Red Sox (Sandoval) vs Yankees (Schlittler): 8/28/26, 7:15pm

[notin]

3 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

Spot on

I could add a bit of bad luck.  If Abreu’s double doesn’t bounce into the stands, Rafaela might have scored there.  Ramos wasn’t exactly being aggressive in tracking that ball down…

[notin]

17 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

Duran has more rbi's 9th inning or later than anyone in the league

Is that true?  I have no idea where to get that split…

[FredLynn]

33 minutes ago, notin said:

I could add a bit of bad luck.  If Abreu’s double doesn’t bounce into the stands, Rafaela might have scored there.  Ramos wasn’t exactly being aggressive in tracking that ball down…

I agree that sending Rafaela was the right move in that situation. Bellinger just made a great throw. That’s what it took. The other base running play by Rafaela was another boneheaded blunder by him. He’s had a lot of those. It’s an area for improvement. And I don’t get PHing for Duran. He’s finding his groove, especially in late innings and has historically been a better hitter than White. 

[moonslav59]

I'd PH for Duran vs a LHP every time the game is on the line.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, notin said:

Is that true?  I have no idea where to get that split…

B-R under Duran's batting splits shows he has 12 RBI in the 9th and 5 in extra innings.

I'm not sure where you find league leaders.

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

The trouble with players overachieving is it's not a long term thing.

I don't think we have much of a concern there.  On offense, Contreras is over-achieving and Duran is under-achieving.  Everyone else looks like within ~ 5% of their expectations.  On the pitching side, Gray is over-achieving, maybe Bennett mostly because we don't know what to expect.  And imo, Suarez & Bello are under-achieving.  I see nothing out of the ordinary.

[JoeBrady]

14 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

Actually, it was a riveting game to watch even though a loss.  

Fans need to appreciate the fight.  It was their #1, probably CY winner, against out #5, at their stadium.  We were a substantial dog in the game.

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Double-headers were a great thing of the past. You could watch 2 games for the price of one.

Now they should be referred to as day/night games. Double-header shouldn't even be used in the description.

Those were great.  Back when I was barely making above minimum wage, I'd stop by YS for a DH and sit in the bleachers.  It was so cheap, I wouldn't care if the first game was halfway done, and I could leave the 2nd game early if I wanted to, and still get my 9 innings.

[notin]

54 minutes ago, FredLynn said:

I agree that sending Rafaela was the right move in that situation. Bellinger just made a great throw. That’s what it took. The other base running play by Rafaela was another boneheaded blunder by him. He’s had a lot of those. It’s an area for improvement. And I don’t get PHing for Duran. He’s finding his groove, especially in late innings and has historically been a better hitter than White. 

The only point would be he was pinch hitting Jones for gor in the 6th, which I don’t consider “late innings” (your mileage may vary).  

But anyone batting in the sixth will bat again in a road game…

[notin]

20 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

B-R under Duran's batting splits shows he has 12 RBI in the 9th and 5 in extra innings.

I'm not sure where you find league leaders.

I knew where to get the numbers, it was the league-leading part I questioned.

12 RBIs in the 9th and later does seem like a lot.  But one third of those came on 1 swung in Miami, and he certainly isn’t the only player to hit a grand slam in the 9th or later. (Heck he isn’t the only Sox player to do it this year.)  

[notin]

21 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't think we have much of a concern there.  On offense, Contreras is over-achieving and Duran is under-achieving.  Everyone else looks like within ~ 5% of their expectations.  On the pitching side, Gray is over-achieving, maybe Bennett mostly because we don't know what to expect.  And imo, Suarez & Bello are under-achieving.  I see nothing out of the ordinary.

I think a lot of it was Law of Averages stuff.  The team wasn’t as bad as their record indicated early on.

Remember early in the year when there was a thread about how the Sox had essentially the same stats as the Padres but a much, much worse record?  Well, now we have a similar record, too…

[JoeBrady]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

I'd PH for Duran vs a LHP every time the game is on the line.

Most of those 'clutch' numbers are a mirage.  He's done well in the 9th because he has guys on base and because his BABIP is .480.  His career 9th inning numbers are 2 HRs in 200 ABs, with a 66/18 K/W.  Combine that with his results against lefties, then he is not a very good bet in that situation.

[JoeBrady]

31 minutes ago, notin said:

I think a lot of it was Law of Averages stuff.  The team wasn’t as bad as their record indicated early on.

Remember early in the year when there was a thread about how the Sox had essentially the same stats as the Padres but a much, much worse record?  Well, now we have a similar record, too…

Karros has 10 and Sheets has 11, so this is fairly random.

[Maxbialystock]

13 hours ago, SPLENDIDSPLINTER said:

Double-headers were a great thing of the past. You could watch 2 games for the price of one.

Now they should be referred to as day/night games. Double-header shouldn't even be used in the description.

Agree.   

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

2 hours ago, notin said:

Is that true?  I have no idea where to get that split…

It's true. At least according to the Miami Marlins' booth.

[Maxbialystock]

13 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

nonetheless he is way down the list of our concerns.  find another whipping boy.  Start with AR.

So far his hitting stinks, but just for 46 AB's.  He looks pretty good on defense and seems enthusiastic to be on the Red Sox.  Definitely overweight.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

30 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

Most of those 'clutch' numbers are a mirage.  He's done well in the 9th because he has guys on base and because his BABIP is .480.  His career 9th inning numbers are 2 HRs in 200 ABs, with a 66/18 K/W.  Combine that with his results against lefties, then he is not a very good bet in that situation.

His RISP OPS is .818.  Overall this season it's .633.  His biggest negative is K's.  Only 11 other players in MLB this season have more than Duran's 148.   Duran is 4th on the team in games played, 4th in total bases, 3d in dingers, and 1st in SB's.  He would not have screwed up that play today in which Long committed an error.  

