Red Sox Roundup, Nov 5: Anthony's Injury Struggles, 2027 Free Agents, Abreu's Trade Value

[notin]

21 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

 

And just for funnsies, watching Cruz throw the ball is a lot of fun.  Abreu has a better all-around arm, but Cruz is one of those guys that can reach home plate from the warning track.  Literally jaw-dropping arm velo.

Disagree Abreu has a stronger arm than Oneil Cruz.  Abreu has a very strong arm but I think Cruz has the strongest throwing arm in MLB, or very close to it. (StatCast puts only Jac Caglianone ahead of Cruz.)

[Deja Doh]

And he disappeared for a month.  We don't need/want him.

On 11/6/2026 at 10:38 AM, notin said:

Ketel Marte hit 50.  Just sayin’

 

[Deja Doh]

On 11/6/2026 at 9:58 AM, mvp 78 said:

Only 15 guys hit 60 HR from '25 - '26. Of them, I believe only Lowe and Suarez are FA. Suarez isn't a good bet going forward. Lowe isn't a good bet to stay healthy or hit 30 HR at Fenway. 

So we need to find the right trade.

[UtahSox]

7 hours ago, notin said:

1.  If we traded Abreu for Paredes, this looks even worse.

2. Trent Grisham is a step down for Boston.  Topped a 95 OPS+ once in the last 5 years, and can’t live off of 2025 forever.  I’d rather have Abreu and Duran over Grisham (unless I was concerned with CF defense, but Boston is not)….

Abreu OPS in September the last 3 years:

.517- 2024

.372-2025

.615- 2026

If you actually looked at my trade. Don’t conflate the trades….

1: You would see it was Abreu & Masa for Paredes freeing up 18m to sign Arozerena/ Soto…. So apples to apples… would I rather have Paredes at 3b, Durbin at 2b, mead at DH, and Arozerena in LF vs running back the same lineup we had this year? 100% I make that trade. 

2: trading CJ Abrams for Abreu + Gonzalez+ Bello. Frees up cash 8m + puts Abrams and Arias as your MIF for 3+ years. Abrams was a 30/30 guy last year with an OPS .833 MAJOR UPGRADE take the 8m and add a Grisham type in RF. (I know he will cost more than 8 but not a significant contract) Get 90% of defense of Abreu, get 95% of offense of Abreu…… and based on historical data 125% of Abreu September production

+  now you have Abrams anchoring MIF. I’d do that 100% vs running it back same as year before. 

 

[notin]

29 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

Abreu OPS in September the last 3 years:

.517- 2024

.372-2025

.615- 2026

If you actually looked at my trade. Don’t conflate the trades….

1: You would see it was Abreu & Masa for Paredes freeing up 18m to sign Arozerena/ Soto…. So apples to apples… would I rather have Paredes at 3b, Durbin at 2b, mead at DH, and Arozerena in LF vs running back the same lineup we had this year? 100% I make that trade. 

2: trading CJ Abrams for Abreu + Gonzalez+ Bello. Frees up cash 8m + puts Abrams and Arias as your MIF for 3+ years. Abrams was a 30/30 guy last year with an OPS .833 MAJOR UPGRADE take the 8m and add a Grisham type in RF. (I know he will cost more than 8 but not a significant contract) Get 90% of defense of Abreu, get 95% of offense of Abreu…… and based on historical data 125% of Abreu September production

+  now you have Abrams anchoring MIF. I’d do that 100% vs running it back same as year before. 

 

I do not see any situation where Houston wants Yoshida’s full contract in that deal.  Why are they taking it? To help offload the cheaper Paredes?

Youre also massively overvaluing Trent Grisham, who, again only one season in the past 5 has an OPS+ over 95.

But let’s say Grisham is as good as you say.  Why doesn’t Houston simply sign Grisham? Then they do not have to take on Yoshida for the 5% upgrade, as you put it.  We all know the answer - Grisham isn’t very good.  I mean, he has a good 2025 helped immensely by Yankees Stadium (.904 with 21 HRs at home, .704 with 13 HRs on the road.). But overall, bad. His career .587 OPS at Fenway can be somewhat attributable to the Sox having better pitching during his AL tenure, but a lot of it is the lack of a RF short porch…

[moonslav59]

47 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

So we need to find the right trade.

ISO helps tell the story on power without major PA differentails.

2025-2026

Judge stands alone at .330.

Schwarber .297 & Ohtani .293 are the second tier.

Kurtz .282, Raleigh .275, Buxton .274 & Murakami .271 could be called tier 3.

