2026 Prospects

[moonslav59]

On 2/16/2026 at 11:20 AM, UtahSox said:

Good point, for Casas to play in MLB, you’re really a couple injuries away unless it’s Contreras.

1- Contreras injury: Casas platoon w/ Romy or everyday 1b. Depending on who hits LHP better between Mayer/ Casas. Previous Stats say it will be TC, but if MM is 1/4th as good as everyone keeps telling me he is, he will need to hit LHP much better. 

2- everything else takes a couple of injuries at similar positions to get him into the lineup.

I think Casas has an equal chance as Masa to DH, if an OF'er gets hurt.

They may go with Masa, first, due to the money, and the fact that Casas has an option.

[moonslav59]

On 2/16/2026 at 9:58 AM, mvp 78 said:

SP currently states Early has a ceiling of a third starter and it's based on his velo only. The way they look at pitchers is purely "if this guy throws hard and has command he'll have a high ceiling with good secondaries" he'll get a TOTR projection. With Early, he has a great pitch mix and his velo is just a tick under what the want to see. Unfortunately, that has caused them to underrate Early going back to his first professional season. They've always been high AF on Tolle because of the velo ("ceiling of a 2 but that may be light'). We have seen how those two have pitched. Early may just be closer to a finished product and may be more likely to reach his ceiling. Maybe he can even be better than what SP projects? They didn't put #3 in his scouting report until last season so he's already pushing that projection higher. 

You know your stuff, but I also think sps,com is weary of the small sample size of Early's early success. 

Of late, you seem to be really valuing small samples sizes, especially if recent.

[moonslav59]

On 2/19/2026 at 1:45 PM, mvp 78 said:

Holobetz added a bullet slider and adjusted his changeup grip

I still think this guy may flip the script on the Priester trade.

[moonslav59]

My updated top prospects list:

1. Tolle

2. Early

3. Witherspoon

4. Arias

5. Valera

6. Bennett

7. Gonzales

8. Phillips

9. Soto

10. Godbout

11. Holobetz

12. Eyanson

13. Watson

14. Romero

15. Azocar

16. Jo Garcia

17. Delzine

18 Ramos

19. Rivas

20. Mullins/Uberstine

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

Phillips... (from soxprospects.com)

"I pride myself in my physical presence," Phillips said. "I am a big guy. I throw hard with a cut fastball, and I like to attack hitters with it. I am featuring a pretty good slider and sweeper, if I do say so myself. I also have a changeup I have been working on a lot as of recent. We are looking at a four-pitch mix when I start the season. I have been one that usually sits in the upper nineties range on the fastball. I just love to compete, and I am going to have an edge to me. I am going to have a chip on my shoulder like I have something to prove, and I think people will notice that."

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com has these projected rotations on the farm...

AAA: Early, Tolle, Uberstine, Sikkema, Gamboa

AA: Bennett, Mullins, Holobetz, Wehunt, Rivera/Rogers

A+: Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Tygart/Ziehl

A-: J Bello, Finley, Patton, Brown, Morgan/Ruiz

FCL: Bido, Chirino, Frias, Galvan, Payano/D Reyes/Sanchez/Veraza/Wilson

[moonslav59]

Everyday Players on the Farm by top ranking:

C: Jo Garcia #24 AA, A Guzman #30 A+, Heyman #31 A-

1B: Gonzales #7 A+ (OF),

2B: Godbout #11 A+, Cason #28 FCL (P)

SS: Arias #3 AA, Soto #8 FSL, Ramos #22 FCL

3B: Romero #12 AAA

LF: Castro #20 AA, Taylor #25 A+

CF: Bleis #16 AA, Rivas #23 FCL

RF: Azocar #18 A-

DH: Cespedes #17 A-

We have a top 25 player for each slot. It's top 20 for every slot, except catcher, but I like how Brez stocked up on promising young catchers over the winter, and I've always been higher on Jo Garcia than most.

Catchers in the system:

24 Jo Garcia, 30 A Guzman (added in Oviedo trade), 31 Heyman (Alex Hoppe trade), 32 Primera (IFA Sept '24), 44 Jorge Rodriguez, 46 Brannon & 59 Gerald Rodriguez, plus Ronny Hernandez in Chris Murphy trade)

Three top 32 catchers added since September 2024.

