The John Henry Large and Long Stumbling Block

[moonslav59]

Will we ever see another Large and Long Free Agent signing under John Henry?

One can argue the last one was David Price 10 years ago! Since 2016, the only free agent delas longer than 4 years have been have not really been all that "large:"

$140M/6 Story in '22 (I guess we could count this one.)

$110M/5 JD Martinez in '18

$68M/4 Eovaldi in '19

To get great talent, JH will likely have to go "long" at some point. I'm not sure how many Bregman type deals are out there every winter, and for every Bregman signing, there seems to be a Buehler signing, as well. (Not that $21M is all that "large.")

With an apparent window being open for 3-4 years or more, it seems like this winter would be the time for a strategic Large and Long signing, but expecting JH to break a decade long trend seems like wishful thinking.

[mvp 78]

The Story signing was an afterthought. At the time, it wasn't even considered that big of a deal to us. He's surrounded himself with yes men and young CBO's that will fall in line cheaply. He finally has what he wanted at the end of Moneyball. 

For forty-one million, you built a playoff team. You lost Damon, Giambi, Isringhausen, Pena and you won more games without them than you did with them. You won the exact same number of games that the Yankees won, but the Yankees spent one point four million per win and you paid two hundred and sixty thousand. I know you've taken it in the teeth out there, but the first guy through the wall. It always gets bloody, always. It's the threat of not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people are holding the reins, have their hands on the switch. They go bat s*** crazy. I mean, anybody who's not building a team right and rebuilding it using your model, they're dinosaurs. 

Dude thinks he's a revolutionary because he pockets money. 

[moonslav59]

Well said, MVP. I can understand having more pride by winning while spending less, but we are not winning, anymore.

[mvp 78]

 

[moonslav59]

According to The Baseball Cube, MLB payrolls have been (in Trillions)

3.825 '21

4.201 '22 +16.3%

4.451 '23 + 6.0%

4.907 '24 +10.2%

5.075 '25 +3.5% (not so hyper inflationary.)

'21 to '25: +49%

Sox Opening day Payroll (cots)

180 '21 

207 '22 +15%

181 '23 -10.6%

171 '24 -5.5%

195 '25 +14%

'21 to '25:  +8.3%

This say it all.

[Duran Is The Man]

On 10/31/2025 at 10:23 AM, mvp 78 said:

The Story signing was an afterthought. At the time, it wasn't even considered that big of a deal to us. He's surrounded himself with yes men and young CBO's that will fall in line cheaply. He finally has what he wanted at the end of Moneyball. 

For forty-one million, you built a playoff team. You lost Damon, Giambi, Isringhausen, Pena and you won more games without them than you did with them. You won the exact same number of games that the Yankees won, but the Yankees spent one point four million per win and you paid two hundred and sixty thousand. I know you've taken it in the teeth out there, but the first guy through the wall. It always gets bloody, always. It's the threat of not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people are holding the reins, have their hands on the switch. They go bat s*** crazy. I mean, anybody who's not building a team right and rebuilding it using your model, they're dinosaurs. 

Dude thinks he's a revolutionary because he pockets money. 

yeah...because everyone wants to get the trophy for FEWEST DOLLARS SPENT PER WIN.  just shows you how that POS thinks. 

for 2025, the Dodgers spent second most per win at $3.76M. Mets had the most at $4.11M, Blue Jays spent $2.715M and Henry's Sox spent $2.24M per win. Maybe he should sell the Sox to somebody that gives a s*** and he can buy the Marlins back.  They didn't win s***, but they only spent $858K per win last year. which, i'm absolutely sure, gave him a big ol' geezer boner.

[Hitch]

On 10/31/2025 at 3:23 PM, mvp 78 said:

The Story signing was an afterthought. At the time, it wasn't even considered that big of a deal to us. He's surrounded himself with yes men and young CBO's that will fall in line cheaply. He finally has what he wanted at the end of Moneyball. 

For forty-one million, you built a playoff team. You lost Damon, Giambi, Isringhausen, Pena and you won more games without them than you did with them. You won the exact same number of games that the Yankees won, but the Yankees spent one point four million per win and you paid two hundred and sixty thousand. I know you've taken it in the teeth out there, but the first guy through the wall. It always gets bloody, always. It's the threat of not just the way of doing business, but in their minds it's threatening the game. But really what it's threatening is their livelihoods, it's threatening their jobs, it's threatening the way that they do things. And every time that happens, whether it's the government or a way of doing business or whatever it is, the people are holding the reins, have their hands on the switch. They go bat s*** crazy. I mean, anybody who's not building a team right and rebuilding it using your model, they're dinosaurs. 

Dude thinks he's a revolutionary because he pockets money. 

I don't think it's because he sees himself as revolutionary for pocketing money, but because like all business people, wants success at the lowest possible price and is constantly looking at/for value. 

He also wants to outsmart everyone else and be seen to be the smartest person in the room is my guess.

