Red Sox (Harrison) vs Rays (Houser): 9/20/25, 7:05pm

[Brandon Glick]

Obviously, the goal is to win every possible game from here on out, but let's do a fun would you rather:

1) Win the No. 5 seed, which means you travel to NY to take on the Yankees in the Wild Card (and then, most likely, the Tigers in the ALDS)
OR
2) Win the No. 6 seed, which means traveling to (probably) Seattle for Wild Card, and then Blue Jays in ALDS.

 

[Maxbialystock]

15 minutes ago, Brandon Glick said:

Obviously, the goal is to win every possible game from here on out, but let's do a fun would you rather:

1) Win the No. 5 seed, which means you travel to NY to take on the Yankees in the Wild Card (and then, most likely, the Tigers in the ALDS)
OR
2) Win the No. 6 seed, which means traveling to (probably) Seattle for Wild Card, and then Blue Jays in ALDS.

 

Excellent, provocative questions.  Gotta go with #1 if only because the West Coast is so far away from Boston.  Plus the Mariners are hot, hot, hot.  Detroit is chilly, and the Sox did well at Yankee Stadium.  

[Maxbialystock]

For tonight it's likely Bregman, Eaton, Lowe, and Story are in the lineup because all four have faced Houser and hit him.  It's hot in Tampa, even at a 7 pm start, so I think might go with Wong instead of Narvaez, who caught for half of 3 hours last night at 87 degrees.

Otherwise, pretty much the same lineup as last night.  

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Excellent, provocative questions.  Gotta go with #1 if only because the West Coast is so far away from Boston.  Plus the Mariners are hot, hot, hot.  Detroit is chilly, and the Sox did well at Yankee Stadium.  

I agree, but after 8 more games, maybe DET is hot, hot, hot and the M's are chilly cold.

[moonslav59]

17 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

For tonight it's likely Bregman, Eaton, Lowe, and Story are in the lineup because all four have faced Houser and hit him.  It's hot in Tampa, even at a 7 pm start, so I think might go with Wong instead of Narvaez, who caught for half of 3 hours last night at 87 degrees.

Otherwise, pretty much the same lineup as last night.  

We do not have a day after night game, this series and have Monday off, so maybe Narvaez starts the next two games.

We also have 3 catchers on the roster, so this might be the time we use it. We could PH or replace Narvaez at some point in the next two games.

[Deja Doh]

Forget #5 or 6, let's get #1.   Let's finish these last 8 games, 8-0.

[moonslav59]

Just now, Deja Doh said:

Forget #5 or 6, let's get #1.   Let's finish these last 8 games, 8-0.

YES! We play 3 vs TOR.

We are also just 2 games from #2 (NYY, where we have the tiebreaker) and 1 game from #3 (SEA) or 4. DET is one of the two teams a game ahead of us, and we play 3 vs them.

[notin]

1 hour ago, Deja Doh said:

Forget #5 or 6, let's get #1.   Let's finish these last 8 games, 8-0.

I like the attitude…

[moonslav59]

2 minutes ago, notin said:

I like the attitude…

We have a tough schedule, but playing 3 vs DET puts us squarely in the hunt for the #4 slot.

Even if we did not play DET, we are 2 games behind the #2 slot and 1 game behind the #3 and #4 slots.

This team has been so up and down, and we are due for an "up." Over the season we have seen not only some "ups," but extended ones. Almost all of them were after some tough stretches where many of us felt serious doubt about the Sox chances ate being playoff contenders.

April: won 5 in a row and later won 6 of 7 and a 3 straight win stretch.

May: won 4 of 5 twice in a bad month.

June: won 6 straight and expanded to 8 or 9 and 10 of 12.

July: won 10 straight (12 orf 13.) Later, we won 9 of 10 into August, including...

AUG: won 7 straight (july 29-Aug 5) Later, we won 7 of 8 vs NYY & BAL.

SEP: we won 3 straight, twice. Are we due for a 6 of 8 stretch?

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

I agree, but after 8 more games, maybe DET is hot, hot, hot and the M's are chilly cold.

That could happen, but I'm basing my answer on where we are today.  Plus the Sox don't do well on the West Coast.  

[Maxbialystock]

1 hour ago, moonslav59 said:

We have a tough schedule, but playing 3 vs DET puts us squarely in the hunt for the #4 slot.

Even if we did not play DET, we are 2 games behind the #2 slot and 1 game behind the #3 and #4 slots.

This team has been so up and down, and we are due for an "up." Over the season we have seen not only some "ups," but extended ones. Almost all of them were after some tough stretches where many of us felt serious doubt about the Sox chances ate being playoff contenders.

April: won 5 in a row and later won 6 of 7 and a 3 straight win stretch.

May: won 4 of 5 twice in a bad month.

June: won 6 straight and expanded to 8 or 9 and 10 of 12.

July: won 10 straight (12 orf 13.) Later, we won 9 of 10 into August, including...

AUG: won 7 straight (july 29-Aug 5) Later, we won 7 of 8 vs NYY & BAL.

SEP: we won 3 straight, twice. Are we due for a 6 of 8 stretch?

Good stuff.  