Roster Projections:

MLB Narvaez (a great addition last winter) and Wong (Contreras as emergency?)

AAA: Thaiss (I like him as depth) & Delay (Hickey as emergency)

AA: Jo Garcia, R Rosarion & Hudson White (good on D)

A+: Guzman, Ronny Hernandez (Chris Murphy trade) & R Martinez

A-: Heyman, K Salazar & G Rodriguez

FCL: Primera & Jo Rodriquez

It's not the greatest catching group, but it's deeper than a year or two ago. (We did trade Teel in the Crochet trade.)

[Hugh2]

32 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

soxprospects.com has these projected rotations on the farm...

AAA: Early, Tolle, Uberstine, Sikkema, Gamboa

AA: Bennett, Mullins, Holobetz, Wehunt, Rivera/Rogers

A+: Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Tygart/Ziehl

A-: J Bello, Finley, Patton, Brown, Morgan/Ruiz

FCL: Bido, Chirino, Frias, Galvan, Payano/D Reyes/Sanchez/Veraza/Wilson

That Greenville rotation looks very interesting 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

That Greenville rotation looks very interesting 

I was thinking the same.

Lots of promise.

[moonslav59]

A look at the middle infielders on the farm with some quotes from soxprospects,com...

#2 Franklin Arias: should be a good defensive SS.

Potential everyday regular at shortstop. Ceiling of a quality regular who provides value with his glove and contact ability. Hit tool is a standout tool, but lack of power and speed limits upside. Defensive profile provides him a solid floor. High baseball IQ; actively seeks to learn more and improve. Needs to get stronger and continue to physically mature to reach his potential.

#8 Dorian Soto: has strong arm and could end up at 3B. He has raw power that is "advanced for his age."

Very intriguing prospect with a high-upside offensive profile. Ideal frame with solid athleticism and plenty of remaining projection. Strong makeup and work ethic and is reportedly already getting better. Long-term defensive home remains to be seen, but should be able to stick in the infield and provide plenty of value at the plate.

#11 Henry Godbout: probably just an average defender at 2B. Not much power, but some when he "pulls" the ball.

Right-handed hitter with a contact-over-hit profile. Elite contact skills. Fits the mold of college bats the Red Sox have targeted and elevated in recent drafts. Strong candidate for their bat speed program and has a frame of someone who should hit for more power than he showed at Virginia. If he can add bat speed and hit the ball harder more consistently without sacrificing much contact, could develop into an intriguing middle infield prospect.

#12 Mikey Romero: first round pick in 2022. Fringe defender at 2B.

 Potential bat-first utility player. Ceiling of a second division regular at second base. Showed more power than expected while sacrificing contact in 2024, but came to camp in 2025 showing much more contact ability without sacrificing any power. Needs to continue to show that tightened-up approach and that he can make consistent contact to reach his potential as his chase rate remains high. Has moved down the defensive spectrum in the high-minors already and is not a guarantee to stick in the infield. Pressure on bat increases as he moves down the defensive spectrum. Hard worker who has struggled to stay on the field consistently throughout his career.

#17 Yoeilin Cespedes: might end up in LF or at DH.

 Potential bat-first utility player, but is a high-variance prospect with considerable risk. Ceiling of an everyday regular. Will show intriguing offensive tools and upside at the plate, but needs to improve pitch recognition and approach to reach his offensive potential and his defensive profile lags behind. Very unlikely to stick at shortstop long-term, putting more pressure on his bat as he moves down the defensive spectrum. Not a lock to stick in the infield. Was one of the most advanced hitters in the DSL in 2023, with scouts expressing confidence in his long-term offensive upside, and carried that performance over to the FCL in 2024 prior to his injury.

#22 Hector Ramos

Solid athlete. Switch-hitter who has shown feel for hit from both sides of the plate already. Solid contact skills with average power potential, mostly to the pull side. Average speed. Defensively, has above-average potential at shortstop, where he is already reliable. Strong, accurate arm. Strong work ethic and will get the most out of tools. Loves to play baseball and already shows leadership qualities.

#28 Conrad Cason: is a pitcher, too and may move to OF.

High-risk, high-reward player who will be developed, initially at least, as a two-way player. Most scouts prefer him on the mound, but impressed at the plate and in the field, especially at the draft combine. Has standout athleticism in either role and strong, loose arm. On the mound has a three-pitch mix with impressive velocity and at the plate has a solid approach and some developing power and profiles up the middle, whether it be at shortstop or in center field.

