Red Sox sign Ranger Suarez. 5 years $130 Million

[mvp 78]

10 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I know that was my point. 

he may have bungled the Raffy situation but I think he was backed into a corner.  Henry obviously wanted him off the team. 

Once they had to start paying off that contract, Raffy had to go! 

[mvp 78]

12 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

No way they say no right?

With those types of ideas, Breslow would really be on the fast train out of town. 

[Hugh2]

22 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

With those types of ideas, Breslow would really be on the fast train out of town. 

The absurdity of the examples not was the point. 

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, Hugh2 said:

The absurdity of the examples not was the point. 

[moonslav59]

45 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

I know that was my point. 

he may have bungled the Raffy situation but I think he was backed into a corner.  Henry obviously wanted him off the team. 

Maybe only after hearing Brez cry about Devers, JH wanted him gone.

[mvp 78]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

Maybe only after hearing Brez cry about Devers, JH wanted him gone.

The actual theory is that something happened at the KC meeting between Devers and JH which caused JH to decide Devers needed to go. 

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

I don't think Paredes is a defensive whizz, but he's more likely to plateau at below average than see his skills absolutely crater due to age in the near future. 

But suarez has a floor as well.  its lower than paredes floor, defensively, I agree.  

Im not worried about suarez playing soccer with infield groundrs.  Hes too established/experienced.

Im a little worried about his range falling off a cliff (probably more than a little) but what Im really worried about is his body not withstanding it.  Like Turner just couldnt play third anymore. HIs body just wouldnt allow it.  YOu may have still seen him there sometimes, but certainly not every day.

I feel similar about suarez. I can live with his D if hes the guy we get, but I dont think his body will let him, and I would prob only keep him in a 3b rotation, not as an everyday 3b

I think everyday anything is mostly for boomers. Consistency guys want to know where they are playing. Like things use to be.  Get off my lawn.

[drewski6]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

How about this guy:

2.8 bWAR/162 over his career

8 DRS '25 at 2b

8 DRS '24 at 2b

pass

[mvp 78]

1 minute ago, drewski6 said:

I think everyday anything is mostly for boomers. Consistency guys want to know where they are playing. Like things use to be.  Get off my lawn.

If Breslow were able to, he'd field a starting lineup of 162 guys that didn't move off position. It's just CHEAPER to find platoon bats that can play mediocre defense at multiple positions. 

[Hugh2]

6 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

The actual theory is that something happened at the KC meeting between Devers and JH which caused JH to decided Devers needed to go. 

Exactly, and giving the time of year, the mandate, who needed a 3B/DH, and who could take on the money there was literally a very very slim market for him.  

I'm sure they would have gotten more had they waited to trade him, but it really feels like Henry must of said something along the lines of "I don't care I want him gone!!!!! get him outta here" 

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

What's "tier 2?" Maybe 30-60th?

300+ PAs

2025 wRC+

15 Anthony

57 Contreras

59 Romy

108 Duran

113 Abreu

2024-2025 (600+ PAs)

30. Contreras (top of tier 2)

56 Duran (does make tier 2 group)

89 Abreu (just makes the tier 3 group)

I'm not posting this to show we don't need a bat, because WE DO NEED A BAT, BADLY!!!!

Thats the wrong contreras, who you have as our best hitter.  I wish we had that contreras, but we dont, haha.  Duran is tops at 56.

And I wouldnt consider 56 "tier 2"

Tier 1 hitters are like 5 people Judge, Cal, Soto, Ohtani, Vlad (if he stays as good as he finished last year) maybe a few others.  But its not a set number, its just until there is a dropoff.

Id put 5-10 guys in T1, and the rest of the top 40 in t2. We have none (again, thats not our contreras at 30, thats younger bro)

So here we are , with not T1 or T2 hitters and some of you wanna (or wanted) to trade Duran, are only T3 hitter.  ANd some of you dont want Paredes because "Id rather have a guy who can field better"

WE HAVE 0 GOOD HITTERS

[Hugh2]

9 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

But suarez has a floor as well.  its lower than paredes floor, defensively, I agree.  

Im not worried about suarez playing soccer with infield groundrs.  Hes too established/experienced.

Im a little worried about his range falling off a cliff (probably more than a little) but what Im really worried about is his body not withstanding it.  Like Turner just couldnt play third anymore. HIs body just wouldnt allow it.  YOu may have still seen him there sometimes, but certainly not every day.

I feel similar about suarez. I can live with his D if hes the guy we get, but I dont think his body will let him, and I would prob only keep him in a 3b rotation, not as an everyday 3b

I think everyday anything is mostly for boomers. Consistency guys want to know where they are playing. Like things use to be.  Get off my lawn.