[Maxbialystock]

3 hours ago, Maxbialystock said:

For tonight it's likely Bregman, Eaton, Lowe, and Story are in the lineup because all four have faced Houser and hit him.  It's hot in Tampa, even at a 7 pm start, so I think might go with Wong instead of Narvaez, who caught for half of 3 hours last night at 87 degrees.

Otherwise, pretty much the same lineup as last night.  

Same lineup as last night.  Wong rides the pine.  

[moonslav59]

1 minute ago, Maxbialystock said:

That could happen, but I'm basing my answer on where we are today.  Plus the Sox don't do well on the West Coast.  

Max, how many times have you based your opinion on what has happened in the last few days or weeks, only to see it all change in a moment?

I do believe in trends as indicating probabilities of what will happen, next, but sometimes you seem to really lock into them.

[moonslav59]

18 minutes ago, Maxbialystock said:

Good stuff.  

For those who think trends keep repeating themselves, I wonder why they cling to our recent trend of playing poorly will continue, while our season long trend of following poor stretches with even longer good stretches carries so little weight.

I'm not predicting a 6 of 8 or 7 of 8 winning stretch to end the regular season, but our season long M. O. seems to indicate there is a decent chance we pull one off.

There are very few examples, this year, where we lost something like 5 of our last 8 games (like now) and followed that with losing another 4 or 5 of 8. In fact, we've followed more losing stretches with some very nice winning stretches and even long winning streaks.

Here is what I found for losing stretches back-to back:

Lost 5 of 6 to start May, tehn won 4 of 5, but followed that with losing 5 of 6. This doesn't really fit the model of back to back bad 8 games stretches.

We did follow that losing 5 of 6 stretch in mid May with a losing 6 of 10 stretch. Then, a 3 of 5 stretch, so there was a long stretch in May that showed we have done it.

In June we lost 6 in a row, but that was sandwiched between two of our best stretches of the season: winning 8 of 9 beforehand and 13 of 15 afterwards.

The only other time we've come close to back to back 8+ game stretches is recently, but neither stretch was horrific. We lost 5 of 8 from Aug 29 to Sept 6th, then followed that with losing 5 of 11, which isn;'t even a losing stretch by definition.

It was actually losing 5 of 8, winning 3 in a row, tehn losing 5 of 8.

Simply put, it is just not our habit to have back to back bad 7-8 game stretches. In fact it is quite the opposite, yet a few doom and gloomers feel certain this is a flop year and we will break our season long mold in the next 8 games.

[mvp 78]

[moonslav59]

We need more crooked number innings on offense. That 6 was nice, last night.

[moonslav59]

DET lost to ATL and CLE beat up on Joe Ryan and the Twins, Going into tonight, CLE is just 1.5 behind DET and 1 behind BOS & HOU.

BOS has the tiebreaker vs CLE, so it's really like 2 GB them, but CLE has the tiebreaker with HOU, so a tie with them is as good as a win.

A BOS win, tonight, ties them with DET and helps us either keep pace or gain a game on CLE, depending on hos they do tonight.

[Beaneater]

I was hoping to see Wilyer Abreu DH on the lineup card tonight...

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

3 minutes ago, Beaneater said:

I was hoping to see Wilyer Abreu DH on the lineup card tonight...

'Soon.'

[Beaneater]

Right. I had forgotten my high school Spanish. 

[vegasbob]

3 minutes ago, Beaneater said:

I was hoping to see Wilyer Abreu DH on the lineup card tonight...

That's  why hope is rarely a successful strategy.  Some players have recovered faster from an amputation than Wilyer .

Even if he returns, after missing a month, he will not be effective quickly

 

 

[vegasbob]

3 minutes ago, Beaneater said:

Right. I had forgotten my high school Spanish. 

Mañana matters south of the border 

[Deja Doh]

What do we expect from Harrison tonight?  He's never pitched against Tampa before.  Will he give us 5?  The 3 scoreless innings he gave us 10 days ago against the A's are tough to analyze.  Hopefully he gets it done.

[Maxbialystock]

2 hours ago, moonslav59 said:

Max, how many times have you based your opinion on what has happened in the last few days or weeks, only to see it all change in a moment?

I do believe in trends as indicating probabilities of what will happen, next, but sometimes you seem to really lock into them.

Only a million or so times. 

Of course everything can change in a moment. 

But the OP asks a simple question--who do you prefer to face, @ Seattle and then the Jays or the Yankees and Tiger?    Based on what I know right now I vastly prefer door #2.  Also, I think the most unpredictable team still in the hunt for the AL postseason is our own Red Sox.  

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Rafaela is 16 for 37 against the Rays this season.

[Maxbialystock]

2 minutes ago, Deja Doh said:

What do we expect from Harrison tonight?  He's never pitched against Tampa before.  Will he give us 5?  The 3 scoreless innings he gave us 10 days ago against the A's are tough to analyze.  Hopefully he gets it done.

Frankly, I think anything is possible.  The Sox pitching and hitting right now are both unpredictable.  

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Three things are certain; death, taxes and Duran not getting on base in the first inning.

[vegasbob]

Tigers lose. Guardians win first of 2

[vegasbob]

Rays continue to show the true value of defense. That was a DP

[FredLynn]

Bases loaded nobody out= no runs