Bellhorn04

The evidence does indicate a higher correlation between pitching and titles than it does between hitting and titles. But hearing the old adage 'pitching wins championships' is kind of aggravating when, as I mentioned, the teams with the very best pitching are missing the playoffs.

Oddly enough, the team that led the AL in ERA the last 4 years, 2008-2011, all missed the playoffs. And Oakland is on pace to make it 5 years in a row.

I think it depends on what happens the next couple of weeks. We have a tough schedule after the break. If we fall further back we could be sellers.

D for disappointing.

The MFY's are always good for a reality check, aren't they? They will bring out whatever fear exists in a pitcher.

Yeah, Mortensen is a long man/garbage man.

Right now that looks like the proverbial rearranging of deck chairs on the Titanic. Let him complete a season anyway IMO.

Ha ha...good stuff, jung. I have to say the Yankee series certainly straightened me out about the state of our starting pitching. It is indeed horrible. Beckett and Lester were brutal enough to convince me that this season is basically down the tubes. If they were ever going to step up, this was the time. Instead Beckett set the tone for the series by giving up an instant five-spot. The only thing I would quibble on is that I think good hitters do get some of their hits on pitches that aren't mistakes. They might be 'strategic' mistakes but I mean pitches that are thrown exactly like the pitcher intended, but get whacked. Some of those would be pitches where the hitter guesses right on what's coming.

Yeah, just have the surgery and get it over with. Nava's numbers are tumbling but his OBP is still 100 points higher than Carl's was last year.

That's right. But why say it in 10 words when we can say it in 10,000?

Ortiz is not a sloth. He is one of the two or three best hitters in the league. Our offence this year would be brutal without him. Ciriaco is fun to watch, absolutely, keep him up. The thing is you need a middle of the order bat to drive in guys like Ciriaco. Gonzalez has not been that guy this year and who knows when he will be again. We have no idea what Lavarnway can produce at the MLB level. He only has 7 homers this year at Pawtucket. That doesn't bode well for him being the next Manny/Ortiz slugger. I realize I'm not speaking for everyone when I say the team would be unwatchable without Ortiz. I guess what I should be saying is, this team really needs a big middle of the order bat and Ortiz is that man right now. If he goes we need a big bat to replace him.

The team doesn't disclose its exact budget limit.

Here are the most recent numbers I had for the 2012 luxury tax calcs. 1 Gonzalez 22.00 2 Crawford 20.29 3 Beckett 17.00 4 Lackey 16.50 5 Ortiz 14.58 6 Youkilis 10.31 7 Matsuzaka 8.67 8 Ellsbury 8.05 9 Buchholz 7.38 10 Pedroia 6.80 11 Lester 6.00 12 Jenks 6.00 13 Bailey 3.90 14 Ross 3.00 15 Salty 2.50 16 Iglesias 2.06 17 Sweeney 1.75 18 Bard 1.61 19 Punto 1.50 20 Shoppach 1.35 21 Aceves 1.28 22 Aviles 1.20 23 Albers 1.05 24 Miller 1.04 25 Morales 0.85 25 man total 166.67 26-40 man total 8.00 Benefits 10.50 Bonuses 2.00 Total 187.17 Notes: -A few of those numbers like the benefits are estimates, but they should be close. -It's my understanding the settlement with Jenks resulted in a 1.5 million reduction of his contract. -They also had a reduction on Youkilis's contract of something like 2 million. -The threshold for 2012 is 178 million. -The threshold for 2013 stays at 178 million. -The threshold for 2014, 2015, 2016 increases to 189 million. -There is a big change in 2014 that results in an additional penalty for exceeding the threshold. I'm not sure exactly how it works but I read that EVEN THE YANKEES plan to get their payroll to 189 million for 2014 because it will save them 50 million in tax and penalties.

I think Beckett is the guy to trade. He should bring a decent value in return.

With regard to the LT, I'm pretty sure what Cherington and/or Lucchino actually said was that the team wasn't trying to stay under the threshold for 2012 - in fact they were already over the threshold without doing much of anything because so much money was already committed. Don't forget that when they traded Scutaro they said that this was going to 'free up payroll'. They then used part of that money to sign Ross. Jackso is right that Cherington had very little payroll flexibility handed to him. The comments about having enough pitching were a combo of PR and undue optimism.

Emmz, if you want a classic recent example of what you're talking about, the 2008 Blue Jays led the AL in ERA, by a good margin in fact - 3.49 to the Rays 3.82. They finished 4th in their division. Run differential is always the biggest correlator to W-L record.

Ortiz's production will not be easy to replace. He's hitting 313/406/609 with 22 HR, 24 doubles, 185 total bases and 56 RBI. He's probably the second best offensive player in the league this year after Hamilton. How is it easy to replace the second best hitter in the league? We're paying Gonzalez 22 million a year and he's not as good as Ortiz.

They might not be able to afford him, but they absolutely do not have an adequate replacement, not even close. Ortiz is having a Hall of Fame level season. He's slugging .609. Who replaces that? Lavarnway? He's got 7 homers and is slugging .463 in Triple A.

And if we do trade Ortiz, you can be sure we'll get f***ed on the deal. I actually think that instead of that, they might sign him to an extension. They know the fans need something to get them through the rest of this season.

It's been a long long time since this team packed it in in July. I'm not sure the fans would accept it, especially the ones paying for the expensive tickets. Tough sell for this PR-conscious ownership. Lucchino, the front man, better get ready writing his talking points on that one.

Does 'less than zero' sound about right?