#34 Dawvris Brito: May stick at SS.

Athletic right-handed hitter with five-tool potential. Wide-range of outcomes given his age and the amount of projection left in his frame, but the type of player you want in your system because if things click he has considerable upside.

#38 Mason White: may move to OF eventually.

Potential bat-first infielder whose upside will be determined by how his hit tool develops. Checks a lot of boxes with what the Red Sox look for in players with his ability to impact the baseball. Extremely quick hands, hits the ball hard consistently, and can elevate to the pull side. Approach and contact skills are both works in progress, creating a wide amount of variance in his hit tool. If he hits, has MLB regular upside. Not likely to add a ton of value on defense, but also will not hurt a team there and could develop positional versatility.

Others: 42 Marvin Alcantara, 43 Starlyn Nunez, 50 Maximus Martin

By Level:

AAA: 2B Vinny Capra, SS T-C Cheng (3B/2B Romero) Ferguson, McDonough, Seigler

AA: 2B Alcantara, SS Arias, Fraymi de Leon

A+: 2B Godbout, SS White (3B Nunez) Freili Encarnacion

A-: 2B Cespedes, SS Pinto, Ty Hodge

FCL: 2B Ramos, SS Soto

[Hugh2]

On 2/20/2026 at 11:41 PM, moonslav59 said:

You know your stuff, but I also think sps,com is weary of the small sample size of Early's early success. 

Of late, you seem to be really valuing small samples sizes, especially if recent.

Also might I add that SP doesn’t have a TOTR projection for any of the pitching prospects.  

[moonslav59]

5 hours ago, Hugh2 said:

Also might I add that SP doesn’t have a TOTR projection for any of the pitching prospects.  

They are ultra-conservative on giving out those projections, but to me, we have so many promising pitching prospects with a lot of upside potential that one or two are almost certainly going to become a solid #2 or a decent #1, at some point.

They state that Valera has the "early makings of a potential high-end starting pitching prospect."

Delzine "high upside arm" and significant potential that "is potentially the best for any Red Sox IFA pitcher in recent history." (I wonder if that goes back to Anderson Espinoza signed in 2014.) 

Phillips "high-ceiling right hander with a wide range of outcomes." (Kinda wishy-washy but not closing the door on his chances.)

They do say Tolle has a "ceiling of a number two starter, but even that may be light."

They claim Early has the ceiling of a "quality 3rd starter" and a "high-floor, lower-ceiling profile.)

They say the same about Eyanson with the "high-floor, low-ceiling" comment.

Witherspoon "mid rotation upside."

Bennett "potential back-end starter."

[moonslav59]

A look at corner infield on the farm...

1B: #7 Justin Gonzales may end up as an OF'er but with his size, I'm thinking 1B might be his final landing spot. He's only 19 and should begin the season in A+. Lots of potential.

3B: #12 Romero might be the best hope at 3B, at least in the upper minors. It's hard to know which SSs could end up at 3B.

The only other top 60 prospects listed at 1B or 3B are:

43 Nunez A+ (SS)

46 Brooks Brannon AA (C/1B)

53 Jostin Ogando (FCL)

56 Jhorman Bravo FCL (Utility)

Not much depth. Here are the projected corner IF roster slots:

AAA Sogard/Hickey/Seigler 1B, Romero/McDonough 3B

AA: Brannon/Tyler Miller 1B, Liendo/Stanley Tucker 3B

A+: Anderson/ F Encarnacion 1B, Nunez 3B

A-: Ortiz, Jimenez 1B, Winnay, Hodge 3B

FCL: Brito, Mambel 1B, Bravo 3B

[Hugh2]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

They are ultra-conservative on giving out those projections, but to me, we have so many promising pitching prospects with a lot of upside potential that one or two are almost certainly going to become a solid #2 or a decent #1, at some point.

They state that Valera has the "early makings of a potential high-end starting pitching prospect."

Delzine "high upside arm" and significant potential that "is potentially the best for any Red Sox IFA pitcher in recent history." (I wonder if that goes back to Anderson Espinoza signed in 2014.) 

Phillips "high-ceiling right hander with a wide range of outcomes." (Kinda wishy-washy but not closing the door on his chances.)

They do say Tolle has a "ceiling of a number two starter, but even that may be light."