He was in the 9th percentile last year for range....It's already fallen off. 

[drewski6]

5 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Breslow were able to, he'd field a starting lineup of 162 guys that didn't move off position. It's just CHEAPER to find platoon bats that can play mediocre defense at multiple positions. 

no, opposite.

If you could have your entire 40 man roster in mlb, literally everybody in mlb except for maybe 30 guys would platoon.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He was in the 9th percentile last year for range....It's already fallen off. 

yeah, id rather get paredes personally

[Hugh2]

20 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

yeah, id rather get paredes personally

Yup, but don't get me wrong if it's Suarez (and I don't want it to be) I'll take the homeruns and cross my fingers that his range comes back for one more year. 

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Exactly, and giving the time of year, the mandate, who needed a 3B/DH, and who could take on the money there was literally a very very slim market for him.  

I'm sure they would have gotten more had they waited to trade him, but it really feels like Henry must of said something along the lines of "I don't care I want him gone!!!!! get him outta here" 

I think Breslow had been working on trades for a while. Henry got to the point where he was like "I'll eat salary, just get it done." 

[mvp 78]

19 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Yup, but don't get me wrong if it's Suarez (and I don't want it to be) I'll take the homeruns and cross my fingers that his range comes back for one more year. 

I'd hold my nose at a Suarez signing and hope it's for only 2 years. I think he'd be my plan D, but it's fine. I think it's better than running out a Romy/DHam platoon at 2b. 

[mvp 78]

47 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

no, opposite.

If you could have your entire 40 man roster in mlb, literally everybody in mlb except for maybe 30 guys would platoon.

No. 

[mvp 78]

You don't want to have to deal with platoon splits. You want guys that can hit RHP/LHP equally and can go 162. If you have a bench bat, fine. The preference is towards starters that can hit RHP and LHP. Breslow has said as much. 

[mvp 78]

49 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

He was in the 9th percentile last year for range....It's already fallen off. 

That's my worry with him. One day, it'll just stop being the same. I think with Paredes, you know what you got if you throw him at 3b. With Suarez, it could get worse. 

[drewski6]

3 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

That's my worry with him. One day, it'll just stop being the same. I think with Paredes, you know what you got if you throw him at 3b. With Suarez, it could get worse. 

bottom is a myth, anything and everything can always get worse

[mvp 78]

54 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats the wrong contreras, who you have as our best hitter.  I wish we had that contreras, but we dont, haha.  Duran is tops at 56.

There is such a thing as being confidently wrong. That's you. 

[moonslav59]

50 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Thats the wrong contreras, who you have as our best hitter.  I wish we had that contreras, but we dont, haha.  Duran is tops at 56.
 

No. From 2024-2025 Willson is #30 at a wRC+ of 130. (William is at #51.)

It's my personal choice to say top tier is top 30 (30 teams.) A top 30 batter is in the top 9th of 270 batters (30 teams x 9 batters.) I then make the second tier top 31-60, but it's subjective where we set these tiers.

I'm fine saying Contreras and Duran are tier 2 ('24-'25)

I'd say Anthony will be, but that is based on 300 PAs in 2025.

I'd like to think Abreu is reaching his prime and will be top 60, but he was 89th from '24-'25, so maybe that's being a homer.

It took 600 PAs to get the 270 player sample size, that Anthony missed. If I change the sample to 800 PAs, it lowers the player sample size to 188.

25 Contreras (Tier 1 in my book)

46 Duran (Tier 2)

71 Abreu (mid Tier 3)

We need a Tier 1 bat.

BTW, Alonso is ranked 24th- right above Willson.

Paredes, Bregman, Betts and E Suarez are all just below Duran. I guess they are not even Tier two either?

[moonslav59]

12 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I'd hold my nose at a Suarez signing and hope it's for only 2 years. I think he'd be my plan D, but it's fine. I think it's better than running out a Romy/DHam platoon at 2b. 

If we can't get Paredes, E Suarez is my next choice.

If we have to give up Duran to get Paredes, I'd rather sign Suarez.

[drewski6]

4 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There is such a thing as being confidently wrong. That's you. 

