Red Sox Trade The Password

[moonslav59]

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

First of all I don’t value all this arb stuff, and team control like you do depending on the situation of course. I know you like to play make believe' and there is nothing wrong with that, but I doubt there is no discussion going on about any such TARDE anyway. I don’t believe the Kut Man is going to make, or break the Red Sox season, or make, or break any trade.

 

4 hours ago, Old Red said:

 

It's interesting how you keep pretending to know what I value. 

There is a reason I keep suggesting Crawford as an add on to trade suggestions. I don't think he'll "make or break" our season, too. Something we agree on.

GMs certainly value years of control, if they like a player. I have no idea if TB likes Crawford, or not. Nobody thought they'd "like" Beeks enough to give up Nate or Springs enough to give up a promising catcher prospect. err... suspect, but they did.

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, notin said:

Why is it fans cling to that 15 inning stretch from Crawford as if it outweighs his other 377 IP but when it came to Sale, the feeling was his performance, or lack of, from 2019 through 2023 should have been completely ignored up to the last 40 or so innings in a 5 year stretch?

It does seem to be a common occurence.

[Hitch]

11 hours ago, notin said:

Why is it fans cling to that 15 inning stretch from Crawford as if it outweighs his other 377 IP but when it came to Sale, the feeling was his performance, or lack of, from 2019 through 2023 should have been completely ignored up to the last 40 or so innings in a 5 year stretch?

Maybe go and ask someone who fits into those particular parameters?

[JoeBrady]

12 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Why is it fans cling to that 15 inning stretch from Crawford

It is the way of the Red Sox Fan.  We have a lot of fans that will cherish a player forever, based on a 2-HR game from 2 years ago.  And be willing to dump a prospect who starts his career with an 0-2 count.

[moonslav59]

40 minutes ago, JoeBrady said:

It is the way of the Red Sox Fan.  We have a lot of fans that will cherish a player forever, based on a 2-HR game from 2 years ago.  And be willing to dump a prospect who starts his career with an 0-2 count.

Good one!

[notin]

3 hours ago, JoeBrady said:

It is the way of the Red Sox Fan.  We have a lot of fans that will cherish a player forever, based on a 2-HR game from 2 years ago.  And be willing to dump a prospect who starts his career with an 0-2 count.

Holy Kristian Campbell, Batman!!

 

With Crawford, the opinion seems to be those 15 innings are reality and the other 377 IP are the outliers…

[mvp 78]

16 minutes ago, notin said:

Holy Kristian Campbell, Batman!!

 

With Crawford, the opinion seems to be those 15 innings are reality and the other 377 IP are the outliers…

2022 77 IP, 5.47 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 12 HR, 1.40 HR/9

2023 129 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 17 HR, 1.18 HR/0

3/30-7/21 119 IP, 3.33 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 19 HR, 1.44 HR/9

7/21-8/2 15 IP, 9.60 ERA, 12.17 FIP, 12 HR, 7.2 HR/9

8/7-9/28 54.2 IP, 5.76 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 8 HR, 1.33 HR/9

Our expectations were set too high after his '23 season. People on here were talking about #2 upside for him. He seems like a back of the rotation guy like we expected. It's fine. It's not the end of the world. He'll probably give up about 1.4 HR/9 every season as he gets pull aired all day long. Only 7 qualified starters did that last year. It's a limited profile. If they traded him, he wouldn't be missed.

[moonslav59]

1 hour ago, mvp 78 said:

2022 77 IP, 5.47 ERA, 4.34 FIP, 12 HR, 1.40 HR/9

2023 129 IP, 4.04 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 17 HR, 1.18 HR/0

3/30-7/21 119 IP, 3.33 ERA, 4.26 FIP, 19 HR, 1.44 HR/9

7/21-8/2 15 IP, 9.60 ERA, 12.17 FIP, 12 HR, 7.2 HR/9

8/7-9/28 54.2 IP, 5.76 ERA, 4.41 FIP, 8 HR, 1.33 HR/9

Our expectations were set too high after his '23 season. People on here were talking about #2 upside for him. He seems like a back of the rotation guy like we expected. It's fine. It's not the end of the world. He'll probably give up about 1.4 HR/9 every season as he gets pull aired all day long. Only 7 qualified starters did that last year. It's a limited profile. If they traded him, he wouldn't be missed.

Good points, and maybe Crawford is more like the guy from mid July> than the one from before, but with the state of pitching in MLB, he'd probably be a #4 or 5 on many team- maybe a #3 on few, assuming he sticks to his 4.35 FIP.

[drewski6]

18 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good points, and maybe Crawford is more like the guy from mid July> than the one from before, but with the state of pitching in MLB, he'd probably be a #4 or 5 on many team- maybe a #3 on few, assuming he sticks to his 4.35 FIP.

well thats not a good assumption.

