A Realistic View at the 2027 Red Sox Part I

[JoeBrady]

7 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

The thing is being over 100 is not enough, when you hardly have any of them over 110.

The Cubs led MLB with 110.  If we have 8 batters exceeding 100, we'll come pretty close to that 110.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

How about Durbin 3B, ELCD SS and Mead 2B?

I have no problem with a Arias-ELDC construct.  I just had a problem with moving Durbin, starting Story, and thinking it was an improvement.  The comment I responded to was an overpayment of about 100%.

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Sato would move Durbin to the bench (or 2B) not those two.

We could sign both and Durbin could play 3B, but then we'd maybe trade Anthony or Mead to clear up the DH slot for just one of them.

Yes, Sato at 3B, Mead at 2B would force Durbin to the bench, but with or without Suzuki.

None of that makes sense to me.  We won't move Anthony or Mead to just open up a slot for a free agent.  And we won't sign Sato to put Durbin on the bench, when we don't even know if Sato is as good as Durbin.

[Old Red]

8 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

Show your work please.  As far as I can see, Sale was due $27.5M in 2024.  The RS paid Atlanta $17M.  The RS saved $10.5 plus they got Grissom.  It didn't work out, but those are the details.

Start with $27.5M. $10M was deferred, which left $17.5M. Boston paid $17M of that, which left Atlanta with only $500,00 in actual cash value to pay in 2024 for a CY Young winner. What a sweet deal.

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

None of that makes sense to me.  We won't move Anthony or Mead to just open up a slot for a free agent.  And we won't sign Sato to put Durbin on the bench, when we don't even know if Sato is as good as Durbin.

If they sign Sato for 3b, Durbin becomes the 2b. Arias waits out Story for SS. Mead goes to DH. Roman is fulltime LF or RF depending on who Breslow trades from the OF. 

[mvp 78]

9 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

That's mostly my point.

LF - 26th >>>Anthony

3B - 16th

SS - 22nd >>> Arias

2B - 23rd >>> Mead

C - 25th >>> Rutschman

We have improved every weakness.

I wouldn't assume that Arias hits right away. He's probably a bottom of the order bat the first few years. I also would not play Mead at 2b if you value defense. With a healthy Rutschman, they probably are top 10 in OPS even if you get a defensive first backup. We haven't seen a full season from Anthony and I'm not counting on him to be healthy until he actually is. 

[Old Red]

23 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't assume that Arias hits right away. He's probably a bottom of the order bat the first few years. I also would not play Mead at 2b if you value defense. With a healthy Rutschman, they probably are top 10 in OPS even if you get a defensive first backup. We haven't seen a full season from Anthony and I'm not counting on him to be healthy until he actually is. 

I’m not counting on much from Mead, or from little A for that matter healthy, or not until he proves otherwise. little A isn’t that good an OF either if you value defense.

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, Old Red said:

little A isn’t that good an OF either if you value defense.

Wrong. 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I wouldn't assume that Arias hits right away. He's probably a bottom of the order bat the first few years. I also would not play Mead at 2b if you value defense. With a healthy Rutschman, they probably are top 10 in OPS even if you get a defensive first backup. We haven't seen a full season from Anthony and I'm not counting on him to be healthy until he actually is. 

Absolutely shouldn't count on Anthony as a full-timer or even ready for Opening Day. He basically missed four months, then rushed back before healed and broke down again.

Spring Training is in another four months, so why would anyone think he'll be ready by then -- especially now that he's re-aggravated the originally injury and done additional damage to other connected tissue from compensating.

The big question is: will those damaged areas ever be ready to withstand the punishment of a Roman swing making contact with a 100 mph pitch... from just resting?

[Old Red]

Just now, mvp 78 said:

Wrong. 

I’m sure you have some kind of stat you’re leaning on, but the good old eye test was really impressed with his little League arm last year. What impressed you the most?🤔

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Absolutely shouldn't count on Anthony as a full-timer or even ready for Opening Day. He basically missed four months, then rushed back before healed and broke down again.

Spring Training is in another four months, so why would anyone think he'll be ready by then -- especially now that he's re-aggravated the originally injury and done additional damage to other connected tissue from compensating.

The big question is: will those damaged areas ever be ready to withstand the punishment of a Roman swing making contact with a 100 mph pitch... from just resting?

It’s his indecisive check swings that was the problem this past season. Got him a nice, and long paid vacation in Florida. What a deal!

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

Absolutely shouldn't count on Anthony as a full-timer or even ready for Opening Day. He basically missed four months, then rushed back before healed and broke down again.

Spring Training is in another four months, so why would anyone think he'll be ready by then -- especially now that he's re-aggravated the originally injury and done additional damage to other connected tissue from compensating.

The big question is: will those damaged areas ever be ready to withstand the punishment of a Roman swing making contact with a 100 mph pitch... from just resting?

Per Breslow, the offseason rest is different than the rest he had during the season! 