They claim Early has the ceiling of a "quality 3rd starter" and a "high-floor, lower-ceiling profile.)

They say the same about Eyanson with the "high-floor, low-ceiling" comment.

Witherspoon "mid rotation upside."

Bennett "potential back-end starter."

Absolutely, they certainly elude that some of these guys could have higher ceilings than their projections indicate if everything breaks right.  When they give someone like Tolle a 5-6.5 range I believe they feel there is a very high probability he falls into that range. 

Now, I'm making up percentages here but maybe theres a 5-10% chance there is more.  It's obviously easier to dream on what a guy can be if he lives in that 5% when he has an elite tool.....like a 99 MPH fastball. 

[moonslav59]

A look at the OF on the farm...

#7 Justin Gonzales (may play 1B)

#16 Bleis (IMO over-rated)

#17 Cespedes (listed at 2B, also over-rated)

#18 Azocar (19 yrs old)

#20 Castro (the last of the over-rated trio)

#23 Rivas (17 yrs old)

#25 Taylor (22 at A+)

#33 Silverio (DSL)

#37 Y Rod AA

#49 I Jackson (Grissom trade)

#55 A Fermin (A-)

There is some promise here, and a little bit of depth, but not a highly rated OF group. The good thing is, we have 3 OF'ers locked up for 4+ years plus Duran.

[moonslav59]

5 minutes ago, Hugh2 said:

Absolutely, they certainly elude that some of these guys could have higher ceilings than their projections indicate if everything breaks right.  When they give someone like Tolle a 5-6.5 range I believe they feel there is a very high probability he falls into that range. 

Now, I'm making up percentages here but maybe theres a 5-10% chance there is more.  It's obviously easier to dream on what a guy can be if he lives in that 5% when he has an elite tool.....like a 99 MPH fastball. 

Nice post.

Let's say Tolle, Valera & Delzine have a 20% chance of becoming a #1 or #2, and Early, Witherspoon & Phillips have a 10% chance. Maybe Eyanson, Bennett and someone else have a 5% chance. The odds come to 49% one of the top 3 guys becomes a 1-2, 27% one of the 10% guys becomes a 1-2 and 14% one of the three 5% guys makes it that high.

Add them up, and the chances are pretty good we get one or maybe two.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

MLB.com ranks the Sox farm #14.

We dropped 11 slots (second most) due to graduations.

MLB.com:

 Boston also features more international signees (15) on its Top 30 than any other system, highlighted by shortstops Franklin Arias and Dorian Soto, right-hander Juan Valera and outfielder Justin Gonzales.

[moonslav59]

Over the winter, Brez made some bold trades, and he didn't seem to shy away from trading prospects. He did keep the top ones, but according to soxprospects,com's rankings he ended up trading away these prospects:

4 from the top 10 and 7 from the top 20.

4. Perales (for current #6 Bennett)

6. Jh Garcia (for Oviedo- our #5 SP'er)

8. Clarke (for Sonny Gray- our #3 SP'er)

10. Fajardo (part of the Contreras deal- our starting 1Bman & #4 batter)

12. Sandlin (part of the Jordan Hicks dump trade)

18. Drohan (part of the Durbin trade- our starting 3Bman)

20. Travieso (part of the Contreras trade)

We also lost #21 J Paez to Rule 5, but gained #19 via trade (J Reimer)  for Rule 5 Ryan Watson.

Besides adding #6 Bennett & #19 Watson to the top prospects list, Brez acquired:

27. Samaniego (with Oviedo)

29. Ziehl (Hicks & Sandlin trade)

30. Adonys Guzman (with Oviedo)

31. Luke Heyman (for Hoppe)

33. Garielvin Silverio IFA

49. Isaiah Jackson (for Grissom)

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

On 3/6/2026 at 9:44 PM, moonslav59 said:

MLB.com ranks the Sox farm #14.

We dropped 11 slots (second most) due to graduations.

MLB.com:

 Boston also features more international signees (15) on its Top 30 than any other system, highlighted by shortstops Franklin Arias and Dorian Soto, right-hander Juan Valera and outfielder Justin Gonzales.

I think they dropped less to graduations and more due to all the offseason trades as you note in a follow up post.

[moonslav59]

27 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

I think they dropped less to graduations and more due to all the offseason trades as you note in a follow up post.