[drewski6]

its a good caveat.  but if the rest of the league has improved their FIP by 20% since we last saw Kutter, he might as well.  Just because we havent seen him doesnt mean that hes not working on splitters and sweepers and induced break and spin rate and pitch science like everybody else.

[drewski6]

unless hes a block head, in which case he gets thrown in the trash like NBA guards who refuse to learn the 3 pt shot.  Evolve or die.

[mvp 78]

22 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Good points, and maybe Crawford is more like the guy from mid July> than the one from before, but with the state of pitching in MLB, he'd probably be a #4 or 5 on many team- maybe a #3 on few, assuming he sticks to his 4.35 FIP.

He's a backend rotation guy, but the Sox can find a #5 with a higher ceiling than him (they have a few in house). 

[mvp 78]

6 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

its a good caveat.  but if the rest of the league has improved their FIP by 20% since we last saw Kutter, he might as well.  Just because we havent seen him doesnt mean that hes not working on splitters and sweepers and induced break and spin rate and pitch science like everybody else.

LOL WUT?

League average FIP

2021 4.27

2022 3.97

2023 4.33

2024 4.08

2025 4.16

The league got 2% worse, not 20% better. 

[moonslav59]

31 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

its a good caveat.  but if the rest of the league has improved their FIP by 20% since we last saw Kutter, he might as well.  Just because we havent seen him doesnt mean that hes not working on splitters and sweepers and induced break and spin rate and pitch science like everybody else.

The MLB FIP has gone up, then down, recently:

4.27>3.97>4.33>4.08>4.16

It looks like Kutter has been close to the league average.

It's hard enough for us to place value on Kutter. I'm sure many GM would just pass or wait it out to see what he looks like in 2026.

Dobbins is likely a wait and see guy, too.

Harrison might hold the most trade valuer of the 3. Just how much do Kutter and Perales add to a Duran trade? (I'm not sure I wanna part with Tolle or Early, unless we get a big game changer.)

[moonslav59]

24 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

LOL WUT?

League average FIP

2021 4.27

2022 3.97

2023 4.33

2024 4.08

2025 4.16

The league got 2% worse, not 20% better. 

You beat me to it!

[drewski6]

37 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

LOL WUT?

League average FIP

2021 4.27

2022 3.97

2023 4.33

2024 4.08

2025 4.16

The league got 2% worse, not 20% better. 

TY for this.  I had rememberd that I had looked at a few players with similar OPS in 2025 to 2024, but the OPS+ seemed better (again, same OPS).  I had thought this meant that OPS were down, so the same OPS 2025 vs 2024 is actually better (relative to league) which made me think pitching continues to improve

Could have been as dumb as me looking at the wrong column.

[mvp 78]

15 hours ago, drewski6 said:

TY for this.  I had rememberd that I had looked at a few players with similar OPS in 2025 to 2024, but the OPS+ seemed better (again, same OPS).  I had thought this meant that OPS were down, so the same OPS 2025 vs 2024 is actually better (relative to league) which made me think pitching continues to improve

Could have been as dumb as me looking at the wrong column.

For reference, he's a pitch to contact guy, so we'd expect him to have a higher than average FIP. He's also a flyball pitcher and benefits by having Duran, Rafaela and Abreu behind him. He just needs to keep the HR/9 down.

[drewski6]

3 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

For reference, he's a pitch to contact guy, so we'd expect him to have a higher than average FIP. He's also a flyball pitcher and benefits by having Duran, Rafaela and Abreu behind him. He just needs to keep the HR/9 down.

I always liked him ,but Im not sure how much of that is because of his name. Does he even throw a cutter? And can he backdoor it?

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

I always liked him ,but Im not sure how much of that is because of his name. Does he even throw a cutter? And can he backdoor it?

 

[drewski6]

9 minutes ago, mvp 78 said:

 

Well, i feel like an ass for asking if a righty back doors a pitch with glove side run.  Generally I assume righty batter, so that would be the front door. I forgot to add the "to lefties" when i asked if he can backdoor it. My mistake. But TY for the answer.

[mvp 78]

7 minutes ago, drewski6 said:

Well, i feel like an ass for asking if a righty back doors a pitch with glove side run.  Generally I assume righty batter, so that would be the front door. I forgot to add the "to lefties" when i asked if he can backdoor it. My mistake. But TY for the answer.

It's been a while since we've seen this goober and from what we saw in '24, his cutter has monster seat run if anything.

[drewski6]

2 hours ago, mvp 78 said:

It's been a while since we've seen this goober and from what we saw in '24, his cutter has monster seat run if anything.

hahaha, nice

[Behindenemylines]

On 12/4/2025 at 10:22 PM, Old Red said:

Brez sure isn’t afraid to trade off some top Suspects.

Password had five OFs ahead of him with KC move to the OF, and six if you count Yoshida. He was blocked. I think all of the prospects traded were either blocked , or are years from the big leagues.