25	Matt Olson	ATL	147	654	31	93	91	1	11.9%	24.1%	.222	.299	.256	.349	.478	.355	129	-2.1	20.0	-10.5	3.2
26	Iván Herrera	STL	107	478	16	64	56	7	10.6%	19.5%	.167	.315	.273	.361	.440	.350	128	0.0	15.7	-9.6	2.3
27	José Ramírez	CLE	136	604	27	82	87	30	9.7%	12.0%	.215	.274	.275	.348	.490	.351	127	1.9	21.3	-0.1	4.3
28	Ben Rice	NYY	108	472	24	64	68	4	10.3%	21.3%	.229	.267	.247	.332	.476	.348	125	-0.8	13.3	-6.9	2.3
29	Rafael Devers	SFG	140	622	29	82	83	2	12.3%	24.9%	.216	.293	.249	.347	.464	.346	125	-1.6	17.0	-10.4	2.8
30	William Contreras	MIL	132	586	20	74	74	6	11.8%	18.8%	.175	.306	.269	.359	.445	.349	125	-1.3	16.2	5.4	4.2

 

[moonslav59]

4 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

25	Matt Olson	ATL	147	654	31	93	91	1	11.9%	24.1%	.222	.299	.256	.349	.478	.355	129	-2.1	20.0	-10.5	3.2
26	Iván Herrera	STL	107	478	16	64	56	7	10.6%	19.5%	.167	.315	.273	.361	.440	.350	128	0.0	15.7	-9.6	2.3
27	José Ramírez	CLE	136	604	27	82	87	30	9.7%	12.0%	.215	.274	.275	.348	.490	.351	127	1.9	21.3	-0.1	4.3
28	Ben Rice	NYY	108	472	24	64	68	4	10.3%	21.3%	.229	.267	.247	.332	.476	.348	125	-0.8	13.3	-6.9	2.3
29	Rafael Devers	SFG	140	622	29	82	83	2	12.3%	24.9%	.216	.293	.249	.347	.464	.346	125	-1.6	17.0	-10.4	2.8
30	William Contreras	MIL	132	586	20	74	74	6	11.8%	18.8%	.175	.306	.269	.359	.445	.349	125	-1.3	16.2	5.4	4.2

 

My sample was 2024-2025.

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders/major-league?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&type=8&month=0&ind=0&startdate=&enddate=&season1=2024&season=2025&sortcol=17&sortdir=default&pageitems=2000000000&qual=800

[drewski6]

2 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

No. From 2024-2025 Willson is #30 at a wRC+ of 130. (William is at #51.)

It's my personal choice to say top tier is top 30 (30 teams.) A top 30 batter is in the top 9th of 270 batters (30 teams x 9 batters.) I then make the second tier top 31-60, but it's subjective where we set these tiers.

I'm fine saying Contreras and Duran are tier 2 ('24-'25)

I'd say Anthony will be, but that is based on 300 PAs in 2025.

I'd like to think Abreu is reaching his prime and will be top 60, but he was 89th from '24-'25, so maybe that's being a homer.

It took 600 PAs to get the 270 player sample size, that Anthony missed. If I change the sample to 800 PAs, it lowers the player sample size to 188.

25 Contreras (Tier 1 in my book)

46 Duran (Tier 2)

71 Abreu (mid Tier 3)

We need a Tier 1 bat.

BTW, Alonso is ranked 24th- right above Willson.

Paredes, Bregman, Betts and E Suarez are all just below Duran. I guess they are not even Tier two either?

Okay, this is actually kind of funny.

I have been talking about projected wRC+ from 2026 since yesteerday.  Not sure when we switched from projected for 2026 to 2024 and 2025 combined, but

1. Its funny how when you look at 24/25 wrc+ Wilson Contreras is #30, but whne you switch to projected for 2026 William is #30. Pretty coincidental, but thats how this mix up happend. Ive literally had projected 2026 up on my screen this whole time and its William at 30 (I just posted it, but heres the link)

https://www.fangraphs.com/projections?type=steamer&stats=bat&pos=all&team=0&players=0&lg=all&z=1769074455&sortcol=16&sortdir=desc&pageitems=30&statgroup=dashboard&fantasypreset=dashboard

YOu might have to resort by wRC+

2. Wilson is old and William is young.  I think the 2026 projections are more accurate in this case.  When brothers are like 10 yrs apart in age, eventually the younger one surpasses the older one.

Not really the point though, Im glad we have old contreras. I would love young contreras but im glad we arent talking about casas at first

Wilson Contreras though is not a top 30 hitter in 2026, william contreras according to my source is, but borderline , and i kind of dont think he will be.

Im happy with either.
2

[drewski6]

E. suarez isnt the defender he was in 2024 and wilson contreras isnt hte hitter he was in 2024, though

He could resurge (wilson) and i hope he does.

[drewski6]

Al Horford looked older at 32 then he did at 36

[drewski6]

14 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

There is such a thing as being confidently wrong. That's you. 

plenty of times, but i honestly have been looking at 2026 projected wRC+ for 2026 since yesterday and William is #30 on that list and thats how this mix up happened.