drinking establishments, and best played while drinking copiously.
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Exactly. If you believe in FanGraphs methodology for pitchers, getting Porcello for $10 million or less should be a solid value.
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Another one for ya, moon, along the same lines. Ryan Dempster. You've often said how much you hated that signing. But if you look at Dempster's fWAR's for the preceding years with the Cubs, it was not a bad signing at all. Is it fair to say you don't really buy into the FanGraphs valuations?
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1) In 2020, he made $10 million. I highly doubt he'll be looking for much more than that-probably less, I'm guessing. 2) As you posted above, even in 2019, he was worth $14.2 million, and that was a 4-year low. So why are you so down on him?
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In times like these, I'm actually looking forward to his next blasting of the owners.
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moon, I'll pose this one to you directly. In 2020 Porcello had an fWAR of 1.7 in a 60 game season, equivalent to a 4.6 fWAR in a full season. So tell me again why you say he's no good any more?
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Porcello is one of those guys who almost always has a higher fWAR than bWAR. His advanced numbers always look better than his standard numbers. (That trend continued in 2020.) For his career he has a 4.40 ERA and a 98 ERA+. With the Red Sox, 4.43 ERA and 102 ERA+.
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I'm guessing a guy like Boras would much rather negotiate than play shuffleboard.
