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Bellhorn04

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Everything posted by Bellhorn04

  1. Bellhorn04
    Wins are all pretty to me now.
  2. Bellhorn04
    I agree with mvp on this. They aren't going to exercise the option and then trade him. That's the kind of thing armchair GM's love to talk about but hardly ever happens in reality.
  3. Bellhorn04
    I tried it a few times when I was a kid. You're right, if you flip 100 times the odds are actually against it coming out 50-50. But it will hover quite closely around 50% if you flip it 100 times or more - that's guaranteed.
  4. Bellhorn04
    Pythagoras says we are the best team in the league. That'll be small consolation if we miss the playoffs. (See you over in the Lineup Discussions thread.)
  5. Bellhorn04
    Red Sox Night games .826 OPS Day games .800 AL overall Night games .753 OPS Day games .739 OPS So we have just a little bit more of a dropoff in day games than the league in general.
  6. Bellhorn04
    Both statements are just guesses without any statistical breakdown and comparisons to other teams.
  7. Bellhorn04
    Now that's utter nonsense.
  8. Bellhorn04
    OK, it's luck or randomness. But apparently it's a form of luck or randomness that can be sustained for a long time. If I'm flipping a coin it might come up heads the first 5 times in a row, but if I keep flipping it will correct to 50% very quickly. A good hitter might be able to hit .400 for 50 games, but he will regress to .300 by the end of the season. But a team who beats their Pythagorean record by 5 games might very well do it again the following season. The correction factor seems weak to me. That is my real point.
  9. Bellhorn04
    I love numbers, but if Pythagorean record can be out of whack for as long a time frame as 4 years, it really doesn't mean very much IMO. Sure it works as a general correlation-common sense tells us it must-that's about it.
  10. Bellhorn04
    There's a rumor that JF's 2 neurons mated and there's a little third one helping out now.
  11. Bellhorn04
    Yes, when I checked GameDay in the 8th it showed Porcello still in the game at 130 pitches...I guess the operator was drunk.
  12. Bellhorn04
    Nope!
  13. Bellhorn04
    Big Dick is also getting over 7 runs a game in run support, which is rather incredible. Here are the runs they've scored for him in descending order, leaving out the boring ones: 16 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5
  14. Bellhorn04
    He missed about 2 weeks with the flu so that had a lot to do with it. Farrell figures tomorrow he's got Kimbrel, Kelly, Barnes, Ross and Abad to work with at minimum.
  15. Bellhorn04
    9th straight Quality Start for 20-game winner Big Dick Rick Porcello!
  16. Bellhorn04
    I'll vouch for that Slasher, you haven't wavered a bit.
  17. Bellhorn04
    Well said.
  18. Bellhorn04
    I don't disagree. Porcello has been fantastic this year.
  19. Bellhorn04
    If we don't have Buchholz next year, we have to do something about our lack of rotation depth. Guys like Owens and Johnson don't seem to be it, and Kopech won't be ready yet.
  20. Bellhorn04
    You said by the numbers he wasn't the ace. I provided some numbers that say he is. That was the point of that post. I think Porcello has been a little better. But the expectations for Price were a lot higher so that tends to factor into perceptions. Porcello has really benefitted from run support too. When the team wins every time you take the ball it makes you look pretty damn good.
  21. Bellhorn04
    Maybe Pythagoras can be beaten. 2013 Yankees were +6 vs. Pythagorean record 2014 +7 2015 -1 2016 +5 Total +17 for 4 years.
  22. Bellhorn04
    FanGraphs has Price as our ace over Porcello, 4.5 WAR to 4.0 WAR. Prices has more innings and a better FIP.
  23. Bellhorn04
    Max carping mojo in the house?
  24. Bellhorn04
    $13 million really isn't much of a commitment any more. We're paying that much for 2 years of a platoon outfielder (and Young is making that deal look good.) It's certainly possible you could do better with the $13 mill, there are also a lot of ways you could do worse. Or I could say 'let's just see what happens', which would be the most sensible position, but as always it's more fun jibber-jabbering and arguing about it.
  25. Bellhorn04
    Has to be a coincidence. The wake-up call would have been when they signed Hill.
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