E Suarez .265, PCA  & Goodman .263, Camindero & Rice .257, Carroll .255, Alonso & Soto .253 are tier 4.

Devers & Moniak .246, Stowers .236, Muncy .233, C Monty & K Carpenter .232, Olson .231 and Jensen .230 make up tier 5.

.219 to .228: Wood, Lowe, Grichuk, Harper & Clemens

.210 to .216: Greene, Willson, Laureano, Torkelson, Rooker, Acuna & Soderstrom

.205 to .209: Mayo, Grisham, Pederson, Abreu, Canzone, Seager, Marte, Abrams, Neto, Springer.

.195 to .203: Garcia, Bauers, DLC, Busch, Chisholm, Stewart, Adell, H hernandez, Lindor, Manzardo, Vargas, Pasq., Bleday, Polanco, W Adames, Bregman & Arozarena

Notables:

.193 Paredes

.191 O Cruz

.186 Happ

.185 Teoscar

.173 Mead (#110 out  of 290 qualified 550+ PAs)

.171 Duran

.170 Betts

.166 AR

.163 Jeffers

.162 Rafaela (#138/290)

.154 Story (160)

.130 Durbin (217)

.121 Bogey

 

[Randy Red Sox]

On 11/5/2026 at 9:35 PM, JoeBrady said:

If we trade away an outfielder (and Duran), don't we need to trade FOR an outfielder?

no because we have KC under contract

[notin]

14 hours ago, Deja Doh said:

And he disappeared for a month.  We don't need/want him.

 

So keep Sogard at 2b?

[notin]

10 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

no because we have KC under contract

And Braiden Ward.  No one wants Braiden Ward any more…

[notin]

13 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

ISO helps tell the story on power without major PA differentails.

2025-2026

Judge stands alone at .330.

Schwarber .297 & Ohtani .293 are the second tier.

Kurtz .282, Raleigh .275, Buxton .274 & Murakami .271 could be called tier 3.

E Suarez .265, PCA  & Goodman .263, Camindero & Rice .257, Carroll .255, Alonso & Soto .253 are tier 4.

Devers & Moniak .246, Stowers .236, Muncy .233, C Monty & K Carpenter .232, Olson .231 and Jensen .230 make up tier 5.

.219 to .228: Wood, Lowe, Grichuk, Harper & Clemens

.210 to .216: Greene, Willson, Laureano, Torkelson, Rooker, Acuna & Soderstrom

.205 to .209: Mayo, Grisham, Pederson, Abreu, Canzone, Seager, Marte, Abrams, Neto, Springer.

.195 to .203: Garcia, Bauers, DLC, Busch, Chisholm, Stewart, Adell, H hernandez, Lindor, Manzardo, Vargas, Pasq., Bleday, Polanco, W Adames, Bregman & Arozarena

Notables:

.193 Paredes

.191 O Cruz

.186 Happ

.185 Teoscar

.173 Mead (#110 out  of 290 qualified 550+ PAs)

.171 Duran

.170 Betts

.166 AR

.163 Jeffers

.162 Rafaela (#138/290)

.154 Story (160)

.130 Durbin (217)

.121 Bogey

 

Always wondering about the availability of Kerry Carpenter (tier 5).  Two years left.  Not headed in the right direction in Detroit, and I hate that they platoon him.  

[JoeBrady]

16 hours ago, UtahSox said:

Abrams was a 30/30 guy last year with an OPS .833 MAJOR UPGRADE

Just isolating those two guys, including defense, I'd say those two are a lateral move.  Abreu had a 5.9 bWAR & Abrams a 5.1.  FG favors Abrams 3.7 to 3.3, but pretty even on both sides.  IMHO, we have our 2B in Mead.  Just sign Sato at DH instead of trading away talent.

At the end of the day, you'll have CJ, Grisham, and need to acquire a new #5.  My way, you'd have Abreu, Sato, and Bello.

[UtahSox]

19 hours ago, notin said:

I do not see any situation where Houston wants Yoshida’s full contract in that deal.  Why are they taking it? To help offload the cheaper Paredes?

Youre also massively overvaluing Trent Grisham, who, again only one season in the past 5 has an OPS+ over 95.