Maybe they've created the bacta tank from Empire Strikes Back? 

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I’m sure you have some kind of stat you’re leaning on, but the good old eye test was really impressed with his little League arm last year. What impressed you the most?🤔

 

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

In the limited time he played last year he made some very weak throws in real games in real time. You can have your nice graphics though if it makes you feel better.

[NHNative]

Its a long off-season and maybe longer.

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, Old Red said:

In the limited time he played last year he made some very weak throws in real games in real time. You can have your nice graphics though if it makes you feel better.

And even with the very weak throws, he still had a stronger arm than Duran. 

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

And even with the very weak throws, he still had a stronger arm than Duran. 

I don’t know who was questioning that, but it’s a pretty low bar. Throw in Johnny Damon too if it makes you feel better about little A.

[NHNative]

I have heard the 'way back machine' has been dismantled.

[mvp 78]

21 minutes ago, Old Red said:

I don’t know who was questioning that, but it’s a pretty low bar. Throw in Johnny Damon too if it makes you feel better about little A.

Haven't heard you complain about Duran's arm? 🤷‍♂️

[JoeBrady]

2 hours ago, Old Red said:

Start with $27.5M. $10M was deferred, which left $17.5M. Boston paid $17M of that, which left Atlanta with only $500,00 in actual cash value to pay in 2024 for a CY Young winner. What a sweet deal.

Someone has to pay the deferred amount.  Who would that be?

[Old Red]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

Haven't heard you complain about Duran's arm? 🤷‍♂️

You mean the Butterfly Man?. Duran has been around longer, and he has been dissected at length. Plus he never had the hype, and expectations that little A has had before he even got to Portland let alone Boston. If your stats, and graphs tell you little A is a good outfielder, and that’s what you depend on to help you decide then run wild, and run free, and think he is.🙈

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

If they sign Sato for 3b, Durbin becomes the 2b. Arias waits out Story for SS. Mead goes to DH. Roman is fulltime LF or RF depending on who Breslow trades from the OF. 

That still boils down to trading an outfielder so that we can sign Sato.  At the heart of this is that we are adding Sato so that we can move someone to DH, when we already ranked 11th in OPS at DH, and have kind of a logjam there.

[Old Red]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Someone has to pay the deferred amount.  Who would that be?

Huh? Not in 2024, and that was the point all along. $500,000 for a CY in 2024. I repeat 2024. Nothing more, and nothing less.

[JoeBrady]

51 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

There is no way the Red is going to accept data from professionals (if it disagrees with his opinion).

[JoeBrady]

2 minutes ago, Old Red said:

Huh? Not in 2024, and that was the point all along.

If your point was about the timing of the $10M payment, then it is not a point worth considering.  It's like saying my 401k results don't count because I am not taking a withdrawal this year.

[Old Red]

3 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That still boils down to trading an outfielder so that we can sign Sato.  At the heart of this is that we are adding Sato so that we can move someone to DH, when we already ranked 11th in OPS at DH, and have kind of a logjam there.

The Red Sox like logjams. That’s pretty evident, and obvious.

[mvp 78]

9 minutes ago, Old Red said:

You mean the Butterfly Man?. Duran has been around longer, and he has been dissected at length. Plus he never had the hype, and expectations that little A has had before he even got to Portland let alone Boston. If your stats, and graphs tell you little A is a good outfielder, and that’s what you depend on to help you decide then run wild, and run free, and think he is.🙈

I think velo on his throws should be a simple enough stat for you to understand. You said he had a little league arm, but his arm seems to be strong enough to me even with a few bad throws mixed into a small sample.

The butterfly complaint is about him catching balls, not throwing them from what I remember.  

[Old Red]

Just now, JoeBrady said:

If your point was about the timing of the $10M payment, then it is not a point worth considering.  It's like saying my 401k results don't count because I am not taking a withdrawal this year.

You’re going off on such a simple thing. Atlanta paid Sale $500,000 in 2024 to win a CY. Those are the facts. What they have to do beyond  2024 wasn’t a point, but you took it there. Keep going, but it doesn Change 2024.

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

That still boils down to trading an outfielder so that we can sign Sato.  At the heart of this is that we are adding Sato so that we can move someone to DH, when we already ranked 11th in OPS at DH, and have kind of a logjam there.

Mead's 850 OPS is 100 points higher than the combined '26 DH OPS for the Sox. 

[Old Red]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think velo on his throws should be a simple enough stat for you to understand. You said he had a little league arm, but his arm seems to be strong enough to me even with a few bad throws mixed into a small sample.

The butterfly complaint is about him catching balls, not throwing them from what I remember.  

Duran’s weak arm has been well documented, and I’m not disputing that, but that doesn’t change anything on little A. I just don’t need graphs, and stats I guess to tell me how good someone is, or going like you guys are all hooked on it seems. When your watching a game to you have to look up something to tell you what you are watching, and how good someone is. That’s fine if you do for you, but I’m just not that needy, or interested  for that matter.