Is Jarren Duran a Fit for the Houston Astros?

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Pena?

I wouldn't do it for 1 year of Pena control.

[notin]

4 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I could make a package, but I don't know if the Astros would do it. 

Go for it.  I dare you…

[Donnie Sadler was short]

5 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I think I'm getting there on Abreu too. He's a guy who plays great for a month and then is mediocre the rest of the season. Not sure he's going to get better than what we've already seen. Maybe his offense pops in another park?

he rarely gets a night off

[moonslav59]

26 minutes ago, Donnie Sadler was short said:

he rarely gets a night off

Unlike Pena.

[notin]

On 7/8/2026 at 1:56 PM, JoeBrady said:

1-We'd likely be selling at the lowest possible value.

2-We don't have a reasonable replacement.  IMHO, the best bet is to hope he recovers.

1.  Not his lowest possible value.  He can play worse, and he will get more expensive while his years of control pass by. 

2. Eaton, Campbell, Braiden Ward, Yoshida, trade deadline acquisition, and at some point, Roman Anthony.

[jad]

Yeah, there are just SO many teams (unlike the RS) who don't have enough .190 hitters on their rosters.

[mvp 78]

Duran has only 5 2b's in 297 PA's since 4/23. Only 1 in 189 PA's since 5/20. 

[notin]

12 minutes ago, jad said:

Yeah, there are just SO many teams (unlike the RS) who don't have enough .190 hitters on their rosters.

I do think several teams are willing to buy low on Duran…

[moonslav59]

While arbs often give declining players raises, I'm not so sure Duran will get arb raises.

1. He's never made it to an arb: he's always signed before it gets to one.

2. He had declined significantly for 2 years in a row, and this last one is a doozy.

3. His 2026 numbers don't even support the amount he makes this year.

I think he has next to zero trade value, right now, and even if a team thinks they can "fix him" or "a change of scenery might give a spark," they will not give anything of true value to try and find out. 

At this point, keeping him as depth and a PR in hopes he gets his mind straightened out might be the best idea. Taking up a 26 man slot is the big drag, but if we find a way to dump Yoshida or Story, maybe we can keep him around. (I can't believe I'm saying this, but DFA'ing him seems like a mistake, too.)

[mvp 78]

31 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

in hopes he gets his mind straightened out

Now you are asking for the world. 

[notin]

40 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

While arbs often give declining players raises, I'm not so sure Duran will get arb raises.

1. He's never made it to an arb: he's always signed before it gets to one.

2. He had declined significantly for 2 years in a row, and this last one is a doozy.

3. His 2026 numbers don't even support the amount he makes this year.

I think he has next to zero trade value, right now, and even if a team thinks they can "fix him" or "a change of scenery might give a spark," they will not give anything of true value to try and find out. 

At this point, keeping him as depth and a PR in hopes he gets his mind straightened out might be the best idea. Taking up a 26 man slot is the big drag, but if we find a way to dump Yoshida or Story, maybe we can keep him around. (I can't believe I'm saying this, but DFA'ing him seems like a mistake, too.)

Has any player ever gotten anything but a raise in arbitration?  Of course, his willingness to accept offers does help him here.  
 
There are competing teams with word situations in LF that might be interested.  Atlanta, who has been using Mauricio Dubon and Mike Yastrzemski leaps to mind, especially with Yastrzemski hetting injured.  San Diego hasn’t replaced Ramon Laureano yet, although their status as buyers is questioned, and their long-standing interest in Duran may be tempered.  But what either team might give up for Duran is certainly not what it was a year ago.

At a minimum, if either team can give up a guaranteed contract for Duran, it becomes a cost savings since Duran can be non-tendered…

[moonslav59]

11 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

Now you are asking for the world. 

I'm not expecting it at all, and it has less chance happening in BOS than a more laid back city, but we will get zero for him.

Would you DFA him? (That's what you do when someone is a drag, and they have zero trade value.)

[mvp 78]

Just now, moonslav59 said:

I'm not expecting it at all, and it has less chance happening in BOS than a more laid back city, but we will get zero for him.

Would you DFA him? (That's what you do when someone is a drag, and they have zero trade value.)

I may consider it when Anthony comes back.

[moonslav59]

6 minutes ago, notin said:

Has any player ever gotten anything but a raise in arbitration?  

I doubt it, but has anyone ever fallen this far over a two year stretch and gotten an arb raise? My guess is most have been non tendered and not even offered an arb, or they accept a contract at less value.

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, mvp 78 said:

I may consider it when Anthony comes back.

Maybe some team gives us a semi-promising single A prospect, but we might have to pitch in some money for even that. 

Hell, if we DFA him, we pay him anyway, so...

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe some team gives us a semi-promising single A prospect, but we might have to pitch in some money for even that. 

Hell, if we DFA him, we pay him anyway, so...

If they DFA him, you wouldn't pay him the upcoming potential ARB raises, only what is currently on the contract. It's cutting your losses if you don't believe in him going forward.

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If they DFA him, you wouldn't pay him the upcoming potential ARB raises, only what is currently on the contract. It's cutting your losses if you don't believe in him going forward.

Yes, that is what I meant, and if we pay his remaining 2026 salary in any trade, we'd lose no money. If we could get a decent single A prospect, maybe that is the best we can hope for.

My question is whether that is worth more than any upside Duran might have.

If we ax Yoshida s you suggest, Duran as a DH vs RHPs and as a PR'er might have more value than a single A prospect.

"Might."

[mvp 78]

11 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Yes, that is what I meant, and if we pay his remaining 2026 salary in any trade, we'd lose no money. If we could get a decent single A prospect, maybe that is the best we can hope for.