But let’s say Grisham is as good as you say.  Why doesn’t Houston simply sign Grisham? Then they do not have to take on Yoshida for the 5% upgrade, as you put it.  We all know the answer - Grisham isn’t very good.  I mean, he has a good 2025 helped immensely by Yankees Stadium (.904 with 21 HRs at home, .704 with 13 HRs on the road.). But overall, bad. His career .587 OPS at Fenway can be somewhat attributable to the Sox having better pitching during his AL tenure, but a lot of it is the lack of a RF short porch…

To get Abreu or is he now not that good?  I thought the Astros have coveted him for awhile??? That they would have to take on extra money to make deal work? Yoshida needs a fresh start…. If I was an Astros fan I’d rather that route. But I’m a Red Sox fan. I also think paredes would rake in RS uniform

The point of my comment was somebody said “the only way they’re trading Abreu was for EDLC… “ and I said there are millions of trade combinations I would make Abreu would not be on my team anymore. 

 

[moonslav59]

16 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

no because we have KC under contract

I'm not sure Brez & Co. view him as ML depth, at this moment.

I think we'll keep one from White or Jones as the 4th OF'er, once we trade Duran.

Yoshida is the  5th OF'er and maybe someone like Mead or Romy could be converted to LF, someday.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, UtahSox said:

To get Abreu or is he now not that good?  I thought the Astros have coveted him for awhile??? That they would have to take on extra money to make deal work? Yoshida needs a fresh start…. If I was an Astros fan I’d rather that route. But I’m a Red Sox fan. I also think paredes would rake in RS uniform

The point of my comment was somebody said “the only way they’re trading Abreu was for EDLC… “ and I said there are millions of trade combinations I would make Abreu would not be on my team anymore. 

 

I've liked Paredes for a while, but he has yet to "bust out" as I thought he would.

Now, that he has just one year left, I'm not looking to trade controlled players for him. Duran & White for Paredes? Sure.

Duran and Weissert? Okay.

[UtahSox]

34 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I've liked Paredes for a while, but he has yet to "bust out" as I thought he would.

Now, that he has just one year left, I'm not looking to trade controlled players for him. Duran & White for Paredes? Sure.

Duran and Weissert? Okay.

I’d like that. I’m at the point where I think we do need an elite bat for me to love it though. 
 

But here is your scenario…. bringing in Paredes, and then getting Curtis Mead in the lineup (new for 2027). I’d consider that an upgrade from the 2026 roster. I think we can expect a little bit more out of Roman Anthony this year, if we don’t get more out of him/ or he’s injured again like 2026, he will be my all-time biggest miss in Major League Baseball, from who I thought he was.

I’m not saying he’s an MVP type player, but if he plays 125 games, and posts an 800+ OPS out of left field, and you added Paredes and he gives you 800+ OPS. Hopefully you get more production at SS and DH Thats a more dangerous lineup.
I don’t think you can count on Contreras to be 900 ops, he will regress (hopefully not a lot)

And keep us where I think JH is willing to spend. 
 

[moonslav59]

Paredes has been pretty good for 2 years, and I love that .356 OBP. He also quietly hit 45 HRs in just 940 ABs. It's weird he has less 2B+3B than HRs (44,) but 99 XBHs in 940 ABs is not a noddle bat.

He might actually be a better 2Bman than Mead, but he also provides good depth at 3B.

One conflicting issue might be the idea that if Arias wins the SS job, Brez & Co seem to still have faith in Story, and might see him as the 2Bman with Mead moving to DH for 2027.

With so little SS depth behind a rookie SS, we kinda need to keep Story around, until we know more, and after what happened to KC & Mayer, waiting a year seems prudent.

[notin]

2 hours ago, UtahSox said:

To get Abreu or is he now not that good?  I thought the Astros have coveted him for awhile??? That they would have to take on extra money to make deal work? Yoshida needs a fresh start…. If I was an Astros fan I’d rather that route. But I’m a Red Sox fan. I also think paredes would rake in RS uniform

The point of my comment was somebody said “the only way they’re trading Abreu was for EDLC… “ and I said there are millions of trade combinations I would make Abreu would not be on my team anymore. 

 

I like the idea of Paredes in Boston, but o wouldn’t trade Abreu for him (and neither would Breslow).  My point was more about your valuation of Grisham, who, if he was 95% of Abreu, would likely be on Houston’s radar.  Their past attempts to acquire Abreu notwithstanding, I think the issue is - Grisham isn’t anywhere near Abreu as a hitter. 
 

Any comment that includes “Team X will only trade” some player for a superstar, it’s pure BS.  I dont care what team, and what players.  Teams just dont cater to fanboy fantasies that way and are always more flexible than fans prefer.  There are plenty of combinations for an Abreu trade that both sides would entertain.  But if the Sox do trade Abreu, they might not look for another OF; they might just start Duran again..