My gooodness I'm impressed with Bennett's first 3 IP.  

[Maxbialystock]

14 hours ago, Randy Red Sox said:

nonetheless he is way down the list of our concerns.  find another whipping boy.  Start with AR.

So far his hitting stinks, but just for 46 AB's.  He looks pretty good on defense and seems enthusiastic to be on the Red Sox.  Definitely overweight.  

 

[Maxbialystock]

That's 2 errors and a passed ball by the Sox.  Awful.  

Plus Rafaela misread that shot to CF.  But then he made a terrific throw, followed by a perfect throw home to nail the Yankee belatedly trying to go home from 2b after a double.  

[vegasbob]

Just now, Maxbialystock said:

That's 2 errors and a passed ball by the Sox.  Awful.  

Plus Rafaela misread that shot to CF.  But then he made a terrific throw, followed by a perfect throw home to nail the Yankee belatedly trying to go home from 2b after a double.  

Max, you're on yesterday's game thread. Catch up bud. We lost that one

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, JoeBrady said:

Most of those 'clutch' numbers are a mirage.  He's done well in the 9th because he has guys on base and because his BABIP is .480.  His career 9th inning numbers are 2 HRs in 200 ABs, with a 66/18 K/W.  Combine that with his results against lefties, then he is not a very good bet in that situation.

"Clutch" is not a skillset.

It's not repeatable.

[Duran Is The Man]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Is that true?  I have no idea where to get that split…

i guess. they quoted it multiple times after the game.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, notin said:

I knew where to get the numbers, it was the league-leading part I questioned.

12 RBIs in the 9th and later does seem like a lot.  But one third of those came on 1 swung in Miami, and he certainly isn’t the only player to hit a grand slam in the 9th or later. (Heck he isn’t the only Sox player to do it this year.)  

12 in the 9th, 5 more in extras for 17 total.

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

12 in the 9th, 5 more in extras for 17 total.

He could get zero over the rest of the season.

It's not a repeatable skill.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

I don't think we have much of a concern there.  On offense, Contreras is over-achieving and Duran is under-achieving.  Everyone else looks like within ~ 5% of their expectations.  On the pitching side, Gray is over-achieving, maybe Bennett mostly because we don't know what to expect.  And imo, Suarez & Bello are under-achieving.  I see nothing out of the ordinary.

Agree on the hitting.  Team ERA, 3.46, is 3d best in MLB.  The Sox pitching has been the exact opposite of "ordinary."  That's the lowest team ERA in the JH era.  The 2007 Sox ERA was 3.87 and 2d best in MLB.  

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Agree on the hitting.  Team ERA, 3.46, is 3d best in MLB.  The Sox pitching has been the exact opposite of "ordinary."  That's the lowest team ERA in the JH era.  The 2007 Sox ERA was 3.87 and 2d best in MLB.  

Great point, Max.

We are 2nd in ERA-. Our 81 ERA- is 12th best in MLB since 2017 (10 years.)

Best Sox ERA- in this century:

Under 100 Sox teams

81 this year

82 2017

82 2002 (pre Henry)

***83 2007

***84 2018

85 2000 (pre Henry)

88 2025 (Brez)

89 2008 & ***2004

***90 2013

91 2016

92 2001 (pre Henry)

93 2021 & 2009

96 2010

97 2019 & 2003

98 2024 (Brez)

99 2011

All 3 Brez seasons have been under 99.

Under Henry, every ring season has seen an ERA- at 90 or lower. Of the 7 season at 90 and lower- we have 4 rings.

Can we make it 5 of 8?

[Maxbialystock]

5 hours ago, notin said:

Pitching was great.  
 

Offense was weak.

Rafaela’a baserunning is being overblown.  Bellinger made a remarkable throw to get him at the plate.

I do think Tracy overmanaged.  I get pinch hitting Jones for Gasper.  But White for Duran?  Didn’t Duran’s last AB vs a LHP result in a grand slam?  Monasterio for Seigler is a toss up… 

The Yankees have the lowest ERA of any MLB in years if not decades. Rafaela screwed up twice, but did so realizing just 1 run could be huge.  

As for Tracy, I completely disagree with your second-guessing him.  Did you not notice that Duran was 0/2 and White 1/2?????  I think he's done one heckuva job this season.  

 

[notin]

1 hour ago, Maxbialystock said:

The Yankees have the lowest ERA of any MLB in years if not decades. Rafaela screwed up twice, but did so realizing just 1 run could be huge.  

As for Tracy, I completely disagree with your second-guessing him.  Did you not notice that Duran was 0/2 and White 1/2?????  I think he's done one heckuva job this season.  

 

I would rather have Duran in there.  Yes White had a 70ft-15mph single, and wound up bring the Sox only hit with RISP.  But it was the 6th inning, and that means his spot was guaranteed to bat again.  Duran - whom you have defended adamantly this year, unlike me - is a guy I’d prefer coming up in the 9th vs Bednar, even with his limited success against the Yankee closer (0 for 2 with 1 BB).

I don’t consider 2 ABs an adequate sample size for anything.

And Rafaela didn’t screw up twice.  Thr first one was definitely on him.   But Bellinger nailed him at home plate with a beautiful throw that threaded the needle from 200 feet away, putting the ball  into a six foot gap in between home plate and a runner moving 30 feet per second, and did so in a way that the act of catching the ball put Wells’ glove in position to make the tag.  But with one out already, Rafaela has to go rather than risk two outs, and the Sox had to hope the ball carried up either line or hit Rafaela or hit the dirt and did a pop up bounce or anything but go exactly where it went.  That wasn’t bad baserunning; it was stellar defense…