Dropping Anthony, Mayer and Campbell was a major factor in the drop. I think more than trading away Perales, Garcia, Clarke and some lesser prospects.

Also, we did replace perales with Bennett, added Watson while losing Paez and built up our catcher depth around the #30 rankings.

Both made a difference, but I think losing the big three, plus Narvaez was the majority factor in the drop.

I kind of expected a bigger drop.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

Others listed for the shorter-term IL:

AAA: Anthony Seigler

AA: Noah Dean, Matt McShane, Erik Rivera, Brooks Brannon, Fraymi de Leon

A+: Adam Bates, Maximus Martin

A-: Wuilliams Rodriguez, Yohander Linarez

FCL: Conrad Cason, Fabian Bonilla, Edwin Brito

[mvp 78]

Dean - 5th round '22

Miller - 9th round '21

DeLeon 1.2M signing

Cruz 150k signing

Lugo 125k signing

Teran 35k signing

 

 

[moonslav59]

de Leon got the highest bonus in the 2022 IFA signing period.

F Encarnacion was second at $1.1M and Jo Garcia 3rd at $850K.

Swings and misses happen. I think we've done pretty well with IFA signings over the past few years, but he was a big miss.

[moonslav59]

Rankings by farm level:

DSL:

33 Silverio, 34 Brito

FCL:

9 Soto, 20 Delzine, 21 Ramos, 22 Rivas, 27 Cason, 32 Primera, 44 J Rodriguez, 53 Ogando, 56 Bravo

A-: 

18 Azocar, 29 Guzman, 31 Heyman, 45 Foutch, 52 Morgan, 54 Bello, 55 Fermin, 58 Patton

A+:

4 Witherspoon, 5 Valera, 7 Gonzales, 9 Phillips, 10 Eyanson, 11 Godbout (6 of top 11!) 17 Cespedes, 23 Jo Garcia, 24 Taylor, 36 Tygart, 38 White, 40 Ingrassia, 43 Nunez, 49 Jackson, 50 Martin, 51 Neely, 59 G Rodriguez, 60 Finley (18 of top 60!)

AA:

2 Arias, 6 Bennett, 14 Holobetz, 15 Mullins, 16 Bleis, 25 Monegro, 28 Ziehl, 55 Wehunt, 37 YRod, 39 McShane, 41 Rivera, 42 Alcantara (12 of top 42 at AA) 46 Brannon, 48 Rogers, 57 Adams

AAA:

1 Tolle, 3 Early, 12 Romero, 13 Uberstine (9 of top 16 in AA & AAA) 19 Castro, 26 Samaniego, 47 Wu-Yelland

BOS:

30 Watson

[mvp 78]

18 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

de Leon got the highest bonus in the 2022 IFA signing period.

F Encarnacion was second at $1.1M and Jo Garcia 3rd at $850K.

Swings and misses happen. I think we've done pretty well with IFA signings over the past few years, but he was a big miss.

If Johanfran doesn't work out, that '22 class is a big time whiff. 

The top of the '24 class was a nightmare with the top 3 guys already out of baseball. Asencio was placed on the restricted list for undisclosed reasons and ever returned. 

The volatility of those signings is why there needs to be a better balance with how the Sox draft stateside. Can't rely on IFA guys IMO. 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

If Johanfran doesn't work out, that '22 class is a big time whiff. 

The top of the '24 class was a nightmare with the top 3 guys already out of baseball. Asencio was placed on the restricted list for undisclosed reasons and ever returned. 

The volatility of those signings is why there needs to be a better balance with how the Sox draft stateside. Can't rely on IFA guys IMO. 

We do have hope that Justin Gonzalez can save the '24 signing period, but yes, that was a major whiff.

'23 looks to be all about Arias.

'25 still looks good. (Soto, Rivas, Ramos...)

[moonslav59]

soxprospects.com projected farm rotations:

Worcester: Tolle, Sandoval, Crawford, Uberstine, Sikkema

Portland: Bennett, Mullins, Holobetz, Rivera, Wehunt/Ziehl

Greenville: Valera, Witherspoon, Phillips, Eyanson, Neely/Finley

Salem: Patton, Brown, Walker, Bouchard, Morgan/Foutch

FCL: Bido, Chirino, Fisher, Frias, Gilman, Rasmussen, Reyes, Veraza, Wilson