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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    32 Ks and 4 BBs does not portend well.
  2. Bellhorn04
    Raffy's OBP of .331 is higher than his SLG of .327. Unusual.
  3. Bellhorn04
    That would include me. It's the most logical explanation for his continued struggles since mid-August.
  4. Bellhorn04
    I would agree that it's not a total crapshoot.
  5. Bellhorn04
    Yes, I think basically each time they expanded the playoffs they increased the crapshoot factor. It only makes sense. Teams that would have been on the sidelines in past years now have a shot if they get on a roll at the right time. No repeat winner since 2000. That seems to support the crapshoot theory...
  6. Bellhorn04
    When it comes to the crapshoot theory, opinions shouldn't even enter into it, really. We've got a ton of data to work with. I don't think it's a total crapshoot. But there have been a lot of crapshoot results, or crapshoot years like 2023.
  7. Bellhorn04
    One thing that is undeniable is that there have been some major crap shoot results in the playoffs. Arizona (-15 regular season run differential) knocking out the Dodgers (+207 regular season run differential) in 2023 and making it to the WS was one of the all time crap shoot results. And I realize that had a lot to do with the Dodgers pitching being decimated. But that's actually the point - that's exactly why it can be a crap shoot.
  8. Bellhorn04
    It was also just an 85 inning sample as a starter.
  9. Bellhorn04
    His WHIP last year was 1.35. Another team might give him a shot at starting, but that doesn't mean much.
  10. Bellhorn04
    Criswell has a career FIP of 4.44 and a WHIP of 1.45. He's a replacement level pitcher. He had a few good outings last year. But he's not good.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Criswell did OK last year but I wouldn't count on him for much more. He's just not very good (by MLB standards).
  12. Bellhorn04
    The 85-86 win projection looks very reasonable. Obviously we'd like to think we're better than that, but the games keep suggesting otherwise. OTOH we're only 1.5 games worse than the best record in the AL.
  13. Bellhorn04
    Mutual option is such a strange concept. It would be hilarious if not one of them has ever been accepted by both sides.
  14. Bellhorn04
    bWAR, what is it good for? It's very good for Ceddanne Rafaela!
  15. Bellhorn04
    To me the really bold part was trading away a young starting pitcher.
  16. Bellhorn04
    Breslow really shows some stones making a trade like that.
  17. Bellhorn04
    bWAR treats him vastly better. And thereby hangs a tale.
  18. Bellhorn04
    I don't really understand how a mutual option works.
  19. Bellhorn04
    Good to see Bello's lucky rabbit paw is still working. That's not a knock - he just seems to have a knack of getting good run support.
  20. Bellhorn04
    It's an indisputable fact that velocity and spin have increased a lot and everyone agrees it's put a lot more stress on pitcher's arms. And pitchers aren't getting all these surgeries just for fun. Nolan Ryan is not a good source because he was a freak of nature. That's a compliment. Looking at run scoring over the years is fair and would require a deeper dive.
  21. Bellhorn04
    60%? Crochet, Houck and Buehler have made their starts.
  22. Bellhorn04
    The problem is they throw a lot harder and put a lot more spin on the ball. Fitts reportedly added a couple MPH to his fastball since last year - but now he's injured.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Injured pitchers are a pretty commonplace issue these days.
  24. Bellhorn04
    Think that potential replacement might be Grissom?
  25. Bellhorn04
    Unfortunately I have to concede Splintered's point on this one. The Sox record has to be discounted for a relatively soft schedule, including all 7 of our 2025 games against the White Sox. Which doesn't mean the Sox aren't capable of playing better than they have so far.
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