My question is whether that is worth more than any upside Duran might have.

If we ax Yoshida s you suggest, Duran as a DH vs RHPs and as a PR'er might have more value than a single A prospect.

"Might."

They have no interest in playing Masa every day, but he should be playing instead of Duran. They really hate that guy. 

[moonslav59]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

They have no interest in playing Masa every day, but he should be playing instead of Duran. They really hate that guy. 

I just said that about Yoshida and you called me out for saying it.

[mvp 78]

4 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I just said that about Yoshida and you called me out for saying it.

No I didn't.

[moonslav59]

33 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

No I didn't.

On the Beslow thread, I mentioned I am not a big Yoshida fan, but he's the best DH we have vs RHPs right now, and I listed all the other options.

You responded...

If you need all those dudes and Seigler comes down to earth, just have Sogard DH instead of Masa. There is no drop off between the two anymore. 

You have also said You'd have DFA'd Yoshida, before.

[mvp 78]

8 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

On the Beslow thread, I mentioned I am not a big Yoshida fan, but he's the best DH we have vs RHPs right now, and I listed all the other options.

You responded...

If you need all those dudes and Seigler comes down to earth, just have Sogard DH instead of Masa. There is no drop off between the two anymore. 

You have also said You'd have DFA'd Yoshida, before.

This doesn't contradict with me saying that Masa should be playing instead of Duran. I'd get rid of both of them, but I'd certainly play Masa every day in the meantime instead of Duran.

They don't play him more because they don't like him. Why? He's not their guy. So get rid of him! 

[moonslav59]

35 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

This doesn't contradict with me saying that Masa should be playing instead of Duran. I'd get rid of both of them, but I'd certainly play Masa every day in the meantime instead of Duran.

They don't play him more because they don't like him. Why? He's not their guy. So get rid of him! 

One of the guys I mentioned Masa playing over was Duran. You only mentioned Sogard over Masa. 

Do you still think that a week or so later?

1.092 last week

1.008 last 2 weeks

.898 last 4 weeks.

I'm still no Masa fan, but he deserves to platoon at DH, for a while, anyway.

No Sogard.

No Duran.

Not even Romy vs RHPs is better.

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, moonslav59 said:

One of the guys I mentioned Masa playing over was Duran. You only mentioned Sogard over Masa. 

Do you still think that a week or so later?

1.092 last week

1.008 last 2 weeks

.898 last 4 weeks.

I'm still no Masa fan, but he deserves to platoon at DH, for a while, anyway.

No Sogard.

No Duran.

Not even Romy vs RHPs is better.

DHing Sogard over Masa means Masa is no longer on the roster. I'm fine with that move. I've called for clearing Duran and Masa from the team over and over and over again. 🤷‍♂️

[moonslav59]

19 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

DHing Sogard over Masa means Masa is no longer on the roster. I'm fine with that move. I've called for clearing Duran and Masa from the team over and over and over again. 🤷‍♂️

You crack me up.

[jad]

4 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

While arbs often give declining players raises, I'm not so sure Duran will get arb raises.

1. He's never made it to an arb: he's always signed before it gets to one.

2. He had declined significantly for 2 years in a row, and this last one is a doozy.

3. His 2026 numbers don't even support the amount he makes this year.

I think he has next to zero trade value, right now, and even if a team thinks they can "fix him" or "a change of scenery might give a spark," they will not give anything of true value to try and find out. 

At this point, keeping him as depth and a PR in hopes he gets his mind straightened out might be the best idea. Taking up a 26 man slot is the big drag, but if we find a way to dump Yoshida or Story, maybe we can keep him around. (I can't believe I'm saying this, but DFA'ing him seems like a mistake, too.)

So why would you dump a good hitter in order to retain a bad one? (or is this the red sox way).

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, jad said:

So why would you dump a good hitter in order to retain a bad one? (or is this the red sox way).

Duran is not a "good hitter" anymore. I'm not confident Jones is either, but they must see something about him, and it is likely his platoon value.

Duran is a LHB and we need a RHB more than a LHB, even with Romy's return.

[Duran Is The Man]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

DHing Sogard over Masa means Masa is no longer on the roster. I'm fine with that move. I've called for clearing Duran and Masa from the team over and over and over again. 🤷‍♂️

i'm still puzzled how the Sox ever signed Masa. was there not anyone that actually went to Japan to watch him play? seriously? it almost strikes me as a situation where Bloom the uber-nerd just looked at his numbers and signed him from that rather than, you know.....actually watching him waddle around the field. yeah...we're so smart we don't need no stinkin' scouts. 😂

[moonslav59]

3 minutes ago, Duran Is The Man said:

i'm still puzzled how the Sox ever signed Masa. was there not anyone that actually went to Japan to watch him play? seriously? it almost strikes me as a situation where Bloom the uber-nerd just looked at his numbers and signed him from that rather than, you know.....actually watching him waddle around the field. yeah...we're so smart we don't need no stinkin' scouts. 😂

Apparently Sox scouts loved this guys since grade school. Okay, I jest, but word was they wanted him for years. 

Maybe it's not such a bad thing moving away from people scouts and towards data analysis, if that's the best we can do with real scouts.

The worst part was we bid against nobody and could have likely had him at half the cost or better.

[Duran Is The Man]

30 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Apparently Sox scouts loved this guys since grade school. Okay, I jest, but word was they wanted him for years. 

Maybe it's not such a bad thing moving away from people scouts and towards data analysis, if that's the best we can do with real scouts.

The worst part was we bid against nobody and could have likely had him at half the cost or better.

or maybe they need better scouts. i've met plenty of scouts over the years. and some of them i wouldn't trust to scout a little league team.