Article: Red Sox-Yankees Wild Card Game One Thread, By The Numbers

[Brock Beauchamp]

Tuesday, September 30 at 6:08pm Eastern time, the Red Sox visit Yankee Stadium for game one with left-handers Garrett Crochet and Max Fried taking the mound. Crochet’s strikeout rate sits at 31.3 percent with a 5.7 percent walk rate, with a FIP of 2.95. He also faced New York on September 14 and worked six innings with three earned runs and 12 strikeouts.  

Fried enters the day with a FIP of 3.07, and he most recently saw Boston on September 13, when he covered six innings and allowed three earned runs with one home run.  

Yankees Hitters vs Crochet:
Aaron Judge’s overall baseline remains elite, and he just finished the regular season with a .331 average to clinch the AL batting title. His OPS is sitting above 1.10 through the middle of September, a snapshot of his form as the month wound down. Judge against left-handed pitching is also a specific pressure point for any southpaw; he posted an incredible 1.279 OPS against lefties this season.

Garrett Crochet vs. New York Yankees: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Paul Goldschmidt	R	16	15	2	0	0	0	0	1	5	.133	.188	.133	.321	0	0	0	0	0
2	Aaron Judge	R	15	15	3	0	0	2	2	0	11	.200	.200	.600	.800	0	0	0	0	0
3	Cody Bellinger	L	14	14	5	0	0	1	2	0	2	.357	.357	.571	.929	0	0	0	0	1
4	Amed Rosario	R	10	9	6	1	0	1	3	1	1	.667	.700	1.111	1.811	0	0	0	0	0
5	Ben Rice	L	9	8	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	.125	.125	.250	.375	0	0	0	0	0
6	Austin Wells	L	9	9	2	1	0	1	4	0	4	.222	.222	.667	.889	0	0	0	0	0
7	José Caballero	R	8	7	0	0	0	0	0	1	5	.000	.125	.000	.125	0	0	0	0	0
8	Giancarlo Stanton	R	7	7	2	0	0	1	1	0	5	.286	.286	.714	1.000	0	0	0	0	0
9	Jasson Domínguez	B	6	6	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	1
10	Anthony Volpe	R	6	5	2	0	0	0	0	0	2	.400	.400	.400	.800	1	0	0	0	0
11	Jazz Chisholm Jr.	L	5	4	0	0	0	0	0	1	3	.000	.200	.000	.200	0	0	0	0	0
12	Trent Grisham	L	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
13	Ryan McMahon	L	3	3	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	.333	.333	.333	.667	0	0	0	0	1
14	Austin Slater	R	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	3	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 9/30/2025.

Red Sox Hitters vs Fried:
Trevor Story was Boston’s leading September bat by several measures, posting a .302/.337/.458 September line. Masataka Yoshida posted a 126 wRC+ in September as well. 

Max Fried vs. Boston Red Sox: Current Batters Table

Rk	Player	B	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS	SH	SF	IBB	HBP	GIDP
1	Trevor Story	R	17	16	4	1	0	2	5	1	5	.250	.294	.688	.982	0	0	0	0	0
2	Alex Bregman	R	12	9	5	0	0	1	2	3	1	.556	.667	.889	1.556	0	0	0	0	0
3	Connor Wong	R	11	10	3	1	0	0	1	1	3	.300	.364	.400	.764	0	0	0	0	1
4	Jarren Duran	L	10	10	0	0	0	0	0	0	5	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
5	Ceddanne Rafaela	R	10	10	2	0	0	0	0	0	3	.200	.200	.200	.400	0	0	0	0	0
6	Romy González	R	9	7	2	0	1	0	0	2	3	.286	.444	.571	1.016	0	0	0	0	1
7	Rob Refsnyder	R	9	8	2	0	0	0	0	1	3	.250	.333	.250	.583	0	0	0	0	0
8	Nate Eaton	R	5	3	2	0	0	0	0	2	0	.667	.800	.667	1.467	0	0	0	0	0
9	Steven Matz	R	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
10	Carlos Narváez	R	3	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	.000	.000	.000	.000	0	0	0	0	0
11	Nick Sogard	B	3	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	.667	.667	.667	1.333	0	0	0	0	0

Provided by Stathead.com: Found with Stathead. See Full Results.
Generated 9/30/2025.

Defensive Alignments:
Defense could swing a few batted balls. Boston has Ceddanne Rafaela in center, and Statcast credits him with +22 OAA in 2025, topping the outfield leaderboard. The Yankees’ middle infield features Jazz Chisholm Jr., who sits at a +5 OAA and in the 89th percentile. With two left-handed starters on the mound, run prevention on grounders and liners becomes more salient, and both clubs can deploy plus defenders up the middle. Overall, Boston has a significant edge in defense, posting a +11 OAA against the -7 of the Yankees.

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[Maxbialystock]

Good stuff. Thanks.  I think winning tonight is crucial and not easily done.  

[moonslav59]

Crochet might need to allow no runs.

[d-money]

10 minutes ago, moonslav59 said:

Crochet might need to allow no runs.

You can say the same for their pitcher. Hopefully crochet shows why he is this year’s cy young winner. We had a better e.r.a as a starting staff than the Yankees. 

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, d-money said:

You can say the same for their pitcher. Hopefully crochet shows why he is this year’s cy young winner. We had a better e.r.a as a starting staff than the Yankees. 

Our pen was way better than theirs, despite their Bednar addition vs our Matz addition. (We also got Slaten back.)

[vegasbob]

Bregman , more so than anyone in the lineup can make the Sox competitive today with a couple of XBH, preferably a HR.  

Fried  has already sat down Lowe and Abreu, without throwing a pitch.  Duran is the only LH'er in the lineup. Sogard starts due to his switching abilities.    That lineup gives us 2 good PH possibilities when Boone gets into his BP late  with a RH'er.

Tough matchup both ways, hoping it doesn't come down to errors, poor baserunning or in game injury to any Sox.   Take our chances in NY, it's what we played for all year.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Bregman reported to be 'under the weather,' but he's scheduled to play.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

It's mandatory the Sox win tonight. It's not mandatory that the Yankems win tonight.

[Old Red]

25 minutes ago, vegasbob said:

Bregman , more so than anyone in the lineup can make the Sox competitive today with a couple of XBH, preferably a HR.  

Fried  has already sat down Lowe and Abreu, without throwing a pitch.  Duran is the only LH'er in the lineup. Sogard starts due to his switching abilities.    That lineup gives us 2 good PH possibilities when Boone gets into his BP late  with a RH'er.

Tough matchup both ways, hoping it doesn't come down to errors, poor baserunning or in game injury to any Sox.   Take our chances in NY, it's what we played for all year.

No big deal on Abreu, and, or Lowe not in the lineup as neither was doing that much lately anyway. GOshida yes. Duran is 0-10 against Fried with 5 K’s.

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

1 minute ago, Old Red said:

No big deal on Abreu, and, or Lowe not in the lineup as neither was doing that much lately anyway. GOshida yes. Duran is 0-10 against Fried with 10 K’s.

Duran is overdue.

[FredLynn]

Watching Story K on balls outside or in the dirt is getting really old

[moonslav59]

2 hours ago, FredLynn said:

Watching Story K on balls outside or in the dirt is getting really old

How about stealing bases and scoring a big insurance run?

Old?