I think if he sees a possibility of winning he'll spend, if he thinks the organisation isn't in the right health to do so, he won't.

Of course, this is about to be tested to the max because we are now fully entering our window.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

5 hours ago, Hitch said:

I don't think it's because he sees himself as revolutionary for pocketing money, but because like all business people, wants success at the lowest possible price and is constantly looking at/for value. 

He also wants to outsmart everyone else and be seen to be the smartest person in the room is my guess.

I think if he sees a possibility of winning he'll spend, if he thinks the organisation isn't in the right health to do so, he won't.

Of course, this is about to be tested to the max because we are now fully entering our window.

For a front office driven entirely by projections, there are always the prospects of paralysis by overanalysis.

Where are the statistics that measure a man's heart and guts?

Can anyone even imagine a Breslow-Henry regime allowing a George Springer to risk the rest of his career by playing in the World Series when he's so beat up he probably needs a clubhouse guy to tie his spikes for him?

Springer's side injury that nullified his power swing looked similar to Roman Anthony's, and we know there's no way they'd let Anthony play in that much pain. Too much invested in him at age 21; Springer's 36 with only one year left under contract for $24 mil.

(I know they let Schilling limp around on the mound in '04, but those were hungrier times, and he was acquired specifically to win a ring that year)

[moonslav59]

8 hours ago, Hitch said:

I don't think it's because he sees himself as revolutionary for pocketing money, but because like all business people, wants success at the lowest possible price and is constantly looking at/for value. 

He also wants to outsmart everyone else and be seen to be the smartest person in the room is my guess.

I think if he sees a possibility of winning he'll spend, if he thinks the organisation isn't in the right health to do so, he won't.

Of course, this is about to be tested to the max because we are now fully entering our window.

One could have said the window opened, this year, and JH did spend way more than previous seasons, last winter, so that was a sign he is aware the window is open. The Devers dump kinda dampened that idea a bit, but some serious spending occurred and trends were upended. 

Bregman signed to the highest AAV in Red Sox history. Buehler signed to the highest AAV for a pitcher since Price. Crochet signed the second largest and longest Sox pitching contract ever. The total AAV signed last winter was by far the most in a very long time, if not ever. Yes, almost all was spent on 1-2 year deals, but we ended up extending Chapman before his deal ended.

31.6 Bregman ($40M counting deferred)

21.1 Buehler

10.8 Chapman

9.1 Sandoval

2.3 Wilson

That's about $75M AAV during the same season we extended Crochet (28.3), Chapman (13.3), Anthony (16.3)& Campbell (7.5).

We dumped the $30M x 8 Devers deal but took back $12M x 2 for Hicks ($10.3M AAV.)

We do have some reason to hope JH is AWARE and will act accordingly, but I will not let myself expect it to happen.

[Hitch]

19 hours ago, 5GoldGlovesOF,75 said:

For a front office driven entirely by projections, there are always the prospects of paralysis by overanalysis.

Where are the statistics that measure a man's heart and guts?

Can anyone even imagine a Breslow-Henry regime allowing a George Springer to risk the rest of his career by playing in the World Series when he's so beat up he probably needs a clubhouse guy to tie his spikes for him?

Springer's side injury that nullified his power swing looked similar to Roman Anthony's, and we know there's no way they'd let Anthony play in that much pain. Too much invested in him at age 21; Springer's 36 with only one year left under contract for $24 mil.

(I know they let Schilling limp around on the mound in '04, but those were hungrier times, and he was acquired specifically to win a ring that year)

Yeah, these are good points. It would be interesting to see how much of this stuff they take into a account, or whether it's mostly/all data driven.

Seeing the impression Bregman made to the youngsters, you'd hope that this sort of intangible factors into their thinking. Glue guys might not light up the stat sheet but they offer so much to their organisations beyond the underlying numbers. 

[moonslav59]

3 hours ago, Hitch said:

Yeah, these are good points. It would be interesting to see how much of this stuff they take into a account, or whether it's mostly/all data driven.

Seeing the impression Bregman made to the youngsters, you'd hope that this sort of intangible factors into their thinking. Glue guys might not light up the stat sheet but they offer so much to their organisations beyond the underlying numbers. 

I'm pretty sure Cora notices, and Brez should, too. They were both gutsy players.

[Hitch]

39 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

I'm pretty sure Cora notices, and Brez should, too. They were both gutsy players.

Hard to say with Brez - he appears definitely analytically inclined shall we say. But as ex-ball player you'd hope he has the other brain on active, too.

[moonslav59]

30 minutes ago, Hitch said:

Hard to say with Brez - he appears definitely analytically inclined shall we say. But as ex-ball player you'd hope he has the other brain on active, too.

I think using analytics is a good thing, but it should not be the be-all-end-all factor.

I'm sure Cora has informed Brez on wanting Bregman back and all the reasons why.