A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, Randy Red Sox said:

Hey i found the pitcher coming off rehab the Sox could get cheap on a 1 year deal-Kris Bubic.  Perfect replacement for Sonny Gray.

If we sign anyone, it will be an old geezer on a 1 year deal.

[moonslav59]

2026 OPS & PAs with a look at 2027:

.773 Abreu 681> maybe close to the same

.627 Duran 608> probably will be traded

.710 Durbin 586> maybe close to the same or better

.764 Rafaela 576> maybe close to the same/possible decline

.901 Contreras 535> probably due for a decline, perhaps steep

.665 Monasterio 347> probably will see way less time

.746 Yoshida 297> May be traded or put in AAA or the bench (Bauers)

.727 Sogard 277> probably close to the same and maybe the primary utility man

.621 Story 266> hard to project PA and production level

.735 Anthony 242> expecting significantly more PAs and better numbers

.655 Wong 238> probably close to the same

.594 Mayer 228> Gone (Mead)

.823 Gasper 225> hard to imagine a repeat of this production (Bauer)

.535 Narvaez 197> Gone (Rutschman)

.633 IKF 183> Gone (Mead)

.727 Seagler 173> hard to project much playing time (Mead)

.688 Rutschman 126> should get way more PAs: the production is difficult to call

.933 Jones 76> may not be on the 26 as he is out of options (Bauer)

.572 Romy 73> may bounce back and have a platoon role (Bauer)

.679 White 60> may not make the 26 and is out of options

.560 Eaton 60> May not play much

.600 Cheng 44> Gone

To simplify, maybe this is the hope:

• Anthony takes most of Duran's PAs with the others taken by White or Jones or someone else they may move to LF (Mead, Bauers, Yoshida, Romy?)
• Rutschman takes all of Narvaez's PAs and maybe some of Wong's (Gasper may take some.)
• Mead takes all of Mayer + IKF + Cheng (450 PAs) and some from Monasterio & Seagler.
• The Shortstop position is the hardest to project: Story & Arias are basically the only two players on the roster who can play SS long term. Arias is good on D, but Story is not. Story may have another 2025-like season on offense, but it's not likely. Arias on offense is largely unknown. 
• The DH position could see Bauer take all of Yoshida, Gasper and Romy's PAs, which is over 550 PAs.

These are 5 major changes that look probable. When you look at the 2026 PA rankings, one can easily imagine a seismic shift.

#2 Duran, #6 Monasterio, #7 Yoshida, #8 Sogard and #9 Story could all see major cutbacks or even down to zero due to trades or DFAs. Their PAs will be largely replaced by Bauers, Mead and hopefully more from Anthony.

#10 Wong, #12 Gasper and #13 Narvaez are being largely replaced by Rutschman.

There is certainly reasons to think some major upgrades from some bad to very bad numbers at 2B, LF, DH and SS is not only possible but mostly probable. Some improvements could be by as much as 100 to 150 OPS points.

The worst of the worst:

.535 Narvaez (197)

.560 Eaton (60)

.572 Romy (73)

.594 Mayer (228)

.600 Cheng (44)

That's a total of about 500 PAs of sub .500.

Then...

.621 Story (266)

.627 Duran (608)

.633 IKF (183)

.655 Story (238)

.665 Monasterio (347)

This group totals over 1300 PAs of an OPS near .630.

Combine the two groups and its over 1800 PAs at a bout .600 and the equivalent of 3 FT players. That could be Bauers (.874)  Mead (.851) & Anthony (.803 career) On paper, an improvement could be by over 200 points at 3 line-up slots.

That's the rosy outlook. No injuries. No major downturns.

You saw my gray outlook over the last 2-3 days.

Chances are we will fall somewhere in between.

[a700hitter]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

If we sign anyone, it will be an old geezer on a 1 year deal.

Giollito?