SP currently states Early has a ceiling of a third starter and it's based on his velo only. The way they look at pitchers is purely "if this guy throws hard and has command he'll have a high ceiling with good secondaries" he'll get a TOTR projection. With Early, he has a great pitch mix and his velo is just a tick under what the want to see. Unfortunately, that has caused them to underrate Early going back to his first professional season. They've always been high AF on Tolle because of the velo ("ceiling of a 2 but that may be light'). We have seen how those two have pitched. Early may just be closer to a finished product and may be more likely to reach his ceiling. Maybe he can even be better than what SP projects? They didn't put #3 in his scouting report until last season so he's already pushing that projection higher.
Casas will most likely start on the IL then rehab at AAA. Not sure how they'd have Masa and Casas on the active roster together. There would need to be